Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 13’s game between the Washington Commanders and the Denver Broncos on Sunday Night Football.

Landover on a cold Sunday night feels like the perfect lie detector. Denver walks in at 9-2, carrying a record that looks like a contender and an offense that mostly does just enough. Washington staggers in at 3-8 with six straight losses, a locker room full of talent, and a defense that keeps throwing gasoline on every game. This is not really a clash of equals so much as a question: is Denver’s surge real or mostly schedule and timing. The weather should turn this into a hitting contest, not a track meet, which only makes the gaps in toughness and structure louder. Below is my prediction for NFL Week 13’s game between the Washington Commanders and the Denver Broncos on Sunday Night Football.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

The numbers say Denver is not a juggernaut, but this matchup still bends toward them. Washington actually owns the better offensive efficiency, sitting around +0.028 EPA per play with a 46.8% success rate, while Denver is closer to +0.021 and 41.3%. The Commanders are more efficient in both phases, posting +0.029 passing EPA and +0.026 rushing EPA against Denver’s +0.042 through the air and a slightly negative -0.007 on the ground. The entire gap comes on the other side of the ball, where Denver’s defense allows only 274.4 yards per game and roughly -0.098 EPA per snap with a 63.1% success rate against, truly elite stuff. Washington’s defense has collapsed to 387.0 yards allowed, 137.5 on the ground, and +0.129 EPA per play, one of the worst profiles in the league. That creates a record-versus-performance paradox: Denver’s offense is just OK, but their defense is exactly the kind of unit that punishes a bad defense and a decent offense stuck in bad scripts.

The dog case is not imaginary, and it lives in those offensive splits. Washington moves it almost as well as Denver by raw yardage, sitting at 330.2 yards per game to Denver’s 335.3, but does it with more completion efficiency and better rushing returns at 4.9 yards per carry. Marcus Mariota’s 7.6 yards per attempt and mid-60s completion rate in your sample outstrip Bo Nix’s 6.3 yards per attempt, and Deebo Samuel plus Zach Ertz plus a returning Terry McLaurin give Washington a trio that can win underneath and in the red zone. Recent efficiency says this is not 3-8 because the offense cannot function; it is 3-8 because the defense keeps giving up explosives. Add the market context, where Denver flipped from +2.5 to -6.5, and it is easy to hear “fool’s gold” in every barstool argument. Washington’s offense plus that many points against a team living on one-score wins will tempt plenty of people.

Broncos vs. Commanders pick, best bet

I still land on Denver because their strengths hit Washington’s weaknesses in a way that should survive some regression. Denver is allowing only 88.5 rushing yards per game, and that run defense is exactly what you want against a Commanders offense that needs Jacory Croskey-Merritt and Chris Rodriguez to carry their positive rushing EPA identity. Take away the 4.9 yards per carry and Washington is left asking Mariota to drop back into a pass rush that already has 49 sacks. On the other side, Washington’s defense is giving up 264.4 passing yards and 137.5 rushing yards per game, with only 25 sacks and five interceptions to offset it. You do not have to believe in Denver as a top-tier offense to believe they can get to the mid-20s here through field position, explosives to Courtland Sutton and Pat Bryant, and short fields created by defensive havoc. Sean Payton with a defense like this against a unit allowing about 34.0 points per game in its last five is the cleaner side, even if the offense has been more functional than frightening.

The recent trajectories reinforce that rather than fight it. Denver’s last five include wins over the Giants, Cowboys, Texans, Raiders and Chiefs, averaging roughly 25.0 points scored and 19.0 allowed, a healthy +6.0 margin that already sits above this number. Washington’s last five tell the opposite story, around 16.0 scored and 34.0 allowed, with home blowouts to Detroit and Seattle and road beatdowns from Dallas and Kansas City. The line now sits at -6.5 because the market already corrected from preseason skepticism, but the actual results still describe a team winning by one score or more against a team getting blasted when it steps up. Cold Sunday night weather and a total sliding from 46.5 into the low 40s fit the same script: fewer drives, more field position, and extra value on the team that tackles, rushes the passer and finishes drives better.

I expect Denver’s defense to be the adult in the room. Washington will test the edges early with tight-end-heavy looks, but Denver’s front should squeeze the run and push Mariota into second-and-long against 2-4-5 nickel pressure. On offense, Nix does not need to light up the box score; he needs to avoid the one or two mistakes that turn this into a scramble, hit Sutton and Evan Engram off play action, and let a balanced run game bleed clock against a front that has not stopped anybody for a month. Over four quarters, that blend of steady efficiency and defensive dominance should win out more often than the fool’s gold storyline.

Broncos 24, Commanders 16, and I’m comfortable laying -6.5 with Denver in a game where their defense and Washington’s defensive collapse still feel underpriced.

Best bet: Broncos -6.5 (-110) at Commanders

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For a prop lean, we’re hitting Jaleel McLaughlin 25+ rushing yards for -115. With J.K. Dobbins out, Denver’s 42.9% run rate (about 26.5 carries on 61.8 plays) has to funnel through McLaughlin and RJ Harvey, and McLaughlin’s 4.4 yards per carry walks straight into a Washington front allowing 137.5 rushing yards per game at 4.9 per carry. This is exactly the kind of game where Sean Payton can hide Bo Nix a bit, lean on an elite defense, and keep hammering the softest part of a unit that has been giving up around 34.0 points per game over its last five. Our script already has Denver playing from in front and Washington’s offense struggling to keep up, which is the environment where 8 to 10 carries into light boxes and nickel fronts can turn into 30-plus yards quietly; at -115, I’d rather bet on that efficiency clearing 25 than sweat a Mariota passing prop into Denver’s pass rush.

Best prop lean: Jaleel McLaughlin 25+ rushing yards (-115)

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