The Colts remained the third seed in the AFC with Sunday’s 23-20 overtime loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, falling a game behind Denver and two behind New England.

The New York Times playoff simulator gives the Colts a 90% chance to make the playoffs after the 1 p.m. results with a 11% chance at the No. 1 seed and a 61% chance to host playoff game.

A win would have given the Colts a 32% chance at the No. 1 seed so the loss is a significant blow to the bye but they still have a 72% chance for a bye or home game in the postseason.

TeamRecordWhat to know1.New England10-22.Denver9-2Bye3.Indianapolis8-34.Baltimore6-55.L.A. Chargers7-4Bye6.Buffalo7-47.Jacksonville6-4Playing Arizona at 4 p.m.8.Pittburgh6-59.Houston6-510.Kansas City6-5