The Jacksonville Jaguars enter Week 12 at 6-4 after a dominant blowout victory over the Los Angeles Chargers, a win that finally showcased the physical identity this team has been searching for all season. With the AFC South race tightening and the Indianapolis Colts still holding a narrow lead, Jacksonville needs another strong performance to keep their playoff position secure and push toward claiming the division lead.

The Arizona Cardinals enter this matchup short-handed across the offense but remain competitive with a disciplined defense and a coaching staff capable of maximizing what is left of the roster.

Key Injuries

The Jaguars will once again be without wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr., marking his third consecutive missed game. In his absence, Jacksonville will lean heavily on Jakobi Meyers and Parker Washington as the primary receiving options. Brenton Strange returning as the lead tight end is an important development for an offense that has lacked consistency over the middle. On the offensive line, right tackle Anton Harrison remains sidelined, creating another week of protection adjustments for a unit already fighting inconsistency.

Defensively, losing Travon Walker is a setback for a pass rush that often needs blitzes to generate pressure. Expect Dennis Gardeck and undrafted rookies BJ Green and Danny Striggow to rotate opposite Josh Hines-Allen as Jacksonville searches for production on the edge.

Arizona enters this matchup with significant losses. Kyler Murray remains out, placing the offense in the hands of Jacoby Brissett. Lead running back Trey Benson and wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. are also unavailable, removing some of the Cardinals’ most dynamic playmakers. Without Murray, Benson, or Harrison, the offense loses explosive capability and reduces the margin for error.

Smashmouth Wins Games

For Jacksonville to win this game, the offensive plan needs to resemble last week’s. A steady commitment to the run, high-percentage throws, and simplified play calling should remain the priority.

The Jaguars don’t need to replicate the excessive run volume from the Chargers game, but abandoning the ground attack would undermine their identity. Ensuring Travis Etienne, Bhayshul Tuten, and LeQuint Allen all get the appropriate amount of touches is vital to this offense’s success.

Meyers, Washington, and Strange provide enough talent to keep the passing game stable, but this group is not built to consistently convert third-and-long situations without Thomas or Travis Hunter. Staying ahead of schedule, limiting drops, and giving Trevor Lawrence clean pockets will determine whether the offense sustains drives. The pathway forward requires high-probability execution rather than unnecessary creativity.

A Simple Defensive Strategy

The defensive approach for Jacksonville is straightforward. Pressure Brissett early and often. Arizona’s offensive line ranks eighth-worst in the league according to PFSN’s Team OL Impact Rankings, and Jacksonville should find success with varied blitz packages similar to those used against the Chargers. Without Murray’s mobility, Brissett is far more vulnerable to collapsing pockets.

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The primary challenge against Jacksonville is tight end Trey McBride. With key injuries removing most of Arizona’s offensive threats, McBride is a one-man show.

Jacksonville cannot afford a repeat of their Week 9 defensive performance against the Raiders, in which tight end Brock Bowers produced 13 touches, 133 total yards, and three touchdowns. The defense must do whatever it takes to limit 85 and force Arizona to rely on secondary options. If the Jaguars contain McBride and create pressure on Brissett, they will consistently provide their offense with favorable opportunities.

How Jacksonville Would Lose

Jacksonville will lose this game if the offense reverts to the undisciplined tendencies that defined earlier weeks of the season. Critical drops, drive-killing penalties, poor pass blocking, and stalled red zone trips have been regular setbacks.

Arizona will attempt to exploit Jacksonville’s weak points, particularly the offensive line, since Harrison is injured. The defense will be tasked with getting in the backfield. If Lawrence cannot progress through his reads, then the offense may become dysfunctional.

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Defensively, failing to control McBride or generate pressure would allow Arizona to find consistency to control the game. The Jaguars’ secondary is weak and struggling with injuries, so if Brissett has too much time or McBride exploits the coverage, the result will be dangerous for Jacksonville.

Prediction

Ultimately, Arizona lacks the offensive personnel to match Jacksonville across four quarters. The Jaguars hold advantages in nearly every area of this matchup. As long as they maintain offensive balance and avoid a collapse, they should be able to control the game from start to finish. Jacksonville is fighting for playoff positioning, and this is a matchup they cannot allow to slip.

Final Prediction: Jaguars win 34 to 17