The Houston Texans are currently 6-5 and sit as the 8th seed in the AFC, on the outside looking in of the playoff picture.
They trail the 8-3 Colts and 7-4 Jaguars in the division race but have been heating up as of late, winning three straight games despite playing without starting quarterback C.J. Stroud during that stretch.
Stroud is set to return this week after missing the last three weeks due to a concussion. While the team has been winning without him, his return rounds out a roster that nobody in the league should want to face right now.
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Head coach DeMeco Ryans has this defense playing like the best unit in the league. It starts up front with the best edge-rushing duo in football, Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter, who have posted 10.5 and 11 sacks, respectively.
The secondary is a physical, ball-hawking group featuring Derek Stingley, Kamari Lassiter, Jalen Pitre, and Calen Bullock.
With offensive production improving and consistent defensive performances every week, the Texans are heating up at just the right time.
A closer look at their results this season shows just how close the Texans have been. They are only a few plays away from having a very different record, as all of their losses have come in one-score games against playoff teams.
A Ferocious Defense
Diving into the Texans’ defense, the chemistry between the pass rush and the secondary is incredible and truly unique. The Texans primarily operate out of a 4-2-5 nickel defense, frequently utilizing an extra defensive back and leaning heavily into zone coverage as their core identity. According to Sumer Sports, they play zone on 76.44% of pass plays.
When the pass rush does not win, which is rare, the secondary holds up long enough to buy time for the defensive line to reach the quarterback. When coverage is occasionally beaten, pressure arrives fast enough to limit damage.
This defense has the rare ability to shut down even the best units and quarterbacks in the league, with Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills being the most recent example in primetime last week.
The Texans lead the league in points allowed per game (16.5) and yards allowed per game (264.3). They are also 1st in EPA per play (-0.124) and 1st in dropback EPA (-0.127). The defense has collected 12 interceptions, ranking top three in the league, along with 33 sacks.
Defense wins championships, and the Texans have the unit to match that standard as long as the offense can remain at least average.
An Improving Offense
Offensively, under Nick Caley, the Texans have relied mostly on 11 personnel (67.52%, 474 plays) per Sumer Sports, featuring receivers Nico Collins, Jayden Higgins, and Christian Kirk, along with Dalton Schultz at tight end.
The offense currently sits 24th in EPA per play, but with Stroud returning and the growth of the rookie class, there is real optimism that the offense can improve enough to push this team into the postseason and generate noise once they get there.
Rookies have already made major contributions to this team.
Fourth-round running back Woody Marks has impacted all phases of the offense as both a runner and pass catcher, while standing out as a pass protector during his transition from college to the NFL. He has been especially strong on third downs, stonewalling edge rushers on stunts and keeping Stroud and Davis Mills upright, giving them time to work through their reads.
Second-round pick Jayden Higgins has settled into his role nicely as a complementary weapon. He can operate on the outside or as a big slot, allowing Collins to stay wide while adding flexibility to the overall passing scheme. Having two long receivers on opposite sides is unique and beneficial for this offense to continue to improve weekly.
Rookie left tackle Aireontae Ersery was thrown into the fire early, but he has steadily adjusted and improved as he continues to gain experience and stack reps.
Rookies aside, the best player on the Texans’ offense, and arguably the entire roster, remains Nico Collins, and continuing to feature him is critical moving forward. He needs to be the focal point. We have already seen the type of impact he can make when consistently featured, and the Texans must emphasize getting him involved early and continuing to build around him throughout the game plan.
The Future Outlook in 2025
However, fully diving into the roster, the Texans are not favorites to win the division or the conference for a reason. The offensive line remains a known weakness, and both opponents and the Texans themselves understand that reality.
That said, there is reason to wonder if the Texans’ offense can improve even slightly to give their defense a greater opportunity to shine.
The biggest area for improvement is the run game, where they currently sit 25th in rushing EPA (-0.036). If teams are forced to respect Nick Chubb and Marks early and the Texans can establish the run, it would open up more opportunities for the talented pass catchers in their offense.
If the offense can stack drives, maximize the talent of its pass catchers, get the ball out quickly, and keep Stroud upright in the pocket, he will find openings when given time.
This defense is special enough to anchor a legitimate playoff run, and one thing is clear: no team is eager to see the feisty, DeMeco Ryans-led Texans on its postseason schedule.