Carolina’s inconsistency has the team in a tough spot with five games remaining, but the team remains in the playoff hunt.

CHARLOTTE, N.C. — The Carolina Panthers failed to capitalize on a huge opportunity in Monday night’s loss to the San Francisco 49ers.

A win would have boosted morale and given Carolina the NFC South lead, greatly increasing the team’s playoff chances. Instead, Carolina’s offense sputtered and let three first-half defensive interceptions go to waste. San Francisco won 20-9.

The Panthers (6-6) entered Monday’s game with a 27% chance to make the playoffs, according to a playoff simulator created by The Athletic. Carolina’s odds are down to 25% with the loss. A win would have given the Panthers a 41% chance at the postseason.

Carolina has five games left on the schedule, including three divisional games. If the Panthers hope to make the playoffs, it’s pivotal that they win as much as they can in the closing weeks of the season.

Naturally, the Panthers’ odds will fluctuate throughout the remainder of the year and depend on how the NFC South-leading Tampa Bay Buccaneers perform as well. Carolina has a 24% chance to win the division, but its Wild Card chances are fewer than 1%, so we’ll focus on the NFC South title fight for now.

The Panthers face the Rams, Saints, Buccaneers, Seahawks, and Buccaneers again in their final five games. Tampa Bay faces Arizona, New Orleans, Carolina, Atlanta, Miami, and Carolina again in the last six weeks.


Potential scenarios

Carolina’s odds increase to 36% with a win against the Rams in Week 13. Those odds increase to 42% if Tampa Bay loses to Arizona in Week 13. 

The most crucial games on the Panthers’ schedule are two dates with Tampa Bay in Weeks 16 and 18. If the Panthers manage to win both of those games and lose their other three, their playoff odds hit 47%. Their odds increase to around 87% if they win any of their other three games in this scenario.

If the Panthers split the season series with the Buccaneers, they will need to win all three games against the Rams, Saints, and Seahawks in order to have a solid playoff chance (76%). If they lose any of those three games, their odds shrink to 27% or less. 

Tampa Bay’s results will also factor into Carolina’s chances for the NFC South title. If the season series is split and both teams win their remaining games, Tampa Bay will win the division. 

If the Panthers sweep the Buccaneers and lose the other three games, they have a 48% chance at the division title without accounting for Tampa Bay’s results. The Panthers will need the Buccaneers to lose at least one more game to likely win the title in this scenario.

A Tampa Bay sweep would prove disastrous for the Panthers. Even if Carolina wins their other three games, two losses against the Buccaneers would effectively eliminate any chance for the division. The Buccaneers would need to lose all their remaining games for the Panthers to win the division in this scenario.

There are a plethora of scenarios that will impact Carolina’s playoff chances, but winning consistently in their final games will greatly increase their playoff odds.


The wild story of the 2014 Panthers

Inconsistency has been a theme of the 2025 Panthers, but fans can look at the 2014 team to see that it is possible to find a late hot streak and sneak into the postseason.

After 12 games, the Panthers were an abysmal 3-8-1, losing six straight games after a 3-2-1 start. The Panthers rebounded by winning their final four games, including victories against all three divisional opponents. 

Carolina won the division with a 7-8-1 record, becoming the second-ever NFL team to win its division with a losing record. The Panthers followed up the title win with a Wild Card game victory over Arizona.

Before the four-game winning streak earned the Panthers a playoff berth, Carolina held a 6% chance to make the postseason, according to research by FiveThirtyEight. The Panthers miraculously overcame those odds to win the division.

Carolina won’t need such a monumental feat in 2025, but the past at least shows it’s possible.