NFL Week 12 overreactions: Chiefs stay alive, Cowboys shock Eagles
USA TODAY Sports’ Prince Grimes ‘overreacts’ to some of the best games from Sunday’s Week 12 slate.
The Detroit Lions had no trouble making the playoffs in 2024, cruising to a 15-2 regular-season record and earning the NFC’s No. 1 seed in a Week 18 matchup against the Minnesota Vikings.
Their path to the postseason won’t be quite as easy in 2025, as Detroit enters its yearly Thanksgiving game on the outside looking in of the NFC playoff picture.
To be clear, the Lions aren’t far back in the postseason race. They would be the first team out if the postseason started today, standing at No. 8 in the NFC and sporting a solid 7-4 record. Their team has performed admirably despite having to replace both Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn during the offseason, and Jahmyr Gibbs has stated his case as the NFL’s most explosive playmaker throughout the season.
Even more encouragingly, the Lions are just a game back of first place in the NFC North despite being third in the division. If they can get a timely win or two, their fortune could change quickly in what figures to be another closely contested race in one of the NFL’s best overall divisions.
Here’s a look at the Lions’ estimated playoff chances, their remaining schedule and a full look at the NFC North standings and playoff picture.
Lions playoff odds
The Lions enter Week 13 with an estimated 76% chance to make the playoffs, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. This is despite Detroit currently ranking eighth in the NFC standings, a half-game back of both the Packers and the San Francisco 49ers at the bottom of the wild-card picture.
Detroit’s odds reflect the tight nature of both the NFC North and the NFC wild-card picture. And while a win could quickly shift things in the Lions’ favor, a Thanksgiving loss could end up putting them further behind the eight ball as they look to make the playoffs for a third consecutive season.
Lions remaining schedule
The Lions will face the fourth-hardest schedule over the final six weeks of the season, per Tankathon. They are scheduled to play just one team that enters Week 13 with a losing record, the Minnesota Vikings, and even that contest is a divisional matchup.
Below is a look at Detroit’s remaining opponents:
Week 13: vs. Green Bay Packers (Thanksgiving)Week 14: vs. Dallas CowboysWeek 15: at Los Angeles RamsWeek 16: vs. Pittsburgh SteelersWeek 17: at Minnesota VikingsWeek 18: at Chicago BearsNFC North standings
The Lions enter Week 13 in third place in the crowded NFC North standings. That said, things could change quickly in that division, as the three teams in the running for the divisional crown are playing on Thanksgiving and Black Friday.
Below is a look at the division standings entering Week 13:
Chicago Bears (8-3)Green Bay Packers (7-3-1)Detroit Lions (7-4)Minnesota Vikings (4-7)
A win over the Packers on Thanksgiving would allow the Lions to at least leapfrog Green Bay and take over second place in the division. A victory and a loss by the Bears to the Philadelphia Eagles on Black Friday would catapult Detroit all the way into first place by virtue of its 52-21 head-to-head win over Chicago in Week 2.
However, a loss would keep the Lions in third place in the NFC North for at least another week. It would be hard for the team to emerge as a threat to take home a third consecutive divisional title while also putting it further behind in the NFC wild-card race.
So, suffice to say the Lions vs. Packers Thanksgiving game will go a long way toward determining the power structure within the division.
NFC playoff pictureLos Angeles Rams (9-2; NFC West leaders)Philadelphia Eagles (8-3; NFC East leaders)Chicago Bears (8-3; NFC North leaders)Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-5; NFC South leaders)Seattle Seahawks (8-3; wild card No. 1)Green Bay Packers (7-3-1; wild card No. 2)San Francisco 49ers (8-4; wild card No. 3)
In the hunt: Detroit Lions (7-4); Carolina Panthers (6-6); Dallas Cowboys (5-5-1); Atlanta Falcons (4-7); Minnesota Vikings (4-7); Arizona Cardinals (3-8); Washington Commanders (3-8); New Orleans Saints (2-9);
Eliminated: New York Giants (2-10).