The Kansas City Chiefs and Dallas Cowboys will face each other in the mid-afternoon game on Thanksgiving Day, which may end up being one of the most-viewed regular-season games in NFL history.
We know you’re going to watch this game, a pivotal one for both teams, so let’s go ahead and place a few bets and see if we can win a couple of dollars. In this article, I’m going to give you my top three bets for this marquee matchup.
Chiefs vs. Cowboys Best Bet
In this week’s edition of the Road to 272 Bets, you’ll find my breakdown for why I’m laying the points with the Chiefs in this one:
I’m not ready to buy in on the Cowboys. I understand they’ve been better defensively since the trade deadline, but a win against the Las Vegas Raiders and the Philadelphia Eagles with some offensive issues isn’t enough for me to buy all in on this team. Meanwhile, I believe the Chiefs are underrated in the betting market for the first time in a long time. While their record isn’t nearly as good as last season, the Chiefs’ underlying metrics are significantly better, including ranking fifth in overall DVOA and 11th in Net Yards per Play, both of which are far better than they ranked last season.
Let’s not forget how bad the Cowboys’ secondary has been. They rank 27th in opponent dropback success rate and 26th in opponent dropback EPA. They’ve also allowed the second-most yards per pass attempt at 7.3. The Chiefs have only faced one defense this season that ranks in the bottom 10 in that stat. It was the Commanders’ back on Oct. 27, and the Chiefs won 28-7 behind 299 passing yards by Patrick Mahomes.
This is quietly a great matchup for the Chiefs. I’ll lay the field goal on them in Dallas.
Pick: Chiefs -3.5 (+100)
Chiefs Best Prop Bet vs. Cowboys
Patrick Mahomes is averaging 270.6 passing yards per game this season, three more yards than his set total for this game. He’ll face a Cowboys run defense that has improved since the trade deadline, but their secondary is still weak, ranking 27th in opponent dropback EPA and opponent dropback success rate. It’s also worth noting that the Chiefs have played just one secondary that ranks in the bottom 10 of the NFL. It was the Commanders, whom Mahomes threw for 299 yards against en route to a 28-7 victory.
Pick: Patrick Mahomes OVER 270.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Cowboys Best Prop Bet vs. Chiefs
George Pickens has been unbelievable this season. He already has 1,054 yards on the season, averaging 95.8 yards per game and 15.7 yards per reception. The Chiefs’ defense hasn’t been nearly as good this season as they were last year, and they don’t have a corner skilled enough to shut down Pickens. If you’re looking for a bet on the Cowboys today, Pickens to go over 73.5 receiving yards is the wager to make.
Pick: George Pickens OVER 73.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
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You can check out all of Iain’s bets here!