Broncos (9-2) at Commanders (3-8)

When: Sunday, 6:20 p.m.

Where: Northwest Stadium, Landover, Md.

TV: KUSA-9

Radio: 850 AM, 94.1 FM

Broncos-Commanders series: There’s not a long history in this cross-conference matchup, with the Broncos ahead 8-7-0 all-time in 15 meetings. Denver and Washington last met in September 2023, back before both organizations turned to franchise quarterbacks in the 2024 draft. The Commanders won that last game 35-33 behind Sam Howell.

In the spotlight: The Battle of the Mighty Ducks descends on D.C.

Well, this isn’t quite the primetime matchup the NFL booked these Broncos for.

Sunday falls perhaps one game short of Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels’ return from a dislocated elbow, and far short of the Sunday Night Football matchup the league expected between Daniels and Bo Nix. There will be no duel of top quarterbacks from an exploding 2024 rookie class. No cross-conference duel of ascending franchises in the nation’s capital. Daniels has scuffled through an injury-married 2025 after a captivating rookie season, and he’ll watch Nix from the sidelines on Sunday.

In Daniels’ place is a familiar face — for Nix, at least. Marcus Mariota, 32, is still the greatest quarterback in Oregon’s franchise history, a Duck that a grade-school-aged Nix grew up watching on television. This Mariota is a far cry from the dynamism of those days in Eugene, the No. 2 pick in the 2015 draft having long fallen short of expectations in the NFL and long into life as a career backup. But he’s still a dynamic scrambler in a zone-read scheme, leaving less-mobile Broncos backups Jarrett Stidham and Sam Ehlinger to try to replicate Mariota’s wheels on scout-team offenses this week.

“They don’t quite do it justice (for) a guy like that,” Nix cracked Wednesday.

And Mariota still has enough juice to run Washington’s offense capably enough, as Broncos head coach Sean Payton pointed out Wednesday. Denver still prepared this week for the long-shot possibility that Daniels would tug on shoulder-pads Sunday, as Payton is forever haunted by the memory of DeMarcus Ware running out against his former Saints in a 2009 game after three missed days of practice. But the Broncos’ overall prep for the Commanders didn’t change much despite two obviously different threats at quarterback, Payton made clear.

“We prepare for the system,” Payton said Wednesday. “And their system, really – there’s a reason Marcus is there. He can run this very fluidly, and he can beat you with his legs. And so, we prepare for what we’re seeing scheme-wise.”

The good news: no quarterback has been able to beat defensive coordinator Vance Joseph’s scheme with their legs in 2025. Time and again, Joseph’s cage-rush principles have contained some of the game’s true dual-threat Houdini artists from escaping the pocket. The Eagles’ Jalen Hurts ran for just three yards on two carries in Week 5. The Jets’ Justin Fields had seven carries for 31 yards a week later. Patrick Mahomes had exactly one carry for three yards in the Broncos’ win over the Chiefs before the bye.

And when Mariota hasn’t picked up yards with his legs, the Commanders’ offense has sputtered in Daniels’ absence. Washington has averaged 14 points a game across four straight losses, sinking into a lost season in the process. WR1 Terry McLaurin should provide a boost in a return from a quad injury, but Mariota hasn’t beaten teams with his arm in general, yet to throw more than 30 times in any start this season.

Nix, meanwhile, has a chance to tee off against a rough Commanders defense. Washington has surrendered an average of 7.8 yards on passing plays this season, the most in the NFL. And Nix’s deep ball finally clicked against the Chiefs in Week 11, hitting on four passes of 20-plus yards against Kansas City.

If that holds in primetime Sunday, Nix is poised to take down an older generation of Duck quarterback dynasty.

Who has the edge?

When Broncos run: The Commanders’ run defense is suspect outside of stud linebacker Bobby Wagner, who’ll make his plays Sunday behind a defensive line that’s been significantly affected by the season-ending loss of outside linebacker Dorance Armstrong. The Broncos’ current backfield, though, is still an unproven commodity without J.K. Dobbins. Rookie RJ Harvey finished with just 30 yards on 11 carries against the Chiefs. Head coach Sean Payton has repeatedly expressed confidence in Harvey and veteran Jaleel McLaughlin, though, and this would be a good week for a breakout. Edge: Even

When Broncos pass: The biggest impediment to a Bo Nix explosion Sunday might be doses of forecasted rain in Maryland. Not the Commanders’ secondary. Not even close. Washington’s defense surrendered at least three passing touchdowns in four straight weeks to Dak Prescott, Patrick Mahomes, Sam Darnold and Jared Goff, before finally tightening up against Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins in an overtime loss in Week 11. Nix is coming off his best game of the year against Kansas City, and gets an easier matchup here. Edge: Broncos

When Commanders run: Washington’s outside-zone-heavy attack hasn’t waned much in effectiveness even in a bad year, as the Commanders sit fifth in the NFL in rushing. There are cracks here, though, without Daniels running the offense. Rookie RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt hasn’t averaged more than four yards a carry in any game since early October, and Washington’s turned increasingly to reserve back Chris Rodriguez. This is the most dangerous aspect of Washington’s attack, but the Broncos haven’t given up more than 100 yards on the ground to any team since the Cowboys in Week 8. Slight edge: Broncos

When Commanders pass: Mariota has put up decent efficiency numbers, with a 95.7 quarterback rating and 7.7 yards per attempt in five games as a starter this year. It hasn’t translated to winning, though, or consistent offense. McLaurin’s return from injury should help, because Washington has no consistent big-play threats; offseason addition Deebo Samuel has 53 catches but is averaging just 8.2 yards a touch. Pat Surtain’s expected to return this week too, though, so McLaurin won’t exactly be eased back into action. Edge: Broncos

Special teams: Commanders rookie Jaylin Lane has some juice in the punt game, and already has a 90-yard return for a TD this year. But Washington has major problems at kicker, cutting veteran Matt Gay a couple weeks ago in the midst of a shaky season. The Commanders signed journeyman Jake Moody off the Bears’ practice squad as a replacement, a kicker with a career 76.1% clip on field goals. Edge: Broncos

Coaching: Head coach Dan Quinn announced Nov. 10 that he’d be taking over defensive play-calling duties in Washington, which is never a great sign. It worked against Miami, though, as the Commanders surrendered just 16 points in an overtime loss. Quinn’s got a Super Bowl appearance back with the Falcons in 2016 under his belt — never mind what actually happened in that Super Bowl — and a renaissance season in Washington last year. But Denver’s Payton-Joseph duo might win this category every week from here on out. Edge: Broncos

Tale of the tape

Broncos
Commanders

Total offense
335.3 (14th)
330.2 (17th)

Rush offense
122.3 (T-10th)
138.5 (6th)

Pass offense
213.0 (17th)
191.6 (24th)

Points per game
23.4 (T-16th)
21.5 (23rd)

Total defense
274.4 (3rd)
387.0 (31st)

Run defense
88.5 (3rd)
137.5 (27th)

Pass defense
185.8 (6th)
249.5 (29th)

Points allowed
17.3 (3rd)
26.9 (28th)

By the numbers

11: The most yardage picked up on a single carry by Commanders rookie RB Jacory Crosky-Merritt in his last six games

143.4: Opposing quarterbacks’ rating when targeting Washington safety Quan Martin.

6.0: The Commanders’ average yards per play on runs outside the tackles, the best mark in the NFL.

50%: The percentage of time Pat Surtain II has forced a tight window on targets against him this season, the best mark in the NFL.

19: The number of catches for Washington’s top receiver Terry McLaurin in tight windows in 2024, the most in the NFL.

83.7: Bo Nix’s quarterback rating in the Broncos’ nine wins this year, the lowest mark by any quarterback in their team’s wins (at least nine) in the last 10 years.

X-factors

Broncos: WR Marvin Mims Jr. Mims was limited to just 15 offensive snaps in his return from a concussion in Week 11 against the Chiefs, and doesn’t have a single catch since Week 7. This could be the week, though, that he’s fully reintroduced into Payton’s offense. With Dobbins out, Mims could see some backfield touches, too, and is primed to help Nix stretch the field against a slower-moving Commanders defense.

Commanders: CB Mike Sainstril. The second-year corner is the definition of boom-or-bust, recording three picks and seven passes defended this year — but also surrendering six touchdowns. If he can win matchups against Courtland Sutton on Sunday, Nix’s life will be considerably harder in rainy Maryland. If Sutton outmuscles Sainstril on the outside, Nix could tee off.

Post predictions

Parker Gabriel, Broncos writer: Broncos 25, Commanders 13

Denver’s riding high coming off the bye week and reinforcements are on the way. It wouldn’t be a surprise if Sean Payton’s team came out humming and hammered Washington. At the same time, there’s a nagging feeling about traveling to the East Coast for primetime off a long layoff and the chance for a sluggish start. Really, the only thing that would actually be a stunner: Denver losing.

Luca Evans, Broncos writer: Broncos 31, Commanders 10

The scent of a primetime blowout is wafting across Sunday night’s matchup, stronger than turkey fresh out of the oven. The Commanders’ offense has looked repeatedly helpless in recent weeks, and now gets to stare down one of the best defensive lines in the league fresh off a bye. The Commanders’ defense has been so hapless that head coach Dan Quinn took over as the play-caller. Book it.

Troy Renck, columnist: Broncos 27, Commanders 13

Sean Payton beats bad teams. It is what he does, and has done so since arriving in Denver. Washington stinks. After reaching the NFC Championship game, the Commanders have aged in dog years. They are old and slow, and Jayden Daniels can’t rescue them. Look for Bo Nix to get his fix of deep passes as Denver cruises to its ninth straight win.

Sean Keeler, columnist: Broncos 23, Commanders 18

The Penners are passing contract extensions around like cranberry relish, and the chase for the AFC’s No. 1 seed is officially on. Good thing Sean Payton is 7-1 coming off his last eight bye weeks. And Jayden Daniels? Hold ’em, my man. Fold ’em. Walk away. Run. This is not the defense to try to get right against. Trust us.