Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 13’s game between the New England Patriots and the New York Giants on Monday Night Football.

Gillette gets two different kinds of urgency under the lights. New England is chasing seeding and legacy, trying to stack wins into a No. 1 seed case. The Giants show up with careers on the line instead of playoff odds, playing for tape, contracts and pride. A coordinator has already been fired, responsibilities shuffled, and everyone in blue knows the standings stopped mattering weeks ago. Still, Jaxson Dart returns from his concussion and is ready to match that Jameis Winston energy in a dogfight. That looseness meets a favorite dealing with offensive inconsistency and offensive line injuries, and the gap between better team and easy cover starts to shrink. Below is my prediction for NFL Week 13’s game between the New England Patriots and the New York Giants on Monday Night Football.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

The records scream mismatch, but the snaps and quarterbacks tell a much tighter story. Over the last five games, New England is perfect on the scoreboard yet only slightly positive in offensive EPA per play at 0.068 with a 43.5% success rate, riding Drake Maye’s MVP push more than weekly dominance – 3,130 passing yards, 21 touchdowns and 71% completions through Week 12. The Giants are winless in that same window yet sit at 0.106 EPA per play and 42.3% success, with 365.2 yards per game to New England’s 383.2, powered by Jaxson Dart’s dual-threat rookie season: 1,417 passing yards, 10 touchdowns, three interceptions & 317 rushing yards and seven rushing scores across nine games.That is not dominant favorite versus dead offense; it is a Vrabel defense facing a quietly efficient attack that keeps moving the ball.

Season-long, the Patriots still own the cleaner offensive profile, sitting at 0.087 EPA per play with 44.4% success and 359.9 yards a game. The Giants hang close at 348.5 yards per game but drop to 0.011 EPA and 41.3% success, dragged down by early-season ugliness and red-zone waste before Dart settled in as the starter. Both teams struggle badly to finish drives, with red-zone touchdown rates under 20%, and field goals combined with empty trips usually belong to the underdog when you are catching more than a touchdown.

Where New England really separates is on defense and against the run. Over the last five, the Patriots have allowed 284.8 yards per game and -0.077 EPA per play, with three games landing in strong negative territory, and season-long they give up only 301.2 yards, 226.8 through the air and 87.7 on the ground while holding opponents to 35.6% on third down. The Giants defense is the mirror image: 385.0 yards allowed, including a brutal 157.2 rushing and 0.111 defensive EPA, which is exactly why TreVeyon Henderson’s recent stretch—four straight double-digit fantasy games on lead-back usage—matters so much here. On the other side, Kafka’s offense leans on Dart’s legs and quick game to keep Wan’Dale Robinson’s target share heavy, Theo Johnson involved on seams and Tyrone Tracy active as a receiver, trying to chase explosives against a group Vrabel has built around disciplined zones and rally tackling.

That is the clean Patriots case: Henderson running downhill at the league’s softest run front, Maye living in manageable down and distance, and a well-drilled defense squeezing one big mistake out of a young quarterback. But the recent form still points toward grind rather than runaway, with three of New England’s last five wins coming by five points or fewer and several offensive EPA lines hovering just above zero. They have needed structure and situational execution to escape, not weekly offensive fireworks, which is why a live Giants offense and +7.5 stays firmly in play.

Giants vs. Patriots pick, best bet

The Giants carry a five-game losing streak, but their offense keeps putting out live tape. They have cleared 246 yards in every one of those games, topped 430 yards twice, and posted at least 0.088 EPA per play in four of the five. Jaxson Dart’s return is the hinge: across nine starts he has thrown for about 1,400 yards and ten touchdowns with only three interceptions, plus more than 300 rushing yards and seven rushing scores. Wan’Dale Robinson has seen at least nine targets in five of his past six appearances, living in that quick-game window where Dart’s timing holds up against pressure. Theo Johnson has logged three or more catches in eight of nine games and just went for 70-plus yards on a 70% route share, giving Dart a real middle-of-the-field outlet. Tyrone Tracy has stacked back-to-back feature workloads with around twenty carries and multiple catches, exactly the profile that stresses linebackers in space. That skill group has enough answers to keep New England’s defense working snap to snap. If Charlie Bullen leans into heavier pressure and pushes that 38.1% pressure rate even higher, a Patriots line missing Will Campbell and managing bumps inside will feel it. Pressure will hit both quarterbacks, but every sack, holding call and drive-killing negative play nudges this toward another one-score finish.

The number is still the tell. Patriots -7.5 with a total of 46.5 prices a clean, comfortable margin for a team winning with defense, situational edges and Mike Vrabel’s game management more than weekly offensive explosions. When I stack the recent EPA splits, the third-down numbers, the shared red-zone problems and the way New York keeps losing by seven or fewer, this profiles closer to Patriots -5 than a full seven and the hook. New England is the more complete roster and should win this more often than not. That does not mean they are built to slam the door on every opponent by eight or more, especially with both lines allowing pressure on more than 43% of dropbacks. I expect TreVeyon Henderson and Drake Maye to do enough against a soft run front and leaky secondary, but the Giants offense has earned more respect than a throwaway 0–5 stretch suggests.

I want the points in a matchup that looks like another late-possession sweat: Patriots 27, Giants 23, win streak intact, Giants +7.5 the side worth stamping.

Best bet: Giants +7.5 (-115) at New England Patriots

Tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!

For a prop lean, I love TreVeyon Henderson 70+ rushing yards at +120, playable to about -110. New England has averaged 125.0 rushing yards over the last five while the Giants have bled 157.2 on the ground, worst in the league by a mile. Henderson just handled 21 touches on roughly a 65% snap share even with Rhamondre back and already posted 244 scrimmage yards and five touchdowns across his two earlier starts. Vrabel should lean on that feature workload behind a still-functional line rather than expose Drake Maye behind shaky protection against a blitz-happy front. If the Patriots lead, Henderson closes; if they grind a one-score game, Henderson still stacks volume. I’d rather ride his 18 to 22 carries into a soft front at plus money than bet on New England suddenly becoming a quick-strike, pass-heavy blowout machine.

Best prop lean: TreVeyon Henderson 70+ rushing yards (+120)

Tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!