Jahmyr Gibbs 55.4 PPR points. Jaxon Smith-Njigba 37.1 points. Hunter Henry 24.5 points. What do these Week 12 scores have in common besides being extraordinarily good point totals? They all occurred against favorable mismatches for those players.
Favorable mismatches allow an outlier scoring pace. For example, Cincinnati’s defense allowed 21.1 PPR PPG to opponents’ tight ends in Weeks 8-11. That made the Bengals one of only four defenses in the 20+ PPG allowed range — which translates to a very favorable mismatch and illustrates why Henry was at the top of the favorable list in my Week 12 matchups review.
With the fantasy playoffs right around the corner, and as we head into Thanksgiving week, here are some other players sent to feast for the remainder of the season.
Unless otherwise mentioned, the statistics below are from TruMedia/PFF, NFL Next Gen Stats or Stathead; PPR scoring is used for point totals. Roster rates are in Yahoo leagues.
Running back mismatches
Opposing defenses to target: Buffalo, New York Giants and Washington
TeamWeekH/AOpp.
14
Away
Buffalo Bills
16
Home
Buffalo Bills
17
Away
Washington Commanders
13
Away
Washington Commanders
17
Home
New York Giants
14
Home
Washington Commanders
16
Away
New York Giants
13
Home
New York Giants
15
Home
Buffalo Bills
15
Home
Washington Commanders
16
Away
Washington Commanders
17
Away
Buffalo Bills
13
Home
Buffalo Bills
15
Away
New York Giants
The teams above have all allowed 22+ PPG on planned rush plays since Week 9. And conveniently, there are several RBs who will get to face more than one of those defenses before the end of the season.
Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason, MIN (vs. WSH in Week 14, at NYG in Week 16)
Jones and Mason combined to score only 12.9 points in Week 12. Don’t give up on them. The Vikings face Washington in Week 14 and the Giants in Week 16. This may actually be a great week to pick up Mason. His 73 percent roster rate in Yahoo may drop after his 4.2-point dud in Week 12. Mason also has a 56 percent roster rate in ESPN leagues and thus will be available as an upgrade in even more leagues there.
Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson, NE (vs. NYG in Week 13, vs. BUF in Week 15)
Henderson’s 11.1 points against Cincinnati was a huge disappointment given that the Bengals were considered a favorable mismatch headed into Week 12. But similar to Jones and Mason, stay the course with Henderson. You’ll want the upside that comes with facing an awful Giants rush defense in Week 13.
Stevenson is a tougher sell after he scored only two points in Week 12 (with six carries for five yards). But remember, this was Stevenson’s first game back from a toe injury. He’s likely to be reincorporated into the Patriots offense more next week. Don’t drop him just as the mismatches are starting to kick in.
Saquon Barkley, PHI (at WSH in Week 16, at BUF in Week 17)
As a consensus first-rounder, Barkley may be the most disappointing fantasy draft pick in the 2025 season. However, mismatches in the semifinal and championship week can allow him to redeem his earlier subpar performances. Assuming, of course those earlier duds didn’t already knock your team out of playoff contention.
Tight end mismatches
Mismatch defenses: Cincinnati, Jacksonville, Miami and San Francisco
TeamWeekH/AOpp.
17
Away
Cincinnati Bengals
13
Home
Cincinnati Bengals
15
Away
Cincinnati Bengals
14
Home
Cincinnati Bengals
17
Away
San Francisco 49ers
16
Away
Miami Dolphins
13
Home
San Francisco 49ers
16
Home
Jacksonville Jaguars
14
Away
Jacksonville Jaguars
16
Home
San Francisco 49ers
17
Home
Jacksonville Jaguars
16
Home
Cincinnati Bengals
13
Away
Miami Dolphins
14
Home
Miami Dolphins
15
Away
Jacksonville Jaguars
15
Home
Miami Dolphins
17
Away
Miami Dolphins
13
Home
Jacksonville Jaguars
15
Away
San Francisco 49ers
Every team in this quartet of mismatches has allowed 22.4 or more PPG to tight ends since Week 9. So, take aim at these TEs accordingly.
Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely, BAL (vs. CIN in Week 13, at CIN in Week 15)
Why in the world would anyone want stock in Andrews and Likely after they combined to score only 4.1 points against the Jets in Week 12? Because they have two matchups against the Cincinnati defense that made Henry look like an All-Pro in Week 12 Andrews is the go-to here, but don’t forget to add Likely in deeper leagues.
Tyler Warren, IND (at JAX in Week 14, vs. SF in Week 16, vs. JAX in Week 17)
Warren has scored fewer than 10 points in three of his past four games after reaching that mark in six of the first seven games. However, Warren’s scoring pace should return to double-digit consistency with three favorable mismatches down the stretch.
Mason Taylor, NYJ (vs. MIA in Week 14, at JAX in Week 15)
The Jets have one of the most pedestrian passing offenses in the NFL, which may limit Taylor’s mismatch upside, but for those in deeper leagues he’s someone worth start consideration in Weeks 14 and 15.
Chig Okonkwo, TEN (vs. JAX in Week 13, at SF in Week 15)
The dismal state of the Titans offense has held the talented Okonkwo below the 10-point mark in all but two games. These mismatches should allow Okonkwo two trips into double-digit scoring territory.
Wide receiver/quarterback mismatches
Mismatch defenses: Miami, Tampa Bay and Tennessee
TeamWeekH/AOpp.
13
Away
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
15
Away
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
16
Home
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
16
Away
Miami Dolphins
14
Home
Tennessee Titans
13
Away
Tennessee Titans
16
Away
Tennessee Titans
17
Home
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
13
Away
Miami Dolphins
14
Away
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
17
Away
Tennessee Titans
14
Home
Miami Dolphins
15
Home
Miami Dolphins
15
Home
Tennessee Titans
17
Away
Miami Dolphins
This is where things get a lot thinner. The defenses listed in this mismatch table have each allowed nine or more PPG on vertical passes (aerials with 11+ air yards) since Week 9 — but there is one vertical mismatch stacking opportunity. But you’re going to have to display some fortitude to believe in the Saints’ starting QB.
Chris Olave and Tyler Shough, NO (at MIA in Week 13, at TB in Week 14, at TEN in Week 17)
The Saints face these defenses in Weeks 13, 14 and 17, respectively. This provides a powerful reason to get Olave into lineups (or trade for him if your league’s trade window remains open).
There is also longshot upside potential with (gulp) Shough, who has finished with more than 15 fantasy points exactly once. The blueprint here is that Shough racked up 18.98 points against Carolina in Week 10. The mismatch upside in these three games could provide him with the potential to get close to that mark again. It makes Shough a viable longshot option, but really only in 2QB or superflex leagues.