2. Don’t give Bo Nix easy reads.
The Commanders showed noticeable improvement two weeks ago against the Dolphins, forcing three punts on top of getting two goal line stops and holding Tua Tagovailoa to 171 passing yards. They’ll need to do something similar to Broncos quarterback Bo Nix, who is just as capable of playing the position at a high level, like he did in the Broncos’ win over the Kansas City Chiefs, as he is to struggle against lower caliber defenses.
Nix has provided a mix of both performances this season, although it’s worth noting that he hasn’t done much to put the Broncos in peril during their eight-game win streak. Although he himself didn’t score in the Broncos’ 22-19 win over the Chiefs in Week 11, he was accurate with the football with a 64.9 completion percentage and put the Broncos in range for a game-winning field goal by going 4-of-6 on the final drive, including a 32-yard shot to Troy Franklin.
That isn’t a complete reflection of how the season has gone for Nix, though. He’s also struggled against teams like the Tennessee Titans, New York Jets and Las Vegas Raiders — teams with middling defenses and that are all currently in the top five of the draft order — throwing three touchdowns to three interceptions in those matchups. As a result, the offense delivered poorer performances; although the Broncos won those games, the unit failed to score more than 20 points.
Regardless of how Nix plays, the Broncos have not been an explosive offense this year. They rank 17th in yards per play, and Nix has the lowest differential in average completed air yards (4.6) and intended air yards (8.2). However, that doesn’t mean Nix is incapable of explosive plays. He’s tied for fifth in completions of at least 20 yards, according to Pro Football Focus, and is tied for the third-most big-time throws (17).
So, it will be important for the Commanders to keep Nix as confused as possible and get the Raiders version of the quarterback to be at Northwest Stadium rather than the Chiefs version. Quinn confirmed the Commanders played more zone coverage in certain situations against the Dolphins, which could be another wrinkle for the Broncos, who are expecting a Commanders defense that has primarily played man coverage this season.
The Commanders also anticipate Will Harris, who has missed most of the season with a fractured fibula, to return this weekend. Harris was expected to provide the Commanders with more options in coverage prior to his injury, and his presence could mean more flexibility against a Broncos team that is performing around league average in most metrics.