Week 13 was a little boring for projecting the CFP Bracket. We had no major upsets, and not really a whole lot of teams played their way out of (or into) CFP consideration. But Rivalry weekend is coming up, and anything can happen.
1. Ohio State
The Ohio State Buckeyes are officially a CFP lock. Ohio State had a very ho-hum win against Rutgers in which Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate did not play. The Michigan game has very few implications, but don’t tell any Ohio State fan that.
2. Indiana
Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza (15) throws a pass during the first quarter against the Penn State Nittany Lions at Beaver Stadium. Credit: Matthew O’Haren-Imagn Images
The Indiana Hoosiers are officially a CFP lock. They were off in Week 13, and not even a loss to lowly Purdue in Week 14 would knock them out of the bracket. The only question is now where they would be seeded if they lose to Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship.
3. Texas A&M
The Texas A&M Aggies are officially a CFP lock. Barely. Oddly enough, they find themselves in similar territory to Ohio State. The game against Texas means very little for their CFP projection, but it would carry a lot of favor for Mike Elko if they could beat their rivals to the north.
4. Georgia
The Georgia Bulldogs are officially a CFP lock. We got typical “Cupcake Saturday” Georgia in Week 13, as the Bulldogs “only” beat Charlotte by 32. They now take on their in-state rivals, Georgia Tech, in Week 14.
5. Ole Miss
Nov 15, 2025; Oxford, Mississippi, USA; Mississippi Rebels head coach Lane Kiffin stands on the sideline during the second half against the Florida Gators at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-Imagn Images
The Ole Miss Rebels are officially a CFP lock. You have to wonder, though, how all of the drama and coverage of the pursuit of Lane Kiffin by other schools affects this team’s mentality? Regardless of what happens with Lane, this team is headed to the CFP.
6. Texas Tech
The Texas Tech Raiders are not quite a CFP lock. They sit at 10-1, and have a Big 12 Championship game looming. They need to get to 11-1 prior to that game to be considered a lock, and all they need to do to achieve that is beat West Virginia. This is a game they are favored by more than 20 points. So the Red Raiders are really a virtual lock.
7. Oregon
The Oregon Ducks are officially a CFP lock. The win over USC now gives the Ducks enough cache with their wins that even a loss to former Pac-12 rival Washington in Week 14 would not knock them out.
8. Notre Dame
As much as I would love to declare Notre Dame a CFP lock, I just can’t. When I watch them play, my eyes tell me that this is one of the 5 best teams in the country, and they are a legitimate National Championship Contender, and Jeremiyah Love should be the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy. But the head-to-head loss to Miami is certainly going to be a talking point in the next two weeks.
9. Oklahoma
Sep 20, 2025; Norman, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma Sooners quarterback John Mateer (10) celebrates with teammates after the game against the Auburn Tigers at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images
I have Oklahoma in the bracket for now, but I don’t feel great about it. Their offense is a legitimate concern. John Mateer hasn’t been the same ever since his injury. And it would not shock me to see LSU knock off the Sooners in Week 14 and end their CFP chances.
10. Alabama
The Crimson Tide are not yet a CFP lock. A loss in the Iron Bowl to Auburn would all but eliminate the Tide from the CFP. Auburn turned to freshman Deuce Knight at QB last week and has been playing better since the firing of Hugh Freeze. I wouldn’t put it past Alabama to lose this game, which would make Kalen DeBoer’s seat awfully hot.
11. SMU
Last week, I had Georgia Tech in this spot. But the Yellow Jackets lost to Pitt, and it now appears as if the ACC Championship game will be between Virginia and SMU (unless chaos happens). And given that SMU has Kevin Jennings and Jordan Hudson playing their best ball right now, I like their chances in that matchup.
12. North Texas
Like the ACC, the American is also a conference that needs weekly attention. I’m fully confident that the American winner will earn the G5 Auto-bid, simply because winning the American Championship game will add another quality win. I have the most faith in North Texas to win that game. Caleb Hawkins is a bona fide stud, and I am greatly concerned about Tulane’s ability to finish drives in the end zone.
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