Next week’s ACC championship game won’t include the league’s best team. It will instead feature a doomsday scenario that could leave the power conference out of the College Football Playoff entirely.

First, the matchup: No. 18 Virginia vs. unranked Duke. The Cavaliers (10-2, 7-1 ACC) easily earned their spot with Saturday night’s 27-7 triumph over Virginia Tech. J’Mari Taylor rushed for a touchdown and threw for another in the first half, and the defense forced seven three-and-outs and snagged two interceptions in the Hokies’ first 10 drives to put the Cavaliers in the conference title game for the first time since 2019.

“This is what we came here for,” Cavaliers head coach Tony Elliott said on the ESPN broadcast. “Just super proud of the staff, super proud of the players, but we have four more quarters.”

Those four quarters are, surprisingly, against Duke, which ended up atop a log jam of five other teams with two conference losses (joining Miami, Pitt, SMU, Georgia Tech) … even though the Blue Devils were the only one unranked by the CFP selection committee.

Duke’s first appearance in the ACC championship since 2013 opens the door for a disastrous scenario for the conference. The CFP’s protocol does not guarantee a bid to every Power 4 conference. Rather, it reserves a spot for the five top conference champions, regardless of their league. Duke’s resume includes defeats against UConn, Illinois and Tulane. If the Blue Devils beat Virginia, the CFP selection committee could snub the ACC’s champion in favor of whoever wins the American Conference (Tulane or North Texas) and James Madison (11-1 entering next week’s Sun Belt championship) for the fourth and fifth automatic bids. The Mountain West’s champion (San Diego State, New Mexico, Boise State or UNLV) could also have a case.

The Athletic’s Playoff projection model gives Duke a 47 percent chance of winning the ACC title game, but just a 7 percent chance of making the Playoff — while James Madison has a 47 percent chance.

No. 12 Miami is regarded as the ACC’s top team, but losses to SMU and Louisville put the Hurricanes in a complicated web of tiebreakers despite Saturday’s 38-7 triumph at No. 22 Pitt.

The No. 21 Mustangs (8-4, 6-2) were in the best position to join Virginia in Charlotte, N.C., next week. All they had to do was beat a 6-5 Cal team led by interim coach Nick Rolovich to play for the ACC title for a second consecutive year.

They could not. SMU lost a wild game 38-35 on the road despite making a furious comeback. The Mustangs trailed by 17 early in the fourth quarter but scored touchdowns on four consecutive drives to take the lead with 2:22 to go. Cal’s standout freshman quarterback, Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, led the Golden Bears on a 75-yard drive, and Kendrick Raphael twisted out of a would-be tackle and past the goal line for the winning score with 43 seconds remaining. SMU missed a 52-yard field goal in the closing seconds, sealing the loss.

CAL COMPLETES THE UPSET OVER SMU‼️ pic.twitter.com/8r9VenWZ2o

— ACC Network (@accnetwork) November 30, 2025

The Mustangs’ defeat gave the final spot to Duke, which did its part Saturday afternoon with a 49-32 win over Wake Forest. The Blue Devils (7-5, 6-2) recovered three fumbles, and quarterback Darian Mensah threw for two touchdowns to pass Maalik Murphy for the Blue Devils’ single-season record (28). Mensah also rushed for a touchdown.

Regardless of who wins the ACC, Miami would still have a shot at making the field as an at-large team. That bubble is crowded, too, however, as the Hurricanes compete against the likes of Notre Dame (which Miami beat), Alabama, BYU and Texas.