Austin Mock’s model says Arch Manning’s Texas is only a half-point underdog against rival Texas A&M. Alex Slitz / Getty Images
Rivalry week is arguably the best week of the college football season. Let’s see what my College Football Projection Model sees among the matchups.
The model takes into account past performance, returning talent and recruiting rankings. We then compare the model’s projections to the BetMGM lines for extra context. There is considerable uncertainty in these games, given the new coaches and rosters assembled through the transfer portal, but the model attempts to account for this.
In the biggest games of the week, Ohio State is projected to beat Michigan by 11.5, Alabama is picked to beat Auburn by 4 and Texas A&M is a half-point favorite at Texas.
Below are the projected margins of victory and totals for every FBS game this week.
Nov 26, 2025
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