FOXBORO — Twelve games is no small sample size.
We can, with some level of confidence, state that the Patriots are a good football team. They may be a good football team with a relatively weak schedule, yes, but they are a good team nonetheless. You are what your record says you are, and they’re atop the conference at 10-2.
We can also say, with perhaps an even greater level of confidence, that Drake Maye’s second season has been historically effective to this point. He currently leads the league in win percentage (83.3), completion percentage (71.0) and pass yards (3,130). He would be only the fourth quarterback in the Super Bowl Era to lead the NFL in passing yards in one of his first two seasons (Joe Namath, Dan Marino, Drew Bledsoe).
But what makes Monday night’s matchup between the Patriots and Giants fascinating is that it is about the unknown.
Losing two starting linemen — left tackle Will Campbell and left guard Jared Wilson — to injury won’t suddenly make the Patriots a bad football team. But those injuries don’t make them any better. And the lineup changes made to compensate might force Mike Vrabel’s club to make some schematic alterations on the fly.
Drake Maye reacts to the news that starting left tackle Will Campbell has been placed on IR and will miss at least the next four games.
They could change up their running game to lean into the outside runs they’ve executed well this season. They could leave playmaking backs and tight ends in as pass-protectors to help projected starters Vederian Lowe at left tackle and Ben Brown at left guard. They could have Maye try to get rid of the football more quickly since he currently ranks 36th out of 41 quarterbacks in quick-game rate, according to Sumer Sports.
Vrabel was asked about encouraging Maye to throw soon after the snap earlier this week.
“I think that that’s based on how many guys are in protection and what the coverage is,” Vrabel said, “and not just getting rid of it, just throwing it into a team meeting and just saying, ‘Well, I got rid of it quickly.’ I think it’s about understanding the intent of the play, where you feel like you’re protected and where you maybe aren’t when the ball has to come out on time.
“We’ve seen him transfer up into the pocket, keep two hands on the football and keep his eyes downfield. And then when we leave the pocket, we’ve got to make great decisions and remain a passer, but also understand that these guys are coming. We’ve seen a lot of hits at the sidelines from all the quarterbacks. Just better get out or get down.”
The Giants, meanwhile, might be willing to try some things in primetime that haven’t typically worked against Maye this year. But Maye has had the same line combination protecting him for 11 of 12 games, and so with some shuffling up front, maybe the Giants see an opening.
Might they be willing to blitz Maye more? He’s diced opposing blitz schemes in general and leads the NFL in yards passing when blitzed.
Might they be more willing to load the box in order to pressure Maye? Maye has 240 yards passing more than any other quarterback when seeing single-high safety looks. His 9.6 yards per attempt against those structures is the fifth-highest mark for any quarterback since 2018, per NextGen Stats.
Or maybe the Giants will do more of what some other recent Patriots opponents have done, rushing only three and dropping eight into coverage to flood potential passing lanes. Could injuries to Maye’s offensive line encourage New York to try to get away with a lighter number of pass-rushers in the name of clouding Maye’s ability to read coverage from the pocket?
We haven’t seen Maye have to play a game wire-to-wire behind a line with multiple backups. We also haven’t seen a defense prepare to play the Patriots with the starting blindside tandem of New England’s protection scheme sidelined.
After a dozen games of proof as to what this year’s Patriots offense really is, Monday’s game will feature some shakeup. And if they happen to come out the other side with a convincing win — showing an ability to overcome adversity, to adapt on the fly — it’ll just be another bit of evidence that, yes, they’re a good football team.
Here are the matchups we’ll be watching…
Matchup that will determine the outcome
Drake Maye vs. Giants pass-rushers
This game could come down to Maye and Josh McDaniels having a solution to the most fearsome portion of the Giants roster at the moment. In addition to potentially getting Maye to utilize more quick-game concepts, McDaniels could incorporate more moving pockets, screens or draws and edge-stressing runs.
Whatever they do, it has to be a priority of theirs to try to mitigate the effectiveness of the pass-rushing trio of Brian Burns, Kayvon Thibodeaux and Abdul Carter.
Burns has the fourth-best figure (among players with at least 30 pressures) when it comes to the percentage of his pressures that turn into sacks: 31.0. He also has five sacks when doubled, third-most in the NFL, meaning plans by McDaniels to chip Burns will be only so effective. He may see more Morgan Moses than Lowe, given that he likes to align on the offensive right, but the Giants could move him around to take advantage of matchups they see as advantageous.
While Carter has only 0.5 sacks this season, that doesn’t mean he hasn’t been effective. He has the fourth-most quick pressures (within 2.5 seconds) of any edge defender. His 2.58-second average time to pressure is third in the NFL, per NextGen.
If the Patriots can keep Maye clean, he’ll have a chance to add to his NFL-leading total of 32 completions into “tight” (within a yard or less of separation by the targeted receiver) windows. Maye’s 51.6 percent completion rate into those small openings is the highest by any passer since at least 2018, according to NextGen. The Giants rank in the top 10 in forcing tight window throws (16.3 percent of targets, ninth).
Matchup that could surprise you
Patriots running game vs. Giants defense
While their pass-rush is formidable, what the Giants do up front against the run… not so much.
They rank last in EPA allowed per rush — and by a wide margin. They’re also last in the league in rushing yards over expected allowed, indicating that there should be opportunities for Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson to run through contact.
We’ll see if Stevenson is able to up his workload after coming back from a toe injury last week in Cincinnati. If it’s Henderson’s job primarily once again, expect the Patriots to be running in the direction of tight ends Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper. In the last four weeks, with Henderson leading the charge and averaging 5.1 yards per attempt, two-thirds of his runs have gone toward the strong side of Patriots formations. That’s bad news for New York, which allows 6.7 yards per carry to backs running to the strong side — a full yard more than any other team, per NextGen.
The Patriots have struggled to run the ball with any consistency this season. They’re 27th in yards per carry and 26th in EPA per rush. But against the far-and-away worst rush defense in football, they could put together a surprisingly-productive effort.
Matchup that will make your Sunday
Patriots secondary vs. Jaxson Dart
With rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart expected to be back in the starting lineup, the Patriots secondary could have some opportunities to make plays deep down the field.
Among 29 qualifying quarterbacks, Dart ranks second in average depth of target (9.4); he loves to launch it. But he’s 19th in turnover-worthy play percentage, per Pro Football Focus (3.4), and he’s 17th in adjusted completion percentage on deep passes. He’s the third-slowest to get rid of the football (3.09 seconds) and his pressure-to-sack rate is fourth-highest (23.3), so even if the Patriots secondary isn’t able to get its hands on his passes, perhaps the New England pass-rush will get its hands on him.
Per PFF, since Christian Gonzalez returned to the lineup, the Patriots have an excellent 81.2 coverage grade as a team. With him off the field, their coverage grade was 45.6. Gonzalez has allowed a 52.5 percent completion percentage in coverage this season, according to NextGen, the 11th-lowest among 63 cornerbacks with at least 40 targets. His 6.1 yards per target allowed is the ninth-lowest mark in the NFL.
Matchup that could ruin your Sunday
Patriots vs. the schedule
If the scariest matchup for the Patriots is the Giants pass-rush against their offensive line, the next up on the list might be one largely out of their control: the schedule.
Why? This will be 13 consecutive games for New England prior to their late bye week. They lost Campbell (knee), Wilson (ankle), special-teams ace Brenden Schooler (ankle) and defensive tackle Khyiris Tonga (chest) to injury in Week 12. Prior to that, they lost standout defensive tackle Milton Williams (ankle).
With some rest on the horizon, Monday’s game will be in some ways a test of endurance after a relentless march to December. The team has to hope it can get into its bye as healthy as possible with a real opportunity to go after a division title and the No. 1 playoff seed in the AFC down the stretch.
Prediction: Patriots 24, Giants 17