No team in the NFL has a better record than the 10-2 Patriots. But while there’s plenty to be thankful for in New England, there are also areas of concern.
The Patriots lost the left side of their offensive line during Sunday’s win over the Bengals in Cincinnati, as left tackle Will Campbell and left guard Jared Wilson both went down with injuries that will keep them out the next few weeks.
How will the offense adapt without Campbell and Wilson? That’s one of many questions on our plate in this pre-Thanksgiving Mailbag. Let’s dive in.
Editor’s Note: Some questions have been lightly edited for clarity.
With the depleted offensive line, do you think the Patriots may throw fewer deep passes and focus on more short passes plus catch-and-run scenarios with the tight ends, DeMario Douglas and Stefon Diggs? – @JimGilhooly1957
There are a few things the Patriots could try, Jim.
It’s a numbers game in protection, so if you opt to keep extra bodies in to block — tight ends, running backs — then you’re limiting your available options to get out into routes. Keeping those extra bodies in could mean the quarterback needs to take more time in the pocket to find a smaller number of eligible pass-catchers.
If the Patriots opt for more route-runners in the hopes of getting the football out of Drake Maye’s hands quickly, those eligible receivers had better get open in a timely manner, because otherwise you could be asking a backup lineman or two to hold up on an island.
Additionally, the Patriots could dial up more quick-game passes in order to keep Maye upright. He ranks 36th out of 41 qualifying quarterbacks in quick-game rate (2.5 seconds to throw or less) this season. He’s also in the bottom 10 in terms of average time to throw at 2.72 seconds, when the league average is a shade over 2.6 seconds.
Maye is wired to be a big-game hunter. Can he adjust his play style on the fly — and can Josh McDaniels help him get there — with injuries piling up on the line?
Furthermore, the Patriots could try to make their run game more efficient in the name of keeping Maye upright. No better way to protect a quarterback than by having a competent rushing attack. Perhaps this becomes less of an option with Will Campbell out, but Josh McDaniels could opt for more outside runs in particular.
The Patriots rank 10th in success rate when running outside the tackles, and they rank 31st in success rate when they go inside. An effective run game that keeps Maye out of obvious third-and-long passing situations might be the best way to protect Vederian Lowe (who is expected to start at left tackle), but the Patriots have struggled all season to run the ball consistently, ranking 27th in yards per rush (3.9).
Rank the three AFC Wild Card teams along with the Chiefs and Texans in order of how dangerous they are to the Patriots in a potential playoff matchup. I understand this is not a question and more of a demand, but do what I say anyway, Phil! – @RobbieBuckets
Funny enough, Buckets, I think I’d put the two teams currently out of the playoff picture at the top of the list.
Among the five teams you list, the Chiefs would be No. 1 for obvious reasons. Even though I don’t think they have a championship-caliber roster offensively, they have one of the greatest coach-quarterback combinations ever and a good enough defense led by one of the top coordinators in the NFL.
The Texans would be No. 2 sheerly based on what they can do defensively. There’s a chance, when CJ Stroud comes back, that Houston reaches another level offensively. But even if they don’t, the Texans defense might be the scariest unit in the AFC.
Yes, that means the Texans — because of their defense, and specifically their pass-rush — rank ahead of the Bills for this exercise.
I think there are real issues in Buffalo. Their offense is very hit or miss, and if you look at the games they’ve lost, it’s been because of their offense. Lack of attention to detail, untimely turnovers, poor communication … they were all on display on Thursday Night Football last week in their loss to Houston.
But, because I believe Josh Allen is the best quarterback in football, the Bills rank ahead of the Chargers and Jaguars — in that order — in terms of projected difficulty for the Patriots in a potential playoff matchup.
Shane Bowen is a Vrabel guy and now he’s a scapegoat in New York. Chances he comes in as an Assistant Head Coach/Defensive Advisor to help interim defensive coordinator Zak Kuhr this season and beyond? – @GarthCorriveau
Good question, Garth. Not sure Bowen would show up in that kind of capacity. But would his good friend Mike Vrabel give him a call ahead of Monday night’s matchup for a thought or two from the guy who was, until recently, running the Giants defense Vrabel is about to face? It would be weird if he didn’t, wouldn’t it?
Did you like Kyle Williams as a returner, or did you feel like I do that he’s headed for a car crash pile up, with body parts and the football flying all over the place? – @JohnK02733480
I think getting Kyle Williams’ speed on the field in some capacity is a good thing for the Patriots. He had a nice catch-and-run 17-yard gain last week in Cincinnati, and his 36-yard return in the fourth quarter helped spark a field-goal drive.
Williams’ reps at wideout might be limited now with Kayshon Boutte back, so using the rookie third-rounder in the kicking game makes sense.
Given that he played left tackle over first-round pick Armand Membou at Mizzou, could Marcus Bryant get a look back at left tackle with Will Campbell going down? – @TheRealZaccone
He could, Stephen, but it sounds like Vederian Lowe will be the choice. Bryant is an interesting prospect, though. He’s worked out at both tackle spots, and I thought he was their second-best left tackle during training camp.
With two new players on the left side of Maye’s line, the Patriots seem to prefer the more experienced option.
Why couldn’t the Patriots’ receivers get more open vs. the Bengals? I expected a comedy of errors (like Hunter Henry’s TD). Did Cincy ball out, or did the Patriots sleepwalk? – @JohnK02733480
It seemed as though the Bengals played a little more man-to-man than the Patriots are accustomed to seeing. That might be something Maye sees more of as the season wears on.
He has scorched zone coverages on a regular basis, and he’s seen a bunch of them because opposing defenses fear his ability to break the pocket and run. Man coverages, if defensive backs get their backs turned following their assignments, can be skewered by mobile quarterbacks who see open rushing lanes.
If zone is a bad idea… and man is a bad idea because it gives Maye the option to scramble… can defenses find a way to play man and limit Maye’s ability to scoot?
We’ve seen some drop-eight — only three pass-rushers — plans work against the Patriots. And we’ve seen some quarterback spy calls defensively (think Tampa Bay with spying linebacker Lavonte David) have some success against them.
If teams feel they have an athlete who can mirror Maye to pair with coverage players who can man-up on Stefon Diggs, Kayshon Boutte and other Patriots wideouts, Maye and McDaniels might see more of those looks in the coming weeks.
All that being said, despite starting slow, Maye averaged 10.1 yards per attempt and had a quarterback rating of 116.0 after his first eight pass attempts against Cincinnati. It wasn’t as though the Bengals exactly had the blueprint to confound him for four quarters.
The more I see this team play, the more I see that they need more firepower at WR. Would you go all-in on George Pickens in the offseason instead of a trade for AJ Brown and give up needed assets? – @MasonStorm
This is somewhat related to the previous question. The Patriots aren’t loaded with receivers who strike fear into the hearts of defensive coordinators because they will torch man coverage on a regular basis when given the opportunity. So I understand what you’re saying, Mason.
I’m just not sure George Pickens is the kind of guy they want to bring aboard and sign for a boatload of dough. Could be wrong there but that’s just my initial reaction to that idea.
This might give people shivers up their spines, but the best place to find a wideout might be at the back end of the first round in next year’s NFL Draft. There’s some talent at that position in this class.
Do the Patriots score from the 1-yard line if Khyiris Tonga is still in the game? – @paulgold1970
I think there’s a good chance. He’s a tank. It’s interesting how injuries impacted the Patriots’ ability to use certain personnel packages down at the goal line.
Ben Brown is typically the extra offensive linemen for “jumbo” types of looks, but he was at left guard for the injured Jared Wilson. Later in the game, Lowe had to play left tackle for Campbell, eliminating another option for the Patriots at the big-bodied tight end spot. With Tonga out, they lost their most powerful fullback. All of that played into their inability to punch it in from the one-yard line.
Are those injuries legitimate excuses for them not to have scored in that scenario? Not really. But those injuries whittled down their personnel options in those spots.
Down the road if the Patriots ever decide to move Will Campbell to another position (provided they find another LT) could he be moved to right tackle instead of left guard? – @patriots_harley
Possibly, George? I’m just not sure they should be itching to move him anywhere.
As a rookie, Campbell has given the Patriots top-half-of-the-NFL left-tackle play. He’s graded out as a top-15 guy in both the run and the pass, per Pro Football Focus. That’s hard to find.
Plus, if the Patriots are going to be winning a bunch of games for the foreseeable future now, it’s going to be even harder for them to find that prototypical left tackle because those guys usually are only available in the draft… and early in the first round.
Campbell should be given the chance, in my opinion, to settle on Maye’s blind side until he proves to them he doesn’t deserve it. Hasn’t happened yet.
Why does Tom Curran call you The Senator? – @spalazz22
Years ago, Sam, when we started working together, he thought I had a “senatorial look,” and so he rolled with that. Not sure it was a compliment, but he’s persistent, and it’s stuck.