The Chicago Bears built on their NFC North lead in Week 13, while the Detroit Lions dropped a pivotal game against the Green Bay Packers. The Houston Texans beat the Indianapolis Colts to get back into the playoff race, while Colts quarterback Daniel Jones continues to fall back to earth. Las Vegas Raiders running back Ashton Jeanty has been disappointing this season. Should we be concerned?

Johnson has shifted NFC North tide

The Bears hiring Ben Johnson as head coach has changed the NFC North landscape. The Lions, where he had been offensive coordinator, still have one of the best offenses in the league, but drop-offs in different areas have culminated in a disappointing season for Detroit. The Lions are in danger of missing the playoffs a season after being the NFC’s top playoff seed.

Of course, there are other factors at play for Detroit’s offensive drop-off. The offensive line has felt the loss of guard Kevin Zeitler and All-Pro center Frank Ragnow, who tried to return before a grade-three hamstring tear was discovered. But play calling has undoubtedly been an issue too. Head coach Dan Campbell took over play-calling duties from John Morton a few weeks ago and it has improved, but Johnson is one of the best in the league, which we’ve all been reminded of with how quickly he’s turned around the Bears offense.

Chicago just stunned the Eagles’ mighty defense by running for 281 yards against them — the second-most yards ever given up by a Vic Fangio-led unit. The Lions, who played the Eagles in Week 11, only ran for 74 yards and scored nine points.

BearsLions

Explosive play rate

12.8% (3rd)

12.4% (6th)

Success rate

46.7% (10th)

47.2% (9th)

Points per game

2.27 (12th)

2.60 (5th)

Even with the jump in production, the Bears are still just scratching the surface of their potential. Johnson vowed during their bye week to get the running game going, and since then, they’ve been the most explosive running team in the league. Now, he has to fix their passing game. The Bears are eighth in explosive pass rate, but they haven’t been efficient and Caleb Williams leads the league in off-target passes.

Despite the alarming off-target rate, Williams is not a naturally inaccurate passer. I’d bet that when the Bears are doing drills in which the quarterback has to hit a small net, Williams can get the ball in the net at a high rate from any distance. He has strong mechanics and is a natural thrower of the ball. I believe what is happening is his head is swimming a bit while trying to become an anticipatory passer, and his footwork isn’t as clean as it needs to be.

13:00 remaining in the third quarter, third-and-5

On this play, the Bears had tight end Colston Loveland run a choice route to Williams’ right and receiver Luther Burden run a dig route on the opposite side. Loveland was Williams’ first read and Burden was his next. The play was designed to stress the inside of the Eagles’ secondary. If they dropped to Loveland, Burden should have a window inside to run to.

Williams looked to Loveland. The Eagles were in match coverage and tightly covered the choice route.

As Williams looked to Burden, he was already in position to throw, but Burden didn’t quite get out of his break as Williams expected. Perhaps Burden was trying to throttle down his route a little too early before he cleared the underneath defender.

Williams ended up throwing the ball too high because he was trying to get it over the Eagles’ underneath defender and Burden couldn’t hold on.

When throwing with anticipation, Williams isn’t throwing to a stationary target. He has to essentially imagine where his receiver will end up and throw the ball there, and that’s a skill he’s developing. There will be less guesswork with more reps in this offense and time with his receivers.

Right now, the Bears’ passing game is out of sync. When Williams does throw a well-placed, timing pass, his receivers slip or drop the ball, and when they get open, he’ll miss them. An encouraging sign is that Williams is finding the open receiver and he’s throwing the ball on time. Williams’ leading the league in time to throw is the result of long-developing play-action concepts and his trying to create on third down. However, there are plenty of reps on tape of Williams playing on time.

“The primary receiver, when he’s open, we’ve got to make sure we hit him,” Johnson said on Monday. “And then all of our pass catchers, we just harped on it today, we need to be more disciplined in our route detail. It’s not where it needs to be. Our depth’s not proper all the time.”

In a timing offense like Johnson’s, everyone has to be on the same page, and right now, they just aren’t. The Bears have a young group of skill players who will grow together and they’re close to a breakthrough.

Despite the passing game issues and defensive injuries, the Bears are leading the NFC North at 9-3, while the Lions are fighting for their lives and will likely look for a new offensive play caller next season.

Texans streaking

The Texans defense is terrifying. Their attacking style contrasts with the light-box, two-high style of defense proliferating in the league. Their philosophy is built around allowing their defensive line to attack upfield and defensive ends Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. are the best duo in the league. They’ve shut down Josh Allen and Daniel Jones in the last two weeks.

1:49 remaining in the fourth quarter, fourth-and-9

On the Colts’ final offensive snap, Jones drove the ball to the Texans’ 30-yard line but had to convert on fourth-and-9. The Texans had a blitz called with one inside linebacker blitzing and the slot defender blitzing from depth. On the last snap, the Texans man-blitzed, but this time, they had a zone pressure called.

Jones actually was protected, but the relentless pressure he faced all day made him rush the pass. He didn’t see the flat defender collide with a receiver, resulting in Josh Downs getting wide open outside.

Jones tried to throw the ball inside, but it was tightly covered, the pass was too high and it was knocked down.

Jones was already falling back down to earth after a hot start to the season before injuring his fibula. The Texans challenged Jones to beat them deep by using man coverage and heavy blitzing. To Jones’ credit, he hit Alec Pierce deep for a touchdown, but he couldn’t do it consistently. By the end of the game, the pressure got to him and he failed to deliver on a potential game-winning drive.

It’s been impressive to watch how Texans coach DeMeco Ryans changes his approach from week to week, depending on who they face. This week, he zero-blitzed Jones more than he has at any point this season.

After a dismal start, first-year Texans offensive coordinator Nick Caley has found some answers despite a lack of talent on the offensive line. In the last three weeks, the Texans rank 12th in explosive plays. In that time span, backup quarterback Davis Mills, who filled in for C.J. Stroud, and Stroud were throwing at the fifth-fastest rate in the league.

Caley has effectively used motion to quickly get receivers open, and the Texans’ running game has improved since Woody Marks replaced Nick Chubb as the main back. The Texans offense doesn’t have to put up 30 every week for this team to make the playoffs. If it can create explosives at the rate it has in the last few weeks and get the ball to Nico Collins consistently, that should be enough with how well the defense is playing. If the Texans can build a lead and allow Hunter and Anderson to pin their ears back, watch out!

Is Ashton Jeanty a bust?

Jeanty was widely seen as one of the best running back prospects in a long time when he was drafted in April. Raiders general manager John Spytek loved him enough to take him No. 6 despite the team’s many glaring needs. Jeanty’s production has been disappointing. He’s only averaging 3.5 yards per carry and 52.9 yards per game.

The Raiders offensive line is one of the worst in the league and has dealt with multiple injuries. Also, the scheme has been awful. The Raiders fired Chip Kelly last week after making him the highest-paid offensive coordinator in the offseason. So Jeanty is dealing with blockers getting beaten at the point of attack, and at times, there are blockers not accounted for because of the poor scheme. The Raiders are last in the league in average yards before contact by a wide margin, meaning Jeanty is getting hit at the line of scrimmage a lot.

Despite these issues, is Jeanty at fault? Can he do more? According to Pro Football Focus, Jeanty ranks sixth in forced missed tackles. He’s eluding tackles, but as we’ve learned time and time again, a great running back cannot make up for a bad offensive line.

Saquon Barkley, who rushed for 2,000 yards last season, is only averaging 61.7 yards per game and 3.7 yards per carry because the Eagles offensive line has dropped off because of injuries. Even with those injuries, Philadelphia’s offensive line is much better than the Raiders’.

Las Vegas drafting Jeanty at this stage of its rebuilding is bad process. The franchise has to spend a lot of resources fixing its offensive line, but Jeanty is a much better player than his numbers indicate.

For him to live up to his draft status, he is expected to be elite and he can’t be elite with the issues the Raiders have. Though he could be one of the best backs in the league, because of the position’s dependent nature, he won’t live up to his draft status until the Raiders can block.