The Athletic has live coverage of USC vs. Oregon.

Three years in a row, Michigan featured prominently in every College Football Playoff rankings reveal and every Big Ten Championship Game scenario. Nobody had to ask what the Wolverines were playing for. It was all right there in front of them.

Then, last season, Michigan was out of the CFP race before the first batch of rankings was released. This year, the Wolverines have been living in the in-between, not quite in the race but not quite out of it, either.

All of that could change if Michigan wins its next two games against Maryland and Ohio State. At 10-2, a team that’s been on the fringes of the CFP conversation would be right in the thick of it. That has brought the energy of a Playoff race to Michigan’s practice field, even if the No. 18 Wolverines are stuck behind a bunch of other CFP hopefuls at the moment.

“We’re 8-2. All our goals are in front of us,” coach Sherrone Moore said. “We’re playing for a lot. We’re playing meaningful football in November, which is what you ask for as a football coach.”

The Wolverines have been in must-win mode since losing to USC in mid-October. They narrowly escaped Northwestern last week, winning on a last-second field goal despite committing five turnovers. Slipping up on Saturday at Maryland (4-6, 1-6 Big Ten), a team that’s lost six games in a row and hasn’t won since Sept. 20, would render all CFP scenarios moot.

“Everybody knows what’s ahead, but we’ve got to go prepare for this one like our lives depend on it,” Moore said. “It’s a Playoff game for us in this building. There’s no trap game with this one.”

Here’s a primer on what’s at stake for Michigan in the final two weeks of the regular season.

CFP implications

Around Ann Arbor, it’s widely assumed that Michigan will make the CFP if the Wolverines beat Maryland and Ohio State. But … are we sure about that?

The Athletic’s model has Michigan’s Playoff chances at 5 percent, reflecting Michigan’s underdog status against Ohio State on Nov. 29. Even if the Wolverines win their next two games, the model projects them in the CFP field only 35 percent of the time.

Now, some caveats. A lot can change with the teams in front of Michigan in the CFP rankings. It’s also hard to predict how the CFP committee, a group of human beings, would respond to another Michigan upset against Ohio State. Handing the No. 1 team its first loss is the kind of thing that could cause the committee to radically shift its thinking. Michigan will have recency bias working in its favor, and if you believe brands matter at all, the Wolverines could get a subconscious bump from some in the room.

Even if the model is underrating Michigan’s odds a bit, the Wolverines aren’t a sure thing at 10-2. As of now, Michigan’s best wins came against 7-3 Washington and 7-3 Nebraska, neither of which is ranked in the CFP Top 25. Michigan’s two losses came on the road against No. 8 Oklahoma and No. 15 USC. There’s not a lot, good or bad, to separate Michigan from the clump of two-loss teams.

Among the key questions that will be answered in the next two weeks:

• What happens with Oregon and USC? Saturday’s game between the No. 7 Ducks and No. 15 Trojans is a big one. The Ducks don’t have a Top 25 win and could plummet in the rankings if they lose. The Trojans dominated Michigan at home and should stay in front of the Wolverines as long as they keep winning. A win against Ohio State should be enough to move Michigan in front of one of these teams, but not necessarily both.

• Is the ACC a one-bid league? The highest-ranked ACC team, No. 13 Miami, is not in position to play in the conference championship game. The ACC champ, which could be Georgia Tech, Virginia or possibly Pitt or SMU, will be in, but it’s hard to see another ACC team getting in ahead of 10-2 Michigan. Georgia Tech would be the potential exception if the Yellow Jackets beat Georgia but lose in the ACC Championship Game.

• How many SEC upsets? Michigan is sitting behind three two-loss teams from the SEC: No. 8 Oklahoma, No. 10 Alabama and No. 14 Vanderbilt. The Commodores still have to play at No. 20 Tennessee, and Alabama has to play at Auburn. The Sooners finish at home against No. 22 Missouri and LSU. To have a shot at the CFP, Michigan is going to need to leapfrog somebody — probably multiple somebodies — from the SEC.

• Could Texas be a problem? The committee kept 7-3 Texas one spot ahead of Michigan despite the Longhorns’ 35-10 loss to Georgia. The only way that ends up mattering is if Texas upsets No. 3 Texas A&M and Michigan upsets No. 1 Ohio State. Is the gap between the Buckeyes and Aggies wide enough to justify moving Michigan ahead of the Longhorns? Probably, but it’s not an ironclad certainty.

Big Ten Championship Game scenarios

I wouldn’t advise Michigan fans to spend a lot of time planning a trip to Indianapolis for the conference championship game. The Wolverines would need a bunch of things to break their way for that to happen, though it’s technically still on the table.

Assuming Indiana beats Purdue and clinches a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game, Michigan would need a win against Ohio State and help from the West Coast. Michigan needs USC to lose one of its remaining games against Oregon or UCLA, as the Trojans would have a head-to-head tiebreaker. Assuming a USC loss Saturday at Oregon, Michigan would then need the Ducks to lose to Washington based on winning percentages of conference opponents.

This also could work the other way around. If USC beats Oregon, Michigan would need the Trojans to lose their final game against UCLA, which would leave Michigan and Ohio State as the only one-loss teams.

Big Ten bowl picture

This is the conversation no one wants to have, which is why I saved it for last. If Michigan loses to Ohio State, the Wolverines are most likely headed back to Florida for another New Year’s Eve bowl game.

The Athletic’s bowl projections currently have Michigan facing Tennessee in the Citrus Bowl on Dec. 31 in Orlando. Michigan’s last Citrus Bowl trip was six years ago against Alabama, so the Wolverines are due. Like last year’s ReliaQuest Bowl matchup against the Crimson Tide, this could end up being one of the best non-CFP games of the postseason. I’m sure bowl organizers would love a Michigan-Texas matchup and the Bryce Underwood vs. Arch Manning angle.

As long as the CFP is still in play, Michigan is going to keep the bowl talk to a minimum. The Wolverines didn’t need the carrot of a potential CFP bid to knock off Ohio State last season, but a win Saturday against Maryland will keep this year’s team in Playoff mode for another week.

“There’s an energy and a focus that you have this time of year,” defensive coordinator Wink Martindale said. “We had it last year, too. They know that everything they’ve worked for is still all out in front of them, so we’ll see what happens.”