The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Arizona Cardinals players heading into their matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars to help you craft a winning lineup.
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Jacoby Brissett, QB
We are looking at at least two more missed games for Kyler Murray (foot). GM Monti Ossenfort said shortly after he was placed on IR that he believed Murray would return this season. At the same time, Adam Schefter reported that the team and Murray will have “extensive discussions” about his future with the team.
Who knows?
What I do know is that Jacoby Brissett is cutting it loose right now (NFL record 47 completions last weekend) and is facing a defense that has allowed 20+ fantasy points to a QB in each of their past five games.
The QB production is one thing, but their two games coming out of the bye have been played against the Raiders and Texans.
Multiple touchdowns feel safe, something that Brissett has done in all five of his starts, and with 36+ pass attempts in four of those games, I’m expecting another top 10 performance.
Kyler Murray, QB
The fact that we needed reports three weeks ago to tell us that the Cardinals’ starting Brissett was “not some kind of benching” of Kyler Murray is a concern.
The foot injury is a worry for a player who, at the peak of his powers, threatens defenses in a multitude of ways. But even pre-injury, we are talking about a quarterback who has yet to post a top-12 finish at the position this season.
Murray is pacing for a career low in both fantasy points per pass and per rush, making him a tough sell until we have a clean bill of health, and even then, I think I’d need to see it on the field before trusting him in lineups.
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With the IR tag slapped on him last Wednesday, Murray will miss the remainder of the month, with a Week 14 return his next possible spot to impact our world.
The Cardinals play the Rams and Texans in Weeks 14-15, two matchups that I’d rather not touch, and that means, at best, a Week 16 home game against the Falcons is the next time you’d feel even remotely confident in considering Murray.
Trey Benson, RB
Trey Benson (arthroscopic surgery on his meniscus) was eligible to return from injured reserve two weeks ago and, should he trend in that direction (initial timetable: 4-6 weeks), he profiles as the leader of this backfield.
Benson last played in Weeks 3-4, and he was one of seven backs with at least four targets and 35 rushing yards in both of those weeks. The others:
Bam Knight is averaging 3.4 yards per carry this season, and Emari Demercado has a high ankle sprain. I’m confident that this is Benson’s gig when he returns, so stay on top of the news (day-to-day has been the sentiment all week): he’s a flexible player the moment he is ruled active.
Marvin Harrison Jr., WR
Marvin Harrison posted a target share north of 27% with a touchdown in Weeks 9 and 10, but he underwent surgery on his appendix in the middle of last week and thus was inactive over the weekend.
His status is up in the air for this week, but the trends we saw from him with Jacoby Brissett under center were strong enough to consider him a viable option (low-end WR2, high-end flex). Bona fide WR1s have torched the Jaguars, and I don’t think it’s crazy to think that Harrison benefits from that weakness.
Week 2: Ja’Marr Chase scores 36.5 PPR points
Week 3: Nico Collins scores 22.4 PPR points
Week 6: Jaxon Smith-Njigba scores 30.2 PPR points
Week 10: Nico Collins scores 22.6 PPR points
No, he’s not in the same zip code as those stars, but there is a sizable gap between him and Arizona’s WR2, so I think there is some value to extract from a trend like that.
Keep tabs on this situation. Ideally, we get him back sooner rather than later, but it is worth noting that his greatest impact could come when you need it most (Week 17 against the Bengals).
Michael Wilson, WR
We are 12 weeks into the season, and Michael Wilson has the single-highest receiving yardage game of the year.
Yep, certainly had that projected this preseason.
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He was the focal point from the jump with Marvin Harrison sidelined, and things really picked up in the third quarter when he had gains of 25 and 34 yards over a three-play stretch. I’m not sure that he’s a top 15 talent in the league or anything like that (in fact, I’m sure he’s not), but we have a decent sample size of Jacoby Brissett finding two targets he is comfortable with and taking the Joe Flacco approach in terms of volume.
Week 9, Marvin Harrison Jr. + Trey McBride: 65.5% of targets (19 targets)
Week 10, Harrison + McBride: 56.8% of targets (25 targets)
Week 11, Wilson + McBride: 51.7% of targets (29 targets)
McBride deserves to be labeled as the primary target, but this offense, as long as Brissett heads it, has made it clear that their WR1 is worthy of our trust in terms of opportunities.
You could dial back Wilson’s efficiency from last week (15 catches on 18 targets) and chop his volume in half and still have a pretty fine flex play. The Jags own the second-highest opponent aDOT this season, and that opens up the door for a few chunk plays that could land Wilson as a top 15 receiver this week.
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I’m a little more reserved than that (WR23), but I don’t think last week was a flash in the pan as long as he’s holding the WR1 role in this offense.
Trey McBride, TE
It isn’t easy to overstate how impressive what Trey McBride is doing right now. There was no Harrison on Sunday, and that made his path to 8+ catches for the fourth time in five games a bit clearer, but I’m not sure anything can slow him down at this point.
Reception Leaders Since 2024
Ja’Marr Chase: 206
McBride: 182
Amon-Ra St. Brown: 181
Jaxson Smith-Njigba: 172
Drake London: 160
Justin Jefferson: 159
Jacoby Brissett has unlocked the touchdown scoring that Kyler Murray could never get to (TD in five straight), and that’s just a bonus. McBride’s scoring equity OR his raw volume would be enough to land him as a Tier 1 player at the position: the fact that he’s juggling both makes him THE Tier 1, not just a part of it.