Clearly, the Kansas City Chiefs aren’t where they wanted to be 13 weeks into the 2025 NFL season. After suffering a crushing loss to the Dallas Cowboys on Thanksgiving, KC fell to just 6-6 with five games left to go.

They’re outside of the current AFC playoff picture. While the Chiefs could still turn things around to punch a postseason ticket, their margin for error has practically evaporated. Chances are, another loss or two could mathematically eliminate them from contention.

Even running the table from this point forward would only give Kansas City 11 wins. That should be enough to lock up a Wild Card spot in the AFC, but nothing is guaranteed at this juncture. 10 wins was presumed to be enough in this conference before the season began, but it’s looking increasingly likely that the Chiefs could be on the outside looking in at 10-7, considering they’ve already lost head-to-heads against several of the teams currently above them in the standings.

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs, NFL, Los Angeles Chargers

Sep 5, 2025; Sao Paulo, BRAZIL; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) runs against Los Angeles Chargers linebacker Daiyan Henley (0) in the first half during a NFL game at Corinthians Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jean Carniel/Reuters via Imagn Images | Jean Carniel/Reuters via Imagn Images

Can the Chiefs still win the AFC West?

Of course, the best way for the Kansas City Chiefs to guarantee themselves a postseason bid is to win their division. They were favored to take the AFC West crown before the season, and even held decent odds through the majority of this campaign, even as they steadily fell behind in the standings.

At 6-6, the Chiefs are behind the 7-4 Los Angeles Chargers and the current leader, Denver Broncos, at 9-2. The good news is that Kansas City still has a head-to-head matchup with both of those two divisional rivals still on its docket. The Chiefs will have to ensure that they sweep their remaining games against the AFC West, and that still might not be enough.

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs, NFL, Denver Broncos, Bo Nix

Nov 10, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) talks with Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) after the game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images | Denny Medley-Imagn Images

Chiefs face steep odds

FanDuel has the Chiefs at +1200 to win the AFC West. Even winning out at this point won’t guarantee that Kansas City will rise to the top of the division. Aside from the Chiefs, the Denver Broncos have the Washington Commanders, Las Vegas Raiders, Green Bay Packers, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Los Angeles Chargers left on their slate. They currently hold a 2-1 mark in the division.

As for the Chargers, they play the Raiders, Philadelphia Eagles, Chiefs, Dallas Cowboys, Houston Texans, and Broncos still. Kansas City could catch LA if it wins out, including beating the Chargers head-to-head, but they’ll need quite a bit of help if they want to surpass Denver. The Broncos would have to lose at least four of their last six games, and that might not even be enough.

Betting odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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