The playoff picture is really starting to take shape in the NFL as Week 12 is nearly behind us (the San Francisco 49ers still play the Carolina Panthers on Monday) and the focus turns to Thanksgiving in a loaded Week 13.
Every NFL team is in action in Week 13, which will likely end with a few more teams eliminated from playoff contention. The New York Giants became the first team eliminated on Sunday with their loss to the Detroit Lions.
However, a few fringe playoff teams made major moves in this week’s power rankings, as the Kansas City Chiefs took down the Indianapolis Colts, the Dallas Cowboys orchestrated a 21-point comeback against the Philadelphia Eagles and the Houston Texans upset the Buffalo Bills.
Houston, Dallas and Kansas City are all still on the outside of the playoff picture, but they have much better chances of getting in after wins in Week 12.
Plus, there has been a shake up in the top five of the odds with some of the top contenders losing. Do the Eagles drop off for their road loss? How far does Indy slide? Does Buffalo stay in the top 10?
Each week, I’ll be power ranking every NFL team based on the odds to win the Super Bowl in the 2025 season. Here’s a look at who is up and who is down after Sunday’s Week 12 action.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford. / Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images
The Rams are the No. 1 seed in the NFC and are rolling right now, blowing out the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday night. Matthew Stafford is the MVP favorite, and L.A. is up to +400 to win the Super Bowl — the best odds in the league.
Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts. / Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images
Jalen Hurts and the Eagles blew a 21-0 lead against Dallas in Week 12, but they still remain second in the odds to win the Super Bowl. I’m not going to hold a road division loss against the defending champs when they’re still 8-3.
New England Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel. / Jonathan Dyer-Imagn Images
The Patriots struggled a bit against the Bengals in Week 12, but they moved to 10-2 with a win to take sole possession of first in the AFC. The Patriots haven’t played a tough schedule, but they’ve won nine in a row and have the inside track to the No. 1 seed in the conference.
The Denver Broncos and quarterback Bo Nix. / Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images
The Denver Broncos and quarterback Bo Nix jump up a couple spots on their bye week with Buffalo and Indianapolis losing.
Green Bay Packers running back Emanuel Wilson. / Wm. Glasheen-USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images
The Packers dominated the Vikings in Week 12, and they’re now 7-3-1 this season heading into a Thanksgiving Day game against Detroit. The Packers are still chasing Chicago in the NFC North, though.
Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba. / Andrew Nelles / The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
The Seahawks bounced back from their Week 11 loss to the Rams with a win over Tennessee behind a huge game from Jaxon Smith-Njigba. They are one of four teams with 10/1 or shorter odds to win the Super Bowl.
Indianapolis Colts quarterback Daniel Jones. / Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images
The Colts fell to 8-3 with a loss to the Chiefs in Week 12, and they struggled on offense in the second half with multiple chances to ice the game. Could this be a sign of things to come for Daniel Jones and company down the stretch of the season?
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes. / Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs picked up a huge win in overtime against the Chiefs in Week 12, keeping their season alive at 6-5. KC is still on the outside looking in with the Texans, Steelers an Jaguars all still in the mix for that No. 7 seed.
Oddsmakers bumped the Chiefs up from +1000 to +950 to win the Super Bowl with the win.
Detroit Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs. / Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images
A three-touchdown game from Jahmyr Gibbs saved the Lions in an overtime win against the Giants. Detroit is in third in the NFC North, but it has a chance to make up some ground on Thanksgiving against the Packers.
Baltimore Ravens running back Derrick Henry. / Ken Blaze-Imagn Images
Just like that, the Ravens are back in first place in the AFC North. Baltimore won five games in a row, knocking off the Jets on Sunday to jump the Steelers in the division.
Now, they’re favored on Thanksgiving night against the Bengals in Week 13.
San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy. / Joe Rondone/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
The 49ers will look to build their playoff case in Week 12 on Monday night against the Panthers.
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen. / Troy Taormina-Imagn Images
The Bills are almost guaranteed to only end up in a wild card spot, as they lost again in Week 12 to the Texans. Buffalo is now just 7-4 and has some really rough losses in the 2025 season.
Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams. / Brad Rempel-Imagn Images
The Bears are now 8-3 after beating the Steelers in Week 12, and they hold the top spot in the NFC North. Chicago moved from +10000 to +7000 to win the Super Bowl after Week 12.
Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Liam Coen. / Morgan Tencza-Imagn Images
The Jaguars made things interesting in an overtime win against the Cardinals thanks to multiple Trevor Lawrence turnovers, but they moved from +5500 to +5000 to win the Super Bowl.
Jacksonville is 7-4 and firmly in a playoff spot in the AFC.
Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert. / Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
The Chargers were on the bye in Week 12.
Houston Texans quarterback Davis Mills. / Troy Taormina-Imagn Images
Houston has won three straight games with Davis Mills under center to get to 6-5, and it’s moved from +8000 to +5000 to win the Super Bowl in 2025.
C.J. Stroud appears to be on track to return in Week 13.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield. / Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images
Tampa Bay has now lost three games in a row to playoff contenders, and it’s now tied at 6-5 (before Monday night) with the Panthers in the NFC South.
To make matters worse, Baker Mayfield was injured on Sunday night and his status going forward could make or break Tampa Bay’s season.
Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott. / Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images
A massive comeback win over the Eagles has Dallas at 5-5-1 and firmly in the mix for a wild card spot in the NFC down the stretch of the regular season.
It won’t be easy, but Dallas could pick up another statement win at home on Thanksgiving against the Chiefs.
Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young. / Brett Davis-Imagn Images
The Panthers take on the 49ers on Monday night in Week 12.
Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin. / Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
Pittsburgh has lost the lead in the AFC North to the Ravens, and it’s facing an uphill battle to get back in the playoff race with Aaron Rodgers (wrist) banged up.
The Steelers are favored to miss the playoffs this season and dropped to +15000 to win the Super Bowl.
Miami Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel. / Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
The Dolphins were on the bye in Week 12, but they’ve won three of their last four games heading into a matchup with the Saints on Sunday.
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins. / Matthew Hinton-Imagn Images
The Falcons picked up a win in Week 12 against the Saints, but they are +100000 to win the Super Bowl with Michael Penix Jr. done for the season.
Kirk Cousins has a chance to prove he can still play over the final weeks of the season, and Atlanta is just a couple games out of first place in the NFC South… it’s not impossible for this team to reach the playoffs.
Minnesota Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy. / Kayla Wolf-Imagn Images
The J.J. McCarthy experiment continues to look worse and worse, and the Vikings are now tied for dead last in the odds to win the Super Bowl. Minnesota’s offense scored just six points in a blowout loss to Green Bay in Week 12.
Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels. / Amber Searls-Imagn Images
The Commanders were on the bye in Week 12.
Arizona Cardinals quarterback Jacoby Brissett. / Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images
Arizona dropped an overtime game with the Jaguars in Week 12, and it’s just 3-8 this season. Jacoby Brissett has led some fun offensive games, but Arizona is tied for the worst odds to win the Super Bowl through 12 weeks.
Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Flacco. / Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
Cincinnati dropped a fourth game in a row on Sunday, and it remains three games out of first place in the AFC North ahead of a Thanksgiving matchup with the Ravens.
The Bengals hung tough with the Patriots in Week 12, and they’ll hope to get Joe Burrow (toe) back in Week 13 to keep their slim playoff hopes alive.
Cleveland Browns running back Quinshon Judkins. / Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images
A pair of rushing scores from Quinshon Judkins and an elite defensive showing led the Browns to a win in Shedeur Sanders’ first start. Cleveland now has three wins in 2025, but it is still well out of the playoff picture in a tough AFC.
New Orleans Saints quarterback Tyler Shough. / Matthew Hinton-Imagn Images
New Orleans came out of the bye and lost to Kirk Cousins and the Falcons while losing Alvin Kamara to a knee injury in the process. Tyler Shough will have a lot of meaningless games to develop the rest of the season, as New Orleans is +100000 to win the Super Bowl.
New York Giants quarterback Jameis Winston. / Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images
The Giants are officially eliminated from playoff contention, as they blew their fifth double-digit lead in the 2025 season to lose to the Lions in overtime.
Hopefully, Jaxson Dart will be able to return soon to help New York develop for next season.
New York Jets quarterback Tyrod Taylor. / Peter Casey-Imagn Images
Tyrod Taylor played decently in Week 12, moving the New York offense better than Justin Fields has this season. Still, it wasn’t enough to beat the Baltimore Ravens, and New York seems destined for a top-five pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.
Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Geno Smith. / Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
Geno Smith and the Raiders remained inept on offense in Week 12 in a loss to the Cleveland Browns and Shedeur Sanders. This is a lost season for a Raiders team that made a poor investment in Smith in the offseason.
Tennessee Titans quarterback Cam Ward. / Andrew Nelles-USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images
Cam Ward played arguably the best game of his career in Week 12, but it still wasn’t enough for Tennessee to beat the Seahawks. The Titans are just 1-10 and are out of the playoff race ahead of Thanksgiving.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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