Favorites struggled to cover the spread in Week 12 of the NFL season, but they managed to win the majority of games, making it a tough week for betting on underdogs to win outright. Even with that being the case, the SI Panel cashed in on two upsets last week. Matt Verderame correctly predicted the Falcons to beat their rivals, the Saints, and Peter Dewey cashed in on the Browns to take down the Raiders in Shedeur Sanders’ first start.

It’s time to move on to everyone’s favorite upset pick for the loaded Week 13 slate.

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Green Bay Packers (+130) vs. Detroit Lions

I’m confident that the four favorites from the Thanksgiving matchups and the one Black Friday game won’t all win straight up. I can’t get behind the Bears, Bengals, and Cowboys for several reasons, but I can make a compelling case for the Packers to upset the Lions. 

For starters, it’s a divisional matchup, and usually those games tend to be close. And, yes, Green Bay already won the first matchup, and it’s going to be difficult to go into Detroit and sweep the season series. But the Lions just went into overtime against the two-win Giants, and Jared Goff has struggled at times this season. Micah Parsons & Co. could again make life miserable for Goff.

Houston Texans (+180) vs. Indianapolis Colts

The Texans are going to do something Indianapolis hasn’t dealt well with over the past three weeks: pressure Daniel Jones. 

After starting 7–1, the Colts have lost two of their past three games, largely because Jones has committed seven turnovers while being sacked 12 times. He didn’t have a turnover or sack taken against the Chiefs in Week 12, but wilted against consistent pressure in the fourth quarter and overtime, going 3-of-9 for 17 yards in a 23–20 loss. 

If the Texans can get the pressure they normally do with Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter screaming off the edges, it could be a long day for Indianapolis and some short fields for Houston.

Tennessee Titans (+265) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

The Titans showed something last week against the Seahawks. They showed fight late in the game, crawling their way to a backdoor cover. Now, they get to host a divisional opponent in the Jacksonville Jaguars, who some would argue are lucky to be 7-4 at this point in the season. The Jags are 15th in offensive DVOA, 20th in defensive DVOA, and 16th in net yards per play. Their secondary is also 25th in opponent dropback success rate, which could open things up for Cam Ward.

Trevor Lawrence’s poor play is eventually going to lead the Jaguars to lose a game against an inferior opponent. He’s 32nd in the NFL in EPA+CPOE, which is one spot below Joe Flacco and one spot above Justin Fields. On the road against a divisional opponent could end up being the one he loses.

Houston Texans (+180) vs. Indianapolis Colts

The Houston defense is No. 1 in the NFL in EPA/Play and EPA/Pass heading into Week 13, and it could control the game against a Colts team that has looked vulnerable in recent weeks. Indy’s offense struggled in the second half against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 12, and it has a loss to Pittsburgh and a one-possession win over Atlanta in its last three games.

CJ Stroud is expected to return for Houston, which just won three games in a row with backup Davis Mills under center. The Texans are still alive in the AFC South, and I don’t trust Daniel Jones against an elite pass defense. This is a pretty solid price for a Houston team that appears to be peaking at the right time in 2025.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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