The Broncos found themselves in a familiar position Sunday night after Washington Commanders kicker Jake Moody booted the point after following teammate Chris Rodriguez Jr.’s 8-yard touchdown run in the second quarter of Sunday night’s game.
The sequence gave the Commanders a 7-6 lead. That meant the Broncos, for the 12th time in as many games this season, trailed on the scoreboard at some point in the contest. For the 10th time, Denver won anyway. When Nik Bonitto swatted away Marcus Mariota’s two-point pass in overtime, the Broncos’ success on the comeback trail this season became an even greater anomaly.
If constant deficits seem like a precursor to a string of defeats, that’s because they usually are. There are 95 teams since 2000, including this season’s Broncos, who have trailed at some point in each of their first 12 games, according to TruMedia. Only five of those teams — again, the Broncos included — produced a winning record in that stretch. The records of each of the other four such squads: 7-5.
What’s more? Only five of the aforementioned teams that trailed in each of their first 12 games made the playoffs. Not only are the Broncos a veritable lock to become the sixth — they have a 98 percent chance to reach the postseason, according to The Athletic’s simulator — but they are also firmly in the hunt for the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
Not all deficits are created equal, of course. The Broncos have trailed by more than a score only once all season. That was against the Giants in Week 7, when the Broncos trailed 26-8 with six minutes left — a scenario that had spelled defeat for the previous 1,602 teams that had found themselves in that unfortunate position. Denver, of course, rallied as part of a 33-point fourth quarter and avoided becoming team No. 1,603. The Broncos also trailed the Bengals 3-0 in the early moments of Week 4. It turned out, after a 28-3 victory, that early deficit wasn’t exactly an insurmountable hole.
Still, the high-wire act the Broncos have successfully navigated is unlike any in recent NFL history. They have needed a league-high six game-winning drives from quarterback Bo Nix in the fourth quarter or overtime to keep their nine-game winning streak alive. They have won four games on the final play, including Sunday, and they’ve won their last four games by a combined 10 points.
“Playing a complete game, it would be nice for four quarters, but that’s not how this league works,” linebacker Alex Singleton said after Sunday’s 27-26, nail-biting victory, explaining why the Broncos have become comfortable with the reality that they’ll be dancing on a knife’s edge most weeks. “To just find ways to continue to win is important.”
There are some quantitative ways to help explain why the Broncos have been able to survive so many deficits and close calls this season.
The Broncos rank first in third-down defense (27.7 percent opponent conversion rate) and fourth in the red zone (41.7 percent) during the second half of games, according to TruMedia. They force three-and-outs on 42 percent of opponent drives during that same period, tied for the best mark in the NFL. It’s easier for a team not to sweat deficits when it knows its defense will keep creating opportunities to overcome them.
“There’s this feeling that you can’t really describe that you never truly feel like you’re out of it,” tight end Adam Trautman said. “I know we feel that way as an offense because of how great our defense is.”
Nix has also been among the league’s most efficient quarterbacks in the fourth quarter. That extended to his first career overtime victory Sunday, when he completed 4 of 4 passes for 71 yards during Denver’s winning touchdown drive in the extra period. That came two weeks after Nix converted two third downs and then found Troy Franklin with a 32-yard pass on the Broncos’ final drive against the Chiefs, a masterful final sequence that gave Denver firm control over the AFC West.
Nix’s steady hand has gone beyond the numbers he is producing in the game’s critical moments.
“He is so calm. He’ll maybe make a little joke or smile or something in the huddle, and everyone feels relaxed,” Trautman said. “It’s his overall demeanor. He never feels shaken by anything. You’re watching him, and he gets us out of a lot of bad situations, as well. … He’s just a gamer, and he finds ways to fix things. I think that’s where the confidence stems from and why we believe in him so much.”
There is a familiar refrain being sung around the Broncos as their winning streak survives another flip of the calendar. They can’t keep winning this way, it goes. History gives credence to that assertion. Typically, teams that often trail often lose. Nix himself suggested he would like to try a different way of football life during the final five weeks of the regular season.
“You wanna start winning a little bit bigger,” the quarterback said, “and putting opponents away the best you can.”
Perhaps that will come Sunday when the Broncos visit the Las Vegas Raiders (2-10), who were officially eliminated from the playoffs following their loss to the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 13. Or, perhaps, the Broncos will find themselves on the wrong end of the scoreboard at some point for the 13th straight game and the anomaly will grow.