The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Jacksonville Jaguars players heading into their matchup with the Tennessee Titans to help you craft a winning lineup.
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Trevor Lawrence, QB
I feel like the Trevor Lawrence profile at this point isn’t much different than that of Cam Ward. “Some nice plays that are encouraging but struggling to put together 60 consecutive good minutes” has basically been my stance on both all season and while it’s viewed as a positive (or, at least acceptable) for a rookie, that being the story for Lawrence in Year #5 is disappointing.
Last week in the OT win against the Cardinals, he had some nice highlights. He showed plus-athleticism with 29 rushing yards and hit Jakobi Meyers on a high-level pass off his back leg for a score in the third quarter.
But … three interceptions, a sub-64% completion rate for a third straight game, and a lack of downfield upside.
It’s one step forward and two back with him, and that’s a problem for a franchise chasing a playoff berth, never mind your fantasy team. For us, the fact that he is averaging his fewest YPA on deep passes is an issue, and one game over 271 passing yards (zero in the USA) is prohibitive.
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This is a matchup that should excite me, but the Jags rank eighth in rush rate this season when favored, and I don’t expect them to put the ball in the hands of Lawrence enough to allow him to produce top 15 fantasy numbers.
Bhayshul Tuten, RB
Bhayshul Tuten looked the part in Week 11 against the Chargers (15 carries for 74 yards and a touchdown), sparking conversations about whether he could be part of this rookie class that is improving with time and set to make a splash during the fantasy playoffs.
Not likely.
Travis Etienne Jr. has scored 15+ fantasy points in all four games since the bye and really hasn’t given the team a reason to pivot.
So they aren’t, not with a playoff berth still very much on the table.
Tuten was on the field for just 21.3% of Jacksonville’s offensive snaps in the win over the Cardinals last week and was out-snapped 8-2 in the first quarter by Etienne (LeQuint Allen also played two snaps in the first 15 minutes).
This is an offense with question marks and flaws, but neither applies to their backfield: this is the Etienne show, and Tuten is nothing more than a handcuff that can be cut if you’re backed into a corner and need immediate help.
Travis Etienne Jr., RB
A 15-yard touchdown reception by Etienne in the first quarter last week helped quiet the whispers about a split backfield, and he finished the week with 116 all-purpose yards in one of his better performances of the season.
The Jags are in the thick of the playoff race, and with the game scripted to tilt in their favor this week, we should feel good about banking on another 16-18 carries and 2-4 targets from their RB1.
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Etienne has eight top-20 finishes at the position this season, a status that he has held for each of the past four weeks. Draft picks like Jahmy Gibbs and Jaxon Smith-Njigba get highlighted because of the cartoonish numbers they put up, but hitting on a mid-round selection at the level that you have with Etienne is also a critical component to winning your league.
Hat tip to you for the selection: you should be sitting pretty over the next few weeks (before Jacksonville has to travel to Denver in Week 16).
Brian Thomas Jr., WR
An ankle injury has kept Brian Thomas Jr. sidelined since he was banged up late in Week 9’s win in Vegas, and at this point, is it possible that his sitting out is saving you from yourself?
I know that’s the case for me.
He’s averaging 6.01 fewer PPR PPG this season than last, and he’s just never looked comfortable. As a rookie, he produced 22.3% above expectations, but this season, he sits at 15.8% below expectations.
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The aDOT is up a touch and the slot rate down a little, but not nearly enough to explain away this dismal season. With a 50% catch rate when healthy, I think it’s plenty reasonable to want to see proof of concept before assuming that he’ll return from a near-monthly layoff with the magic production potion in hand.
The only thing concerning about this matchup is that the Jags could elect to run the ball at a high rate, and the last thing an inefficient receiver needs is a lack of work. If you’re in a position where you have to swing for the fences and we get word that Thomas will play, you can go this route and hope, but you have to understand that you’re betting against everything we’ve seen up to this point in 2025.
Jakobi Meyers, WR
Everything is moving in the right direction for Meyers since coming over from Vegas. Against a bottom-seven pass defense in passer rating, completion percentage, yards per pass, yards per completion, and interception rate, we are firmly in the flex zone.
Week 10 (Game 1 with JAX): 41.8% snaps, 4.7 expected PPR points
Week 11 (Game 2 with JAX): 63.8% snaps, 9.7 expected PPR points
Week 12 (Game 3 with JAX): 83.6% snaps, 11.2 expected PPR points
After seeing two end zone targets last weekend in Arizona and playing for a favorite, Meyers is easily a top 40 PPR option with top 25 production within the range of expectations. I’ve got him ranked in the Khalil Shakir and Jauan Jennings tier of flex, a level that I’m comfortable with in most situations.
Parker Washington, WR
As Meyers’ usage ramps up and Brenton Strange’s health improves, Parker Washington’s profile is thin, but he overcame all of it last week in Arizona (5-71-1), the third time in four weeks where he’s returned top 17 numbers at the position.
I’m not a doctor, but the hamstring injury didn’t seem to be an issue, and Lawrence looks very comfortable going this direction. I’m skeptical of the long-term outlook here and think the bottom could fall out sooner rather than later. Still, if you’re in a bind this week or next (four teams are on a bye in Week 14 with the Jags hosting the Colts), I think he’s better than risk-reward plays like Luther Burden, Rashid Shaheed, or Chimere Dike in this same game.
Brenton Strange, TE
After missing a month and a half with a hip injury, I was impressed with what Strange brought to the table in the win over the Cardinals on Sunday.
Not only did he catch five balls (his third straight healthy game with at least that many receptions), but he also led the team with 93 receiving yards and was on the field for 72.1% of their offensive snaps (25 routes run, third on the team behind only Meyers and Parker Washington).
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Let’s not get too excited; this is still a limited offense, but the Jags are in the playoff mix, whether you want to admit it or not, and they need consistent chain movers to supplement a lack of explosive plays.
Strange isn’t a threat to win you your week, but in a plus-matchup like this, where we expect Jacksonville to score in the mid-20s, I like Strange as a top-15 option at the position that can help you effectively tread water.