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The Kansas City Chiefs entered their Week 12 game against the Indianapolis Colts with an 0-5 record in one-score games during the 2025 NFL season.
The Chiefs improved that mark to 1-5 with a crucial 23-20 overtime victory over the AFC South leaders.
Kansas City’s path to victory wasn’t easy. Indianapolis jumped out to an early lead and was able to keep the Chiefs at an arm’s length for much of the first three quarters of the game.
But Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs were able to overcome an 11-point fourth-quarter deficit and force overtime. And in the extra frame, Kansas City’s defense got a crucial stop before driving the length of the field to set up a walk-off Harrison Butker field goal.
The Chiefs are now 6-5 after their latest victory. Where does that put them in the AFC playoff picture? Here’s what to know about their odds to make the postseason after their latest win.
Chiefs playoff odds
The Chiefs have an estimated 58% chance to make the playoffs after their win over the Colts, according to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats.
Kansas City entered Week 12 projected by Next Gen Stats to have a 41% chance to make it into the postseason. Had the Chiefs lost to the Colts, their chances of making it into the postseason would have improved to an estimated 29%.
It isn’t clear whether the Chiefs’ chances to make the postseason will further change based on other results from Sunday’s slate.
What is clear is that the Chiefs earned a critical win. And while they remain on the outside looking in for the AFC playoff picture, they aren’t too far behind in the race for one of the three coveted wild-card spots.
Chiefs remaining schedule
The Chiefs entered Week 12 with the NFL’s 12th-hardest remaining strength of schedule for 2025, per Tankathon. The Colts were one of their toughest remaining opponents, however, so Kansas City may face an easier path forward regardless of how the rest of Week 12 unfolds.
Below is a look at the Chiefs’ remaining opponents:
AFC West standings
The Chiefs were guaranteed to remain third in the AFC West standings regardless of their result in Week 12. Below is a look at the pecking order within the division.
Denver Broncos (9-2)Los Angeles Chargers (7-4)Kansas City Chiefs (6-5)Las Vegas Raiders (2-7)
Both the Broncos and Chargers were on bye in Week 12, so the Chiefs’ win allowed them to gain ground on both of their divisional counterparts. Kansas City is now just a game back of Los Angeles in the standings while moving to three games back of Denver.
Of course, the Chiefs have lost head-to-head against both the Chargers and Broncos. As such, they still have a little ground to make up on both teams down the stretch of the season.
AFC playoff pictureNew England Patriots (10-2; AFC East leaders)Denver Broncos (9-2; AFC West leaders)Indianapolis Colts (8-3; AFC South leaders)Baltimore Ravens (6-5; AFC North leaders)Los Angeles Chargers (7-4; wild card No. 1)Buffalo Bills (7-4; wild card No. 2)Jacksonville Jaguars (6-4; wild card No. 3)
In the hunt: Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5), Houston Texans (6-5), Kansas City Chiefs (6-5), Miami Dolphins (4-7), Cincinnati Bengals (3-8), Las Vegas Raiders (2-8), New York Jets (2-9), Cleveland Browns (2-8), Tennessee Titans (1-10)