The Miami Dolphins are on their bye week this Nov. 23, but they’ll return home with a critical matchup ahead. Next up on Nov. 30 at Hard Rock Stadium, they host the New Orleans Saints in Week 13. This game is massive for a Dolphins team desperate to spark a late-season playoff push. With 6 games left, Miami needs to win almost every remaining game to have any shot.
🔥 Quick Facts:
Dolphins enter with a 4-7 record after Nov. 16 overtime win vs. Commanders
Game scheduled for Sunday, Nov. 30 at 1:00 PM ET on FOX
Saints are struggling at 2-8, making this a winnable matchup
Miami holds a 7-6 all-time series edge against New Orleans
Playoff odds remain under 1%, but not impossible with strong finish
What Happened Before the Bye?
The Dolphins just gutted out a 16-13 overtime victory against the Washington Commanders on Nov. 16 in Madrid, Spain. That thrilling win showed resilience when the team desperately needed it. Tua Tagovailoa led the offense, and the defense made crucial stops to secure the extra period triumph.
Before that Madrid miracle, things looked grim. The offense struggled without Tyreek Hill, who suffered a season-ending injury earlier. The Dolphins defense ranks near the bottom of the league, allowing too many big plays. Yet the bye week gives Mike McDaniel time to regroup and prepare for the final stretch.
McDaniel’s team sits at 4-7 heading into the Saints game. They need to win almost all remaining contests. Some analysts suggest needing 5 wins in the final 6 games, though that still might not guarantee postseason play. The odds are bleak, but stranger things happen in football.
Why This Next Game Matters
The Saints game is perfect for Miami to build momentum. New Orleans is a 2-8 squad struggling across the board. This matchup gives the Dolphins a legitimate chance to pick up a crucial win at home.
Think about the timeline: if Miami wins against a weak Saints team, they’ll be 5-7 going into tougher matchups ahead. Every win now becomes exponentially more important. Losing to a bad team essentially ends their playoff hopes for good.
Playing at Hard Rock Stadium helps too. The home crowd should provide energy and support. Division games and tough opponents come later, but this is a chance to grab a win without traveling.
Head-to-Head Series History
Miami leads the all-time series against New Orleans with a 7-6 advantage. The Dolphins haven’t dominated recently, but they know how to beat the Saints. Last time these teams played, New Orleans captured the contest.
Statistic
Miami Dolphins
New Orleans Saints
All-Time Record
7 wins
6 wins
Last 5 Meetings
2 wins
3 wins
2025 Season Record
4-7
2-8
Points Per Game
20.5
Lower ranking
Win Probability*
71%
29%
The prediction models favor Miami heavily. Computer analysis gives the Dolphins roughly a 71% chance to win this matchup. That makes sense given New Orleans‘s struggles this season. However, NFL games aren’t played on paper.
What to Watch For at Hard Rock Stadium
Tua’s decision-making: He can’t turn the ball over. Turnovers killed Miami all season.
Saints’ pass rush: Can they pressure Tua? The Dolphins need quick passing offense.
Running game health: Miami needs a functioning running attack for balance.
Home field advantage: Will spectators help Miami’s communication and energy?
Defensive stops: The Dolphins must force turnovers or Miami’s defense will get exposed.
Can Miami Actually Make the Playoffs?
Honest answer: it’s a long shot, but not mathematically impossible. The Dolphins‘s path requires near-perfection down the stretch. Analysts give them less than 1% odds currently, though some suggest that estimate seems too harsh.
Here’s the reality: 10 teams have previously started 4-7 or worse and still made the postseason. It’s rare, but it happens. Miami needs to win 5 out of their final 6 games, which would give them a 9-8 record at worst. That could sneak into a wild card spot depending on other results.
The bye week comes at the right time because McDaniel and his staff can rest key players and install adjustments. Tyreek Hill‘s loss hurts immensely, but other offensive weapons remain available. It’s not optimal, but the Dolphins still have playmakers capable of winning games.
Michael Brown is a seasoned sports journalist bringing years of experience covering professional athletics and sporting culture. With a keen eye for breaking stories and player dynamics, this veteran journalist delivers in-depth analysis and exclusive insights from the world’s biggest sporting events. His passion for the game shines through in every story, keeping fans connected to the action both on and off the field.