GREEN BAY, Wis. – For the Green Bay Packers, nothing changed and everything changed this week.
From the nothing-changed perspective, the Packers remain in sixth place in the NFC playoff race. They are a half-game behind the Chicago Bears in the NFC North race, a half-game behind the Seattle Seahawks to be the top wild card and a half-game ahead of San Francisco to avoid the last wild card.
Here are the latest NFC standings with only the primetime games remaining in Week 13.
NFC Playoff Standings
1. Chicago Bears (first place, NFC North): 9-3
2. Los Angeles Rams (first place, NFC West): 9-3
3. Philadelphia Eagles (first place, NFC East): 8-4
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (first place, NFC South): 7-5
5. Seattle Seahawks (second place, NFC West): 9-3
6. Green Bay Packers (second place, NFC North): 8-3-1
7. San Francisco 49ers (third place, NFC West): 9-4
– – –
8. Detroit Lions (third place, NFC North): 7-5
9. Dallas Cowboys (second place, NFC East): 6-5-1
10. Carolina Panthers (second place, NFC South): 7-6
11. Atlanta Falcons (third place, NFC South): 4-8
12. Minnesota Vikings (fourth place, NFC North): 4-8
13. Washington Commanders (third place, NFC East): 3-8 (hosting Denver on Sunday night)
14. Arizona Cardinals (fourth place, NFC West): 3-9
15. New Orleans Saints (fourth place, NFC South): 2-10
16. New York Giants (fourth place, NFC East): 2-10 (at New England on Monday night)
Big Changes in NFC
There were three big outcomes in the NFC this week.
First, the Packers beat the Lions on Thursday. There’s now a bit of a gap between the seven projected playoff teams and everyone else. The Lions are in eighth place in the NFC and a game-and-a-half behind Green Bay. So, finally, there’s a bit of breathing room for the Packers.
The win was “very big,” quarterback Jordan Love said. “Obviously, we knew what was at stake with this game and, obviously, with every division game we have.
Green Bay Packers receiver Dontayvion Wicks (13) makes a catch against Detroit Lions safety Brian Branch. | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
“In the NFC North, it’s a tight race. There’s a lot of good football teams in our division. So, we got to come out here and handle business every time we get those opps. And, obviously, we know this three-game stretch we’ve had with the Vikings, now the Lions, and then going with the Bears next week, we got to come in and win these games and try to control your own destiny by winning out.”
Second, the Panthers, who shocked the Packers at Lambeau Field in Week 9, stunned the Rams 31-28 on Sunday. The Rams had won six in a row to move into the driver’s seat to earn homefield advantage in the NFC.
With that, the Bears, who had lost double-digits games each of the last four seasons, are the new top dog in the NFC. If the Packers beat the Bears, they’d still trail the Rams by a half-game (assuming the Rams rebound against the Cardinals).
Los Angeles will host Detroit in Week 15 and play at Seattle in Week 16, so the door is open for the Packers to earn homefield
Third, the Bears beat the Eagles on Friday. The Packers now have a better record than Philadelphia, which won at Lambeau in Week 10.
If the Season Were to End Today …
There’s a new potential playoff opponent for the Packers, though it’s hardly a new opponent.
With the Packers remaining sixth in the NFC and the Eagles falling to third after getting crunched by the Bears, it would be Green Bay at Philadelphia in the wild-card round.
Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love (10) passes the ball against the Philadelphia Eagles. | Tork Mason/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
The Eagles have won four in a row in the series, including 22-10 in the wild-card round last season and 10-7 on Nov. 10.
“I think every game is a new challenge and I just never want to feel like, ‘OK, here we are, we’ve got it figured out,’” coach Matt LaFleur said after beating the Lions.
“Because you’ve got to put the work in. There’s a lot of talented defenses in this league and there’s a lot of challenges. There’s a lot of smart coaches that are going to scheme up stuff against you, so we’re going to continue to just try to get a little bit better each and every day — the same mindset that we’ve always had. That’s the only I know how to approach it.”
Strength of Schedule
The Packers have an obvious path to winning the NFC North but it won’t be easy. That’s because, according to Tankathon, the Packers have the toughest remaining schedule among the NFC teams.
Subject to minor change based on the primetime results, the slumping Colts have the toughest remaining schedule in the NFL with their final five opponents having a combined .667 winning percentage.
The Packers are next at .627, with games left against the Bears (9-3), Broncos (9-2), Bears again, Ravens (6-6) and Vikings (4-8). The Seahawks have the third-toughest remaining schedule (.597; only the Falcons with a losing record), followed by the Ravens, the Bears (.590; only the Browns with a losing record), the Lions (.585; only the Vikings with a losing record) and the 49ers (.562; only the Titans with a losing record).
“It was huge to have a sweep against the Lions and put ourselves in position to potentially get that top spot in the NFC North back,” receiver Christian Watson said.
Packers Playoff Chances
According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, the Packers have a 92.0 percent chance of qualifying for the playoffs. That was a big jump from 80.0 percent from last week.
The Packers made a big move in the NFC North race, as well, going from 44.8 percent last week to 57.5 percent. The Bears went from 23.5 percent to 35.0 percent ad the Lions crashed from 31.6 percent to 5.5 percent.
According to The Athletic’s Playoff Simulator, Green Bay’s playoff probability based on 100,000 simulations is 93 percent. That’s up from 83 percent last week. Its NFC North chances improved from 48 percent to 52 percent. The Packers have a 14 percent chance of earning homefield.
A victory over Chicago next week won’t have an enormous impact, perhaps because the teams will play again a couple weeks later. Based on 8,000 simulations, a victory over the Bears would move the Packers to 97 percent to reach the playoffs, 58 percent to win the division and 17 percent to earn the No. 1 seed.
A loss, on the other hand, would cut Green Bay to 81 percent to qualify for the playoffs, 28 percent to win the division and 2 percent to earn the No. 1 seed.
According to Next Gen Stats, the Packers moved from a 76 percent chance to make the playoffs to 88 percent by beating the Lions, who went from 76 percent to 44 percent. The Bears jumped from 61 percent to 76 percent.
According to Playoff Status, Green Bay’s playoff chances shot up from 63 percent to 82 percent. To win the North, the Bears are 62 percent (up from 47 percent) and the Packers are 34 percent (up from 31 percent).
At FanDuel Sportsbook, the Packers’ playoff odds made a big shift, going from -350 to -900. By implied probability, the Packers went from 79.0 percent to 90.0 percent.
There also was a big change in the NFC North odds at FanDuel. Last week, Green Bay was +130, Detroit was +170 and Chicago was +260. Now, Green Bay is -130, Chicago is +140 and Detroit plunged to +1000.
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