This is not rocket science: The New Orleans Saints offense goes as quarterback Tyler Shough does.
There were moments of brilliance from the rookie Sunday against the Miami Dolphins, and those cannot be dismissed because those flashes of high-level traits are evidence that the Saints can build around him. But moments are not enough to win NFL games, not consistently, anyway.
The Saints went to the locker room at halftime with 63 net yards of offense. They went three and out on their first three drives, Shough was sacked and lost a fumble on the fourth play of their fourth drive, then they went three and out again on their fifth drive. It took 32 minutes of game time for the Saints to gain more than 10 yards on an offensive play.
The sluggish start certainly wasn’t all on Shough, who did not get much help from his teammates or his play-calling head coach — the strip sack, for instance, came on a play where the Saints had a six-man protection, plus receiver Devaughn Vele chipping at the line of scrimmage — but Shough played an important role when it came to the drives stalling out.
There were two clear opportunities early in the game for Shough to connect on passes that would move the chains on third downs, and poor ball placement cost the Saints both chances.
Facing a third and seven on the opening drive, Shough made the right decision from a clean pocket to throw to Mason Tipton, who was running a pivot route to the field side of the formation. But the throw came in low, forcing Tipton to go to the ground to catch it. He was touched down two yards shy of the marker.
On the ensuing drive, Shough again made the correct read when he saw tight end Juwan Johnson sit down in a hole in the Dolphins’ zone coverage on third and 4. This time the ball sailed high and toward the middle of the field, allowing Miami linebacker Tyrel Dodson to make a play on the ball.
Dissecting ball placement is nit-picky, but those third down plays are critical even without the benefit of hindsight. Better throws in either scenario would have given the Saints a new set of downs near midfield, and who knows what happens then?
Because once Shough got rolling, he made some exceptional plays, both within the structure of the offense and in the scramble phase.
This is how Shough’s first six pass attempts went in the second half: A 14-yard sideline throw to Devaughn Vele from the pocket, a 14-yard sideline missile to Vele thrown on the run while scrambling, a 17-yard touchdown to Chris Olave (also made possible by Shough extending the play with his legs), another 14-yard strike to Vele from the pocket with pass rusher Bradley Chubb bearing down on him, a ripped 12-yarder into a tight window to Vele again, and finally an on-time, on-target throw on an in-breaker to Juwan Johnson that allowed him to gain yards after the catch for an 11-yard gain.
Shough has the tools at his disposal to be a really good starting quarterback in the NFL — something that has been evident for moments in each of his four starts — but it’s on both him and the Saints to unlock those tools more consistently.
Numbers to know
56 — Charlie Smyth’s 56-yard field goal is the second longest ever by an NFL kicker on his first career attempt. The record belongs to former Falcons punter Michael Koenen, who hit a 58-yarder in 2005 and also famously had a punt blocked by Steve Gleason a year later.
-0.82 — The Saints offense had a -0.82 Expected Points Added per play in the first quarter against Miami. Put another way, every play they ran decreased their chances of scoring by almost a full point.Â
7/8 — After recording just 81 net rushing yards on 27 carries against Miami, the Saints have now failed to top 90 rushing yards as a team in seven of their last eight games (the lone outlier being a 122-yard day against Carolina). On the season, the Saints are averaging just 90.7 yards per game on the ground, worse than all but three teams.
Thoughts and observations
Growth isn’t linear, and that’s something to keep in mind with Kool-Aid McKinstry, who has had his share of ups and downs in his second season. But the highs are really, really good. He was excellent against Miami, catching as many Dolphins passes as the receivers he covered, and his chase down tackle on fourth down late in the game was a phenomenal effort on his part.
Loved the call from Kellen Moore with the game on the line to run four verticals on second and 1 and give Chris Olave a chance to win the game, loved the throw from Shough, and after watching the replays I thought Olave should have come down with that pass — even if there was an added degree of difficulty navigating the defensive back. Did not love the execution on the following third down from Shough, who bailed too early and then made a panicked throw. Hated the fourth down sneak call.
Vele was a real difference-maker in this game for the Saints, which begs the question: Why weren’t the Saints giving him these opportunities all year? It’s a question the team hasn’t had a good answer for despite having had many chances at answering it. Vele was doing all the things everyone thought he could add as a big-bodied weapon who could make difficult contested catches.
The Saints really need to take a look under the hood of their rushing offense this offseason. The backs haven’t had much of a chance to break off explosive runs.