The Denver Broncos (9-2) and the Washington Commanders (3-8) meet Sunday in Week 13 at Northwest Stadium in Landover, Maryland. Kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC / Peacock). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NFL odds around the Broncos vs. Commanders odds and make our expert NFL picks and predictions for the best bets.

The Broncos come out of their bye week with a 9-game winning streak. They upset the Kansas City Chiefs 22-19 Nov. 16 as 4.5-point home underdogs as the Under (45) hit. Denver did have 10 penalties for 147 yards and had trouble finishing drives, but PK Will Lutz delivered by going 5-for-5 on field goals. The team’s lone touchdown came on a 4-yard run by RB Jaleel McLaughlin.

Washington returns from a needed bye after dropping 6 straight games. Their most recent loss was Nov. 16 in Madrid, Spain, losing 16-13 in overtime to the Miami Dolphins. WR Deebo Samuel caught 7 passes for 74 yards and a TD. QB Marcus Mariota again started in place of the injured Jayden Daniels and threw for 213 yards and a score. His interception on the first play of overtime set up Miami with a short field that turned into the game-winning field goal.

The teams last played in 2023, a 35-33 Washington win in Denver. The all-time series is tied 8-8.

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Broncos at Commanders odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:38 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Broncos -300 (bet $300 to win $100) | Commanders +240 (bet $100 to win $240)Against the spread (ATS): Broncos -6.5 (-110) | Commanders +6.5 (-110)Over/Under (O/U): 43.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)Broncos at Commanders key injuries

Broncos

TE Nate Adkins (knee) outLB Jonah Elliss (hamstring) questionable

Commanders

WR Noah Brown (groin/knee/NIR-rest) outQB Jayden Daniels (left elbow) outS Will Harris (ankle) questionableDE Drake Jackson (knee/groin) outLS Tyler Ott (illness/back) questionableBroncos at Commanders picks and predictionsPrediction

Broncos 27, Commanders 13

PASS.

I do not see a scenario where the Commanders win this game Sunday night. I’ve got the Broncos winning going away, which is why I’ll take my bet to the spread.

BET DENVER -6.5 (-110).

The Broncos leads the AFC West at 9-2, are coming off a bye, and have been playing their best football of the season heading into Sunday night. Meanwhile, Washington is without Daniels and hasn’t shown much life during this 6-game skid. This matchup sets up really well for Denver.

For starters, the Commanders have been awful in prime-time games for years — 26-50 since 2000, and 0-4 this season. Add in the fact they’ve failed to cover in 6 straight, and it’s tough to make a case for them. Denver, on the other hand, has covered in 3 of the last 4 and keeps finding ways to control games with its defense.

And that defense is the real reason I’m backing Denver. They lead the league in sacks (49), allow the fewest passing TDs (9), and just got CB Pat Surtain II cleared to play. Washington’s defense is the opposite: Bottom 5 in points allowed, yards allowed and turnovers forced. They’ve given up an average of 34 points over their last 5 games. Denver hasn’t allowed 34 in any game all year.

With Mariota starting again and Washington’s defense still leaking, I just don’t see the Commanders keeping pace. Denver’s offense isn’t explosive, but they won’t need to be — not in this spot, not against this team and not off a bye.

BET UNDER 43.5 (-110).

Denver’s style lately has been the same every week — low scoring, heavy defense, and just enough offense to get by. They’ve gone under in 3 straight and put up only 50 total points in that stretch, and I don’t see their offense suddenly erupting here.

Washington’s defense has been giving up points, but that was against the Seattle Seahawks and Detroit Lions — Denver isn’t that kind of offense. It feels like another slow, physical game — so I’m sticking with the Under.

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