Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 12’s game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the New England Patriots.

Cincinnati in late November feels like a crossroads for both franchises. New England arrives 9–2 with a rookie quarterback already commanding the room and the huddle. The Patriots see this as a chance to stack seeding while the Bills and Ravens chase. Cincinnati instead is trying to keep a bad season from becoming a punchline, especially on defense. Joe Flacco gives them professionalism, but the building crackles with frustration and urgency, not calm. Below is my prediction for NFL Week 12’s game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the New England Patriots.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

New England brings an offense that punishes bad structure and bad tackling, and Cincinnati checks both boxes. The Patriots complete 71.9% of passes for 2,836 yards, 20 touchdowns, five interceptions, and 8.9 yards per attempt through 11 weeks. Drake Maye adds about 285 rushing yards and 2 scores, turning broken pockets into explosives instead of sacks. Stefon Diggs, Kayshon Boutte, Mack Hollins, Hunter Henry, and Austin Hooper have combined for well over 2,000 yards and 18 touchdowns on strong efficiency. Behind them, TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson headline 316 rush attempts for 1,242 yards and 12 rushing touchdowns. Now drop that profile on a Bengals defense allowing 33.4 points and 418.2 yards per game, including 160.9 rushing yards on 5.2 per carry with 12 rushing scores. That is not just bad; that is the exact type of unit a top-10 explosive offense can light up for 30-plus.

The Bengals still bring enough scoring juice to help the total, even without Ja’Marr Chase. Flacco has 1,453 passing yards, 12 touchdowns, three interceptions, and 6.8 yards per attempt, with veteran rhythm and decent ball security. Chase, Tee Higgins, and Andrei Iosivas have already stacked 1,661 yards and 13 touchdowns on 216 combined targets; Higgins and Andrei still run real routes even with Chase sidelined. Chase Brown brings 519 rushing yards and 229 receiving yards on 39 catches, with usage that naturally grows whenever Cincinnati trails. New England’s defense is good, not suffocating, allowing 18.1 points and 300.6 yards per game while ranking near the top in run defense. That still leaves room for a functional passing game, a receiving back, and a few short fields to land this offense in the low-20s.

Patriots vs. Bengals pick, best bet

Market-wise, we are staring at Patriots -7.5 and a total sitting around 49.5. New England scores 26–27 points per game and allows about 18–19; Cincinnati scores roughly 23 and allows 33.4. If you just average offense versus defense on each side, you land in the low-30s for the Patriots and low-20s for the Bengals, already nudging past 50. Both teams are tilted to the over on the season, with 13 overs in 21 combined games. The clearest counterargument is a Patriots defensive strangling that drags the game toward 31–13 and a quiet fourth quarter. I don’t buy that with this Bengals defense on the field for 60 snaps against Maye, Diggs, and Henderson, and with Brown’s receiving and Flacco’s volume chasing from behind. The softer angle I’d rather fade is the Bengals +7.5 side, which leans on “weirdness” rather than structural advantage, especially with their defense tracking toward record-setting futility.

I expect New England to lean into the attack, not sit on the ball. Early, Henderson and Stevenson should rip chunk runs against 5.2 yards per carry resistance and force Cincinnati to spin safeties down. That opens deep crossers and posts for Diggs and Boutte, with Henry chewing the seams on play-action. When the Patriots lead, Vrabel can still call shot plays because the Bengals defense struggles even when opponents stay balanced. On the other side, Brown’s screens and angle routes plus Higgins’ red-zone work give Flacco enough answers to keep drives alive. Garbage-time scoring becomes more a feature than a bug, because this Bengals team has already allowed 80-plus fourth-quarter points over their recent stretch.

My favorite angle here is over 49.5, with a lean to New England’s team total over as the clean derivative. On the main board, I’ll call it Patriots 34, Bengals 24 and let both offenses pull us across the number.

Best bet: Bengals vs. Patriots o49.5 total points (-120) [Lean: Patriots team total points o29.5 (-110)]

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For a prop lean, I want to build everything around Stefon Diggs 70+ receiving yards at +130 on DraftKings. He’s sitting at 659 yards on 59 catches (81.9% catch rate) with 11.2 yards per reception and remains Maye’s first read when the coverage picture gets muddy. Cincinnati is allowing 257.3 passing yards per game, 25 passing touchdowns, and a 67.2% completion rate, with the league’s worst defensive EPA profile and a pass rush that’s produced only 14 sacks. That’s exactly the environment where a WR1 with Diggs’ usage and route variety can crack 70 on efficiency or volume, especially with New England’s explosive rate sitting top-three and Maye near the top of the league in deep-ball EPA. I’d treat 70+ at +130 as the primary way to express that edge and would still be comfortable down to +115; if books hang a standard line in the high-60s at regular juice, that’s viable too, but I’d rather ride the plus-money alt, here.

Best prop lean: Stefon Diggs 70+ receiving yards (+130)

Tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!