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I spoke a bit too soon last week.
Between an injury to Tee Higgins and a called-back Travis Kelce touchdown, it was a nightmare at the office for player props.
Injuries and some poor luck certainly contributed to the -6 unit betting day, which obviously takes away a big chunk of our season profits.
That’s simply life in the gambling space.
We’re still profiting 3.57 units this year despite the poor results last week.
Week 13 player props: picks and predictions
Jaylen Warren over 60.5 rushing yards (-110, BetMGM) | 120+ (+1320, DraftKings)
The Buffalo Bills have had an obscene amount of injuries pile up on them this season, and Sunday could be where things hit a tipping point for Sean McDermott’s group.
Since Ed Oliver was lost for the season, the Bills’ run defense has been a disaster. Buffalo has allowed 5.25 yards per carry to opposing running backs, the second-worst figure in the NFL.
I don’t see things getting any better this week. Yes, the Bills are favored, but this is also partially a bet on the Steelers to win outright anyway.
This is where the value of Warren’s prop comes in; the Bills are allowing 118.36 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs this year.
Warren has gone over this total of 60.5 in three straight games, including five of his last six.
In that time, he’s cleared 120 rushing yards once, giving us a decent chance at hitting the long shot side of this at 13/1, given the plus matchup against the Bills’ leaky run defense.
Betting on the NFL?
RJ Harvey over 12.5 rush attempts (-115, bet365) | 18+ (+446, DraftKings)
I often prefer to bet on rushing attempts and passing attempts because it’s easier to project workload than actual performance
With an injury befalling J.K. Dobbins a few weeks ago, it behooves us to target the new running back in Denver, one I believe to be an efficient player in RJ Harvey.
The Action Labs model projects Harvey will get 14.3 carries, indicating there’s value here.
The Commanders have many faults; their defense has been mostly terrible, and this is expected to be a positive game script.
RJ Harvey has a big chance to make his mark in Denver. Getty Images
This may be a bit of a flukey stat but it definitely shows that they’ve been in negative game scripts this year: The Bears have allowed 24.64 rushing attempts to opposing running backs this year. That is the fourth most in the NFL behind only the Vikings, Saints and Bengals.
Harvey has only hit this number once in 2025, but the injury has completely changed his workload outlook and I’m all in on the rookie to get more work on Sunday.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.