J.J. McCarthy has taught Justin Jefferson managers one of the most important lessons in fantasy football: Quarterback performance is a key component in wide receiver rankings. We had no idea how McCarthy was going to fare in his first NFL starting opportunity.

No one could have reasonably expected it would be this bad, but there was a decidedly non-zero chance it could be this bad. The only receiver in modern fantasy history who was able to operate consistently independent of the quality of his QB is Terrell Owens. Maybe you can come up with a few more. But I’d say at least 99% of WRs are QB dependent.

The Vikings threw for 87 yards, not even including the five sacks (dropping the team total to 52 yards, but that’s not relevant to us). Jefferson had 48 yards. That’s a 55% market share. Unreal. But this is not just a small pie, it’s one of those dehydrated pizzas the astronauts bring into space.

McCarthy’s passer rating is now 57.9 through his first six starts (he’s not even a rookie). That’s tied with Andrew Walter for 197th this century in a QB’s first six career starts. Matthew Stafford, Eli Manning and Alex Smith were worse and they ended up making it. It’s possible McCarthy also will. That’s out of… let’s call it 24 (there were 221 qualifiers).

So, back of the napkin, McCarthy has about a 12.5% chance to overcome this horrid start. That feels like the right number. Of course, McCarthy joined an elite offense on a team that won 14 games last season, so if anything, that number is wildly overstated. Jefferson has no chance in 2025 to rebound and be anything remotely close to what we paid.

Bottom line, the Vikings would be the Seahawks right now if they kept Sam Darnold. The rest of the Vikings are at least as good as the rest of the Seahawks.

Darnold had a 9.4 YPA on Sunday. It’s 9.3 for the year. That’s top 15 all-time  — Sid Luckman (10.9, 1943) tops the list.

Early Games: Two Chiefs finally hit the century mark; Monty takes back seat to Gibbs

Indianapolis at Kansas City: The Chiefs entered Week 12 without a player with 100 yards from scrimmage in a game all year, but had two players — Kareem Hunt and Rashee Rice — do it Sunday. Rice injured his hamstring but returned. That is going to have to be monitored. Near the end of overtime, the Chiefs had amassed 287 yards after the third quarter to 18 for the Colts. (UPDATE: This was a mistake on the broadcast — in the fourth quarter and overtime it was 236-18 Chiefs in yardage.) They had 41 more plays from scrimmage than Indy, just an insane differential. I’m worried about the Colts.

Pittsburgh at Chicago: I think Aaron Rodgers would have won this game. Mason Rudolph could not generate any real passing despite an outstanding day by the Steelers’ rushing game. Caleb Williams was good. His one sack was a disaster — end-zone fumble/TD. But it was only one sack. His sack avoidance this year is just stunning, beyond the realm of projectability. D’Andre Swift had his worst game of the year but that happens to them all. I can’t see Kyle Monangai seizing the bell-cow role, but it is possible.

New England at Cincinnati: Drake Maye started out very poorly but rebounded. We got what we wanted in RB touches from TreVeyon Henderson (21, compared to six for Rhamondre Stevenson). The passing game was all Hunter Henry — probably a matchup thing. The Patriots’ defense is good, but get out of here with Joe Flacco. I know you can say, “Why should the Bengals even play Joe Burrow given their record.” But you are paid to play the game. I’m sure Burrow wants to play. He wants to go into 2026 with some momentum. Chase Brown’s 100-yard rushing day was shocking if you believe in run defense, but I do not. Tee Higgins exited the game with a concussion, so I would not expect him back in Week 13. He was motionless on the field for several minutes, so this could be a multi-week deal.

NY Giants at Detroit: The Giants have given away at least four games now. In a way, this is the perfect tank. They keep the job/team attractive. They have their QB, it seems. They got the coach fired so they could get an upgrade there. Jameis Winston has a great arm and is talented, but he doesn’t seem to have the personality to lead a huddle. He’s more like the class clown. Some say the QB has to be feared. Some say loved. I say feared and loved, depending on what’s needed.

The Giants just fell apart on defense. The Lions realized they couldn’t play around with David Montgomery, who had just eight touches compared to Jahmyr Gibbs’ 26. Gibbs won the game for the Lions (264 yards from scrimmage, three touchdowns). The “Dan Campbell knows he has to get the ball to Jameson Williams” play-calling theory was debunked (zero catches, three targets). I would still play Williams next week because there is no momentum, or lack thereof, ever with Williams.

NY Jets at Ravens: New York held the Ravens to a shockingly-low 244 yards. The Ravens were 2-for-11 on third down. It certainly didn’t seem like the Jets traded away their defense. Tyrod Taylor was okay, but he’s strictly a backup. Getting John Metchie and Adonai Mitchell, a pair of recent second-round picks, to team with a healthy Garrett Wilson could make the receiving group decent for a rookie/new QB next year. I’m not saying WR is not a need for the Jets, but it’s not a glaring need. I guess Metchie is the guy to roster, but Mitchell had a long would-be TD opportunity (Taylor missed him, was hurried).

Late Games: Barkley struggles again; Michael Wilson now a WR1

Philadelphia at Dallas: The Cowboys have a good run defense now. Saquon Barkley had a bad game, including a big fumble. Jalen Hurts did little in the second half. The only real scoring opportunity for the Eagles in the fourth quarter was a 56-yard FG attempt that was missed. They probably should have gone for it on 4th-and-5, but maybe 56-yard FGs are layups now. A big problem for the Philly offense is that they run the play clock to about zero on just about every snap. This allows the defense to get a jump. I don’t know what takes so long. Can you remember the Eagles dialing up great plays? The Cowboys are explosive on offense — they had three passing plays over 40 yards. CeeDee Lamb dropped what would have been a TD, leading to a turnover on downs in the fourth quarter (he does stuff like this a lot and is overrated).

Cleveland at Las Vegas: Shedeur Sanders was pretty good and I was happy to see it. I understand his yards were inflated by the 66-yard screen pass touchdown to Dylan Sampson, who really looked like a former track star on the long scoring jaunt. At least Sanders wasn’t sacked 10 times like Geno Smith (three more for Myles Garrett). The only offense for the Raiders of fantasy relevance was provided by Ashton Jeanty. But this team really blew it by taking a running back in the draft — the position should be considered more of a final piece than a building block. You have to self scout.

Jacksonville at Arizona: We have to give Trevor Lawrence credit for pulling this game out with his receiving corps so banged up. Travis Etienne retained a firm grip on the starting RB job with a very efficient day. Jacoby Brissett is our volume king and Michael Wilson, of all people, is feasting. He has 25 catches the past two games — yes, that’s catches, not targets. Those receptions have been good for a toal of 303 receiving yards. Brissett is like the shooter who is getting his 25 shots. It’s going to add up to points for everyone no matter how efficient he happens to be that day.

Atlanta at New Orleans: There’s nothing of note to take out of this game. If Alvin Kamara (knee) is out for an extended period, we have no idea who the backup even is. I’ll follow up with this on Tuesday in my “Market Share Report.”