After a listless home loss to the Atlanta Falcons last week, the 2-9 New Orleans Saints return to the road this Sunday. Their Week 13 opponent will be the 4-7 Miami Dolphins. Coming off a bye, the Dolphins have won two consecutive games and three of their last four contests.
New Orleans has been far more effective on defense than on offense this season, but it’s still been an inconsistent unit. The Saints rank 12th in overall defense but have had issues on third downs and with situational football. Miami counters with an offense that ranks just 25th overall. The Dolphins have some explosive talent but have struggled to put points on the board. That explosive talent includes their running game, which is where we focus this analysis.
Dolphins Rushing Attack112.8 yards per game (18th)4.8 per carry (8th)7 touchdowns (23rd)
Third-year back De’Von Achane is one of the most explosive running backs in the league and can break off long gains in the blink of an eye. He has 900 rushing yards so far, just seven short of his career best, while averaging 5.5 per attempt and running for 5 touchdowns. Achane has rushed for over 120 yards in his last two games, has two additional outings of over 80 yards on the ground and three more with at least 65 yards. While not a big back, Achane has elite speed and slips through open lanes in a flash.
Backing up Achane is sixth-round rookie Ollie Gordon III. A bigger and more physical player, Gordon also has underrated speed once into open space. He has only 50 rushes for 164 yards so far, but has proven to be an effective inside runner. Second-year back Jaylen Wright has similar big-play qualities to Achane, but only has 15 runs for 49 yards in four games after missing the first part of the year.
Miami ranks just 28th in rushing attempts. If not for Achane’s breakaway runs, they’d be at the bottom of the league in terms of rushing production. Even if they don’t often have the patience to stick with the run, Achane is a lethal threat who can alter a game with just a few opportunities.
Saints Run Defense123.6 yards per game (21st)4 yards per carry (9th)9 touchdowns (12th)
New Orleans has improved from the previous two years version against the run. However, they’ve been prone to big plays along the outside. A perfect example is a back-breaking long gain by Atlanta’s Bijan Robinson last week that was officially ruled a pass but was essentially a pitch to the edge. The Saints have held five opponents to under 90 yards on the ground, but have allowed an average of over 160 yards rushing in their other six contests.
Most of those struggles have been due to an inconsistent performance along the defensive line. Nose tackle Davon Godchaux just hasn’t been a factor and is one of several areas that need a major upgrade this offseason. Bryan Bresee can cause disruption, but is more of a slasher that needs a good tackle beside him to tie up blockers. Nathan Shepherd has been the team’s best down lineman recently, with the whole line doing a better job at shutting down inside rushing lanes.
On the edge, Carl Granderson has been virtually invisible since a strong start to the year. Chase Young and Cameron Jordan have both played well on the outside to make up for Granderson, at least to a certain extent. Alontae Taylor is the Saints strongest run defender in the secondary. Taylor creates havoc along the line of scrimmage and has 5 tackles for loss. Safety Justin Reid has largely been a disappointment in his first year with the Saints, but can be an effective run defender when he drops down into the tackle box.
Demario Davis is still the heart and soul of the defense. Davis has a team-high 102 tackles, including 5 for loss. He may have lost a step in pursuit, but more than makes up for that with his elite instincts and ability to read offenses. Fellow linebacker Pete Werner is second to Davis with 62 tackles and is a solid run defender coming downhill in the tackle box. Where Werner has been a major liability is outside the tackles and in space. This could obviously present a huge problem against Achane and the Dolphins. Young linebackers Danny Stutsman and Isaiah Stalbird have been getting more looks lately. Stutsman is a bigger and more physical player, while the athletic Stalbird has been a heat-seeking missile to the ball.