Denver Broncos at Washington Commanders 5 questions: How much of a shock is this season?

Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders were the surprise team of the season a year ago.

The rookie quarterback took the NFL by storm and led the Commanders to an appearance in the NFC Championship game. That was due to one of the biggest playoff upsets in recent memory when Washington beat the Detroit Lions on the road.

Fast-forward to today, and the Commanders have fallen off. Entering Week 13, Washington is 3-8 and will miss the playoffs. The Commanders have faced injuries, namely to Daniels, and they just haven’t looked like the same team. Now, Washington faces one of the top teams in the NFL in the Denver Broncos (9-2) on Sunday Night Football. FanDuel Sportsbook has the Commanders as +5.5-point home underdogs. The total sits at over/under 43.5 points.

Just how much of a shock has this season been for Washington?

We go “behind enemy lines” to get a feel for the Commanders heading into Sunday Night Football with Andrew York from Hogs Haven to preview Sunday’s game. Here are my answers to Andrew’s 5 questions about the Broncos.

MHR: How are Commanders fans feeling entering Week 13? What has been the biggest surprise at this point?

Andrew: I would say that Commanders fans mostly feel dejected and confused, and are looking towards next year. We also really don’t want to watch the Eagles win another Super Bowl. The biggest surprise has been how everything went right for the Commanders last year, and everything has gone wrong this year. The biggest change has been injury luck, which I’ll talk about in the next answer, but last year the Commanders were one of the healthiest teams in the NFL, only losing one impact player (DT Jonathan Allen) to long-term injury during the season. This year, the Commanders are one of the most injured teams, losing many of their best players to long-term injuries as well as playing a far more difficult schedule.

MHR: What has been the reason for the drop-off this season? Based on last season’s success, how much of a shock is this?

Andrew: As mentioned before, the biggest reason is injuries. On defense, the Commanders have been without their starting QB, WR1, WR3, and RB1 for most of the season. On defense, they have been without their top three defensive ends, their best safety, and have lost their top two cornerbacks to season-ending injuries. What’s more, the injuries have been perfectly placed to expose weaknesses on the rest of the roster. The duo of Jayden Daniels and Terry McLaurin was really the tent poles that held up the offense, so losing them has caused the entire offense to regress. The injuries at DE have exposed the poor tackling of the secondary and the inability of the LBs to contain runs to the edge.

The second biggest reason has been a much harder schedule. The Commanders played a relatively easy schedule last year, but this year’s schedule has been an absolute gauntlet, and we always seem to be playing teams right when they have something to prove or are getting a bunch of important players back from injury. The third biggest reason seems to be poor coaching by Commanders DC Joe Whitt Jr. The defense has constantly looked out of place and befuddled for most of the season, something that was true last season, but was hidden by the offense carrying the team. Dan Quinn finally demoted Whitt and took over as DC himself in week 11 against the Dolphins, and it was like a completely different defense stepped on the field. I’m hoping that the higher (or at least competent) level of play for the defense can continue.

The collapse of the team has been a total shock for Commanders fans. It’s tough going from the NFC Championship game one year to being embarrassed on a regular basis and losing hope of the playoffs before the bye the next year, despite mostly the same week 1 roster and coaching staff.

MHR: How will the Commanders get the win on Sunday? What does Washington need to do to defensively and offensively against the Broncos?

Andrew: I’m far from confident the Commanders will get the win. However, in order to win, the Commanders absolutely need to carry through some of the momentum of their defensive performance against the Dolphins. I’m hoping Dan Quinn will continue to keep somewhat simple zone coverages, keeping things simple and playing to the strengths of his DBs, and will continue to dial up some creative blitz packages. Getting pressure on Bo Nix while disguising the coverages will be key. They also need to maintain run lanes because Nix can be a rushing threat himself if allowed.

On offense, it’s going to be tough, but I think the Commanders need to lean on the run game and go with some heavy packages of 6 OL. I don’t think the Commanders passing attack will have much success against the Broncos except opportunistically, but I’d like them to try to establish a physical run game and stick to it. The Commanders run game was very successful last year under Kliff Kingsbury, but the game script has forced them to go away from it too much this year.

MHR: What is your best bet for Sunday’s game at FanDuel Sportsbook? How do you feel about the spread?

Andrew: Well, the Broncos are -6.5-point favorites, so I guess that seems right. If you looked at the Commanders’ point differentials from weeks 7-10, you’d probably say the point spread should be twice that or more, but I do think the Commanders defense will be improved with Dan Quinn taking over DC responsibilities. I’m not super familiar with FanDuel, but if I read the page correctly, the Broncos are only 1.5 point favorites in the 4th quarter. My best bet would be to take the over on Broncos 4th-quarter points, since they’ve made a living off scoring points in the 4th quarter this year. Alternatively, I’d bet the under on total points, because I think this will be more of a defensive game.

MHR: What are your expectations and predictions for Sunday’s game?

Andrew: I expect the Commanders to have a lot of trouble moving the ball. Not only do the Broncos have a great defense, but the Commanders will still be missing Jayden Daniels and probably Terry McLaurin. I’m hoping the Commanders’ defense can maintain its improvement and keep the overall game low-scoring, though. This is a very tough game to predict because both teams will be coming off their bye and could be switching things up from a scheme/playcalling perspective. I predict the Broncos will have a lot of success with runs to the edge, because that is the Commanders greatest weakness. I also predict the Commanders will attempt to use more heavy packages and have a more physical run game with Chris Rodriguez Jr as the feature RB than they have had this season, since he is the most physical rusher on the roster.