The best development for the Bills since their disappointing performance at Houston on Nov. 20 is how increasingly wide open the AFC has become.
ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. — Here are my five thoughts on the Buffalo Bills’ game against the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday at Acrisure Stadium:
1. The best development for the Bills since their disappointing performance at Houston on Nov. 20 is how increasingly wide open the AFC has become.
There isn’t a clear top contender in the conference. Yes, at 10-2, the New England Patriots have the inside track on winning the AFC East and might even capture the No. 1 playoff seed. The 9-2 Denver Broncos are also legitimate challenger for the top seed.
But neither could be viewed as having an appreciable edge over the Bills. With both, seeing is not necessarily believing. They have good coaches and some quality players. However, no one can say with a straight face that either quarterback, New England’s Drake Maye or Denver’s Bo Nix, is ready to outduel Josh Allen when the stakes are at their highest.
After that, there isn’t another club looks better than (and might very well be not as good as) the 7-4 Bills. Not the 8-3 Indianapolis Colts or the 6-5 Steelers or the 7-4 Los Angeles Chargers or the 7-4 Jacksonville Jaguars, all of which are ahead of seventh-seeded Buffalo.
The 6-5 Texans are No. 8, yet for all they did to beat up on Allen and stifle the Bills’ offense, they were a play away from losing. After their Thanksgiving losses, the 6-6 Kansas City Chiefs and 6-6 Baltimore Ravens look to be free-falling their way out of the postseason picture. Start waving goodbye to the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes and the Ravens’ Lamar Jackson, the only two quarterbacks who have the best chance of out-dueling Allen.
The basic questions are these: Who can’t the Bills beat among the present contenders now (besides the Steelers, the Patriots are the only other one on their remaining regular-season schedule)? Who can’t they beat in the playoffs, home or away?
The basic answer: Nobody.
That means there should be no (or at least little) cause for panic among Bills fans who believe their Super Bowl dreams are, at best, on life support and, at worst, already dead.
Allen says he and his teammates feel an “extremely high sense of urgency” to win enough games to secure at least a wild-card spot, if not overtake the Patriots to win a sixth consecutive division crown.
“You know, I think there’d be a lot of teams that are wishing that they were 7-4 in the spot that we are,” Allen said. “Also, understanding that opportunity in front of us of, ‘Hey, let’s go out, let’s play as hard as we can, let’s put our best foot forward and try to go get a victory on Sunday.’ ”
“Yeah, the urgency is up,” McDermott said. “That’s important any time of year, but it’s mid to late November and heading into December. So, every game is important. Not that it isn’t every other time of year, but every game is important. It’s a fun time of year when you’re in the hunt.”
2. The not-so-fun part of this week for the Bills is that both of their starting offensive tackles injured in the Houston game — Dion Dawkins (concussion) and Spencer Brown (shoulder) — won’t play Sunday.
It was bad enough they were part of a Bills offensive line the Texans’ pass rush dominated on the way to sacking Allen eight times and getting 12 hits on him. Their absence against a Steelers defensive front that includes star edge rusher T.J. Watt and veteran tackle could bring additional punishment/discomfort to the QB.
Ryan Van Demark is likely to fill one of the openings, while Tylan Grable or rookie Chase Lundt fills the other. Expecting any of them to perform as well as Dawkins and Brown normally do as members of what is widely recognized as one of the top pass-protecting O-lines in the NFL is probably asking too much.
“Obviously, different faces,” Allen said Wednesday, when asked about the prospect of being without Dawkins and Brown. “Different way of communicating with some guys, but full faith in the guys that will play if the other two can’t. Ultimately, it takes everybody doing their job, stepping up and making plays and communicating well and having a good week of practice.
“You can’t replace your two starting tackles. It’s hard to do that. But, again, we trust the guys that are willing to step up and play if need be. We’ve got to trust them and roll with them. … The biggest thing is communication and understanding when you have help, when you don’t. It’s my job to go out there and try to facilitate the football to our guys.”
3. Even if it might be asking a lot, the Bills’ offense – and especially the passing game – needs to get right.
One positive sign is that tight end Dalton Kincaid, who missed the last two games with a hamstring injury suffered Nov. 9 at Miami, was listed as a limited participant in Friday’s practice. Allen has missed his favorite target, who when healthy has played as well as at any point of his career.
Another potential plus is the addition of veteran receiver Brandin Cooks, who the Bills signed Tuesday after his Nov. 19 release that ended his second stint with the New Orleans Saints. The Bills are Cooks’ seventh stop since the Saints made him a first-round pick in 2014. He should provide more speed than they’ve had at receiver, which isn’t saying a lot.
“I think bringing a guy like him (provides) a veteran presence for our room,” Allen said. “He’s already basically learned our playbook. He’s an extremely high football IQ guy. He’s been around the league a long time, the way that he carries himself, the way that he is in meetings. Already, it’s very apparent that he’s a true professional. To come out here and practice the way that he did speaks a lot about who he is as a person, as a player, and we appreciate him coming here and hopefully helping us out.”
“Going against him a number of times, always respected his game,” McDermott said. “He has good speed, knows how to play the position. Some guys have good speed, but they’re not true wide receivers and football players. He’s a combination of both.”
The Bills also elevated Gabe Davis from the practice squad to the active roster and placed Curtis Samuel on injured reserve.
More than anything, the Bills simply must play better and smarter than they’ve shown at various points of the season, including in victories. The Houston game was particularly ugly, with three turnovers and other offensive struggles.
“I think you have to learn from what happened and try to correct some of those mistakes,” Allen said. “At the same time, I don’t feel like you need to abandon everything that’s gotten you to this point. Coach (Craig) Bohl (Allen’s former coach at the University of Wyoming) had a saying that, ‘You dance with who brung you.’
“So, again, just understanding who we are as an offense and the identity that we have, relying on some of the stuff that maybe even in training camp that we were really good at, and getting back to some of those things. And just going out there and just trying to play as free as possible.”
4. The Bills need more of Efficient Josh than Superman Josh.
It’s fair to say Allen tends to be at his best when he plays freely and is more focused on making plays than taking care of the football. This might not be one of those times.
The Steelers are far from great. They’ve lost four of their last six games. Their defense has allowed more than 30 points in five games this season, so despite the losses of their starting offensive tackles, the Bills should be able to put up a decent number of points.
What the Steelers can do, however, is control the tempo of the game. They’ll do it by running the ball effectively, something Bills opponents do with regularity. Aaron Rodgers is long past the days of putting a team on his back, yet he, too, can help the Steelers control the tempo by avoiding turnovers.
Allen should not play with fear of turning the ball over. But it would behoove the Bills, particularly with the Steelers likely to unleash a strong pass rush, to run as many traps and delays with James Cook. Pounding the ball on the ground should be a significant part of Joe Brady’s game plan.
Asked about the Bills doubling their turnover percentage from last season, Allen said, “I think you could chalk it down to a couple dumb decisions, a couple good plays on them, a couple bad plays on our part. And I think most of them have been in a one-dimensional-type situation where they know we’re throwing and they’re able to kind of pin their ears back. And obviously that starts early in the game where the goal is to get up early and being able to stay two-dimensional and keep them on their heels. But we got to be better in those situations. And again, that’s directly pointing myself.”
5. The Bills must make Aaron Rodgers’ life in the pocket every bit as miserable as Josh Allen’s was against Houston.
Rodgers is old and slow. There’s simply no excuse for the Bills to be unable to affect him with a strong and steady pass rush.
It’s well past the time that the Bills get a consistently impactful pass rush from Greg Rousseau, Joey Bosa and A.J. Epenesa. The Steelers will try to make that tougher by running the ball, but if the Bills can get an early lead and make the Steelers one-dimensional, Rodgers should be spending much of the game on the run.