As we look ahead to the Week 13 matchup between the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans, it’s time to break down the props and lines to find real value. Week 13 gives us a Texans–Colts showdown loaded with chaos potential, postseason stakes, and numbers that are begging to be dissected.
📍 our house. pic.twitter.com/3eBMMrgUSw
— Indianapolis Colts (@Colts) November 26, 2025
Let’s start with the tendencies that actually matter. This matchup pits the Colts’ No. 1 scoring offense (341 points) against a Houston defense that ranks third overall and allows the second-fewest points in the NFL—a classic strength-on-strength collision.
And make no mistake, this game will be decided in the trenches. Indianapolis brings the league’s No. 2 pass-blocking unit and No. 4 run-blocking unit into a fistfight with Houston’s No. 2 pass rush and No. 6 rush defense, setting up a trench war that’s going to last all afternoon.
There’s one stat that jumps off the page: despite those elite metrics, Houston sits at No. 24 in tackling. That’s a dangerous flaw against Jonathan Taylor, who leads the NFL with 891 yards after contact.
Per Next Gen Stats, Jonathan Taylor has 891 rushing yards after contact, the most in the NFL
That means Jonathan Taylor has more yards after contact than five teams have TOTAL rushing yards… pic.twitter.com/EXQxY9WOfs
— Cole🧊 (@ColeCxle) November 14, 2025
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Taylor punishes defenses that can’t consistently get him on the ground, which leads us to our first play of the day: Jonathan Taylor Anytime TD (-190). The trend is as strong as it gets—of the three games this season where Taylor failed to score, he reached the end zone the following week, including two separate three-touchdown eruptions.
Taylor has scored 17 times over his last 10 games, and this feels like another get-right spot. Houston’s tackling issues make it even more appealing.
With Houston’s No. 6 rush defense, this sets up a perfect opportunity to counterpunch through the air. Alec Pierce Over 2.5 Receptions (-137) stands out, especially with recent games of 4, 5, and 6 catches over his last five outings.
Our third play of the day is Colts -2.5 (-170). Indy is 6–0 at home and should come out firing after a frustrating loss to the Chiefs.
Onto the Texans, I like Dalton Schultz Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (-113). With the Colts’ 26th-ranked pass coverage and Schultz hitting this number in three of his last four games, this one feels like an obvious play.
Nov 9, 2025; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans tight end Dalton Schultz (86) runs after the catch against the Jacksonville Jaguars in the fourth quarter at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-Imagn Images | Thomas Shea-Imagn Images
Next, we’re following another trend: the Colts haven’t allowed two passing touchdowns in a game since October 19th, when Justin Herbert shredded them for 420 yards and three scores. Something clearly clicked after that beating.
I like C.J. Stroud Under 1.5 Passing TDs (-132). He’s only cleared this number in three of his last ten outings.
In a game with divisional implications, sharp line movement, and two ascending teams, the board offers plenty of angles—but these five stand tallest.
Whether it’s Taylor’s bounce-back trend, Pierce’s volume, or Stroud’s recent ceiling, the numbers point to Indianapolis holding the stronger edges.
If the Colts control the trenches and dictate tempo at home the way they have all season, this slate has real potential to cash.
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