Before we get to the big questions for Week 12, let’s start with a tackle on a bye: How valuable is Joe Alt? Los Angeles totaled just 135 yards last week (the fourth fewest in any game this season) against a Jacksonville defense that has struggled. Justin Herbert’s YPA has dropped from 7.9 with Alt on the field to 6.5 without him. Most strikingly, the Chargers’ EPA/pass also falls from first to 30th, and the sample continues to grow.

It’s bad news for Los Angeles’ receivers, as Herbert’s average depth of target declines. The Chargers’ offensive line is in a tough state after losing what appears to be one of the more valuable players in football, and the team is likely addressing the issue during their bye.

Here are the biggest questions entering Week 12.

Is it Derrick Henry season?

Last week, Henry became the first running back to rush for 100 yards against the Browns this season, and Cleveland’s defense is especially stout at home. He remains a fantasy disappointment as the RB16 this year, but Henry is notorious for producing more over the season’s final months. Henry has also been extra sensitive to game scripts throughout his career, and the Ravens are favored in all but one of the remaining games on their schedule. Henry has RB1 upside this week with Baltimore 13.5-point home favorites against the Jets sans Quinnen Williams, and he then gets the abominable Bengals run defense twice over the next three weeks. Fantasy managers will need Lamar Jackson’s health to cooperate, but this is the time of the season when Henry begins to carry fantasy teams.

How does Shedeur Sanders look?   

The football world is curious how Sanders will perform during his first career NFL start, especially after his inauspicious relief appearance last week. Sanders started the second half after Dillon Gabriel exited with a concussion, and it went even worse than expected. The Browns were shut out over the final two quarters, when Sanders had 20 net passing yards on 16 attempts (-34.8% CPOE!). In Sanders’ defense, it was apparently the first action he’d ever seen with Cleveland’s ones, and the Ravens’ defense is playing much better.

All Browns pass catchers belong on fantasy benches this week, as Sanders’ passing yards total is set at just 159.5. The Browns have a lowly 16.5-point team total despite a favorable matchup indoors against the Raiders. This game is projected to produce just 36.5 points, and fantasy managers are just hoping Sanders can keep Quinshon Judkins’ value afloat.

How doomed is Atlanta with Kirk Cousins?

Cousins was a disaster after replacing an injured Michael Penix last week, getting just 3.4 YPA and posting a -27.5 completion percentage over expected — which put him in the first percentile. Penix produced 175 passing yards on 16 attempts, while Cousins got 48 on 14. Drake London had 108 of his 119 receiving yards at halftime, while most of Bijan Robinson’s production came before Cousins entered as well. Cousins will be able to practice with Atlanta’s ones now, but he remains incredibly hindered by the Achilles surgery.

Cousins has thrown just one touchdown pass over his past 217 attempts, and Raheem Morris has acknowledged the Falcons’ offense will look different with Penix out for the season. Penix wasn’t an All-Pro, but a move to a possible bottom-three QB situation is clearly bad news for London and Robinson. London may not miss much time, but he’ll be returning from a PCL injury with major QB questions. Robinson saw a carry inside the 5-yard line last week for the first time since Week 1, but I’ve moved Jahmyr Gibbs higher for the rest of the season, given the Cousins factor. Darnell Mooney and Kyle Pitts will see a short-term bump in targets, but the Falcons are underdogs to the Saints and projected to score fewer than 20 points this week.

Has Puka Nacua’s role changed?

Nacua has seen a notable decline in usage over the past three games since the Rams started using 13-personnel. He’s been the WR42 in expected fantasy points, while experiencing a sharp decrease in first-read target share (WR18). He ranks 21st in overall target share (21.9%) and 66th in route share (63.6%). Los Angeles has been in 13-personnel for more than 20% of its dropbacks for three straight weeks, when Davante Adams is featured and Nacua sits out. Matthew Stafford has a 9:0 TD:INT ratio over 38 dropbacks in 13P, so the formation isn’t going away.

Puka Nacua since the Rams started running 13 personnel (~10 dropbacks per game from Wk9-11):

+ 63.6% route share (66th of 108 WRs)
+ 21.9% target share (21st)
+ 11.6 XFP/G (30th)

Prior to that…

+ 78% route share (40th of 108 WRs)
+ 31% target share (4th)
+ 17.3 XFP/G (7th)…

— Dataroma (@ffdataroma) November 17, 2025

Nacua remains a high-end WR1 and could blow up against a pass-funnel defense Sunday night, but Jaxon Smith-Njigba is cemented as fantasy’s WR1 with Nacua’s role change. Offering Nacua for a suspended Ja’Marr Chase might pay dividends down the road, too.

What does New England’s backfield look like?

TreVeyon Henderson has produced back-to-back top-five RB fantasy weeks, but Rhamondre Stevenson is targeting Sunday to return from his toe injury. The rookie has impressed with a bigger workload over the past two games, but Mike Vrabel has made it clear he trusts Stevenson far more. Stevenson remains the favorite for work during passing downs and in short-yardage, as coaches try to find a “sweet spot” regarding their usage.

While it will likely become a messy situation moving forward, both Henderson and Stevenson can be started with confidence this week, as the Bengals have allowed 20% more RB fantasy points than the next-worst defense.

Is Davis Mills an upgrade for Nico Collins?

Collins was fantasy’s WR29 over Weeks 1-8, but he’s been the WR7 over the past three weeks since Mills replaced an injured C.J. Stroud. Mills has averaged 253 catchable air yards over the past two weeks, during which time Collins owns the No. 1 Utilization Score among wide receivers. Meanwhile, Stroud’s season high in a game this year has been 189 catchable air yards. Matchups have helped, but the Texans also faced Denver’s elite secondary over the three-game span.

Collins gets a tougher matchup Thursday night, facing a run-funnel Buffalo defense, but his fantasy value is up with Mills. Stroud will obviously get his job back once healthy, which suddenly looks like a downgrade for Collins.

Will Jaxson Dart still run as much when he returns?

Dart returned to a limited practice on Wednesday and is making progress toward coming back from his concussion. Whenever the rookie QB returns, the biggest question is if he’ll continue to run. Dart has already been evaluated for four concussions over seven NFL starts. He led all quarterbacks in designed runs and took 75+ hits despite not starting until Week 4. The rushing has helped Dart be fantasy’s QB3 since becoming a starter — with more than half of his fantasy production coming from running – but it also led to multiple injuries.

The Giants recorded the league’s lowest pass rate over expected by a wide margin last week with Jameis Winston. The organization wants to protect Dart, but he may not be able to help himself.

Can Michael Wilson repeat last week’s breakout performance?

Wilson had failed to capitalize when given bigger opportunities over his first three years in the league, but he looked like a star last week with the help of Jacoby Brissett under center (and Marvin Harrison sidelined). Wilson led the league in catches (15), targets (18) and receiving yards (185), and his 33% target share was higher than all but one game for Harrison this season. The most yards Harrison has ever logged across a two-game span is 194. The Cardinals have averaged an NFL-high 320 air yards per game with Brissett.

Game script and garbage time stats have undoubtedly helped, but Wilson gets a favorable matchup to run back last week’s performance. Jacksonville is the league’s biggest pass-funnel defense, as Jaguars’ opponents have the highest pass rate over expected by a wide margin. Moreover, Jacksonville has allowed the sixth fewest fantasy points to the slot (where Greg Dortch mostly plays) but the most to outside receivers this season. I have Wilson as a top-20 WR this week with Harrison already ruled out again.

How many points will the Lions put up?

Jared Goff completed only two of his final 18 pass attempts and posted a 37.8 completion percentage during the Lions’ ugly loss last week. Detroit scored a season-low nine points while outdoors against a Philadelphia defense that looks increasingly dominant. It’s safe to expect a monster bounce-back performance at home against a shaky Giants defense. Detroit sports a league-high 31.5-point implied team total, and fantasy managers will be rewarded.

The Giants have yielded the most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to quarterbacks over the past five weeks, so Goff is a must-start back at home. Amon-Ra St. Brown owns the league’s highest target share (39.4%) and leads all WRs in fantasy points per route run versus man coverage, which the Giants have used at the league’s second-highest rate (35.5%). St. Brown is my WR1 this week and a DFS target. Meanwhile, Jameson Williams is seeing more horizontal-breaking routes and is a borderline top 15 WR this week with Sam LaPorta out.

Jahmyr Gibbs’ target share has been way up with Dan Campbell calling plays, and New York has the worst run defense in the league. I have Gibbs ranked over Jonathan Taylor this week. Brock Wright is a deep sleeper, and David Montgomery deserves an upgrade as well with Detroit’s impending offensive explosion.

Is Daniel Jones turning into a pumpkin?

Jones was in the MVP conversation earlier this season, but he went into Indy’s bye after back-to-back worrisome performances. He threw more picks, took more sacks and committed four more fumbles over Weeks 9-10 than he had previously all season. His turnover-worthy play percentage went from first to second worst, while his pressure-to-sack rate experienced a similar tumble. Jones has a long career of mediocre play, so even a small sample is cause for concern.

Daniel Jones…

Weeks 1-8:
3 INTs, 9 sacks, 2 fumbles

Weeks 9-10:
4 INTs, 12 sacks, 6 fumbles

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) November 19, 2025

The answer to how Jones performs moving forward is almost certainly “somewhere in between” his early-season play and his recent rough stretch, although things may get worse before they get better. The Colts face three difficult pass defenses over the next four games but return home for favorable matchups during fantasy’s final two weeks.