It’s not easy being a favorite during the 2025 NFL season. Seven of the previous top 11 teams in BetMGM’s Super Bowl odds lost during Week 13 — including four during Thursday and Friday’s holiday matchups.

Significant movement in playoff seeding means the market is expanding to include more teams. An astounding 17 teams now sit at +4000 odds or better — up from 16 such teams in the preseason. As of a month ago, only 11 teams carried those odds.

What felt like a runaway market with common favorites is now completely wide open thanks to the emergence of new contenders.

With the Chicago Bears and Houston Texans charging up the board, added emphasis on the teams a bit further down the board is picking up.

Live Super Bowl oddsLos Angeles stays on top of shifting NFC landscape

Despite losing as a double-digit favorite against Carolina, the Los Angeles Rams (+450) only dipped slightly from +400 odds. Former MVP favorite Matthew Stafford finally threw a pick for the first time since Week 3 — part of three turnovers during Sunday’s loss.

Perhaps most importantly, Los Angeles lost its stronghold on both the NFC and the NFC West. The Rams are now behind Chicago for the NFC’s top seed while the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers both closed ground in the division race. A rematch with the Seahawks (+850) looms in Week 16.

Moving up from fifth place and +1100 odds, Seattle is now second after a shutout win over struggling Minnesota. Quarterback Sam Darnold and wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba both found themselves in the top 10 of BetMGM’s MVP odds over the last month. Aside from the Rams rematch at home in Week 16, Seattle hosts Indianapolis in Week 15 and travels to San Francisco in Week 18.

The Athletic’s Seahawks reporter Michael-Shawn Dugar weighed in on Seattle’s surge:

“The Seahawks’ emergence as a Super Bowl contender can be attributed to two factors. One was expected; the other is more of a surprise,” Dugar said.

“Seattle has one of the best defenses in the league thanks to second-year head coach Mike Macdonald, regarded as one of the top schemers in the league. Macdonald’s scheme not only maximizes the talents of blue-chip players such as Leonard Williams and DeMarcus Lawrence, but it also sets up unheralded defenders to become playmakers. There are 17 Seahawks with at least a half-sack, and players such as Ernest Jones IV, Drake Thomas and Coby Bryant are performing like the best at their respective positions.

“Now for the surprising result: Seattle also has one of the league’s top offenses. With Klint Kubiak calling plays, Darnold operating efficiently and Smith-Njigba having a season worthy of Offensive Player of the Year recognition, the Seahawks have become one of the most dangerous teams in the NFL.”

The Philadelphia Eagles and Green Bay Packers are both close at +900. Philadelphia dropped slightly from second place and +800 odds after losing to the Bears on Black Friday. A Thanksgiving road win at Detroit — finishing a Packers’ season sweep of the Lions — pushed Green Bay into a tie for third.

If Philadelphia wins in Los Angeles on Monday night, it sets them up for a possible end-of-season run to secure a strong seed. The Eagles have only one other matchup against a team with a winning record. But December poses weekly tests for the Packers. Two of the next three weeks come against Chicago for NFC North supremacy. Green Bay also faces a road test at Denver while hosting Baltimore in Week 17.

AFC remains a close battle

After the NFC’s run at the top, the next six teams in the Super Bowl odds all come from the AFC.

The Buffalo Bills (+1000) responded from their unexpected road loss in Houston with an impressive win in Pittsburgh behind a dominant running attack and renewed defensive intensity. The Bills can’t sleep on the Bengals with Joe Burrow’s return ahead of an important AFC East rematch against New England in Week 15.

Speaking of the Patriots, they’re tied with the Denver Broncos at +1100 odds — right behind Buffalo. Monday night’s easy win over the Giants pushed New England into the AFC’s top seed. A late bye week gives New England Week 14 off and an extra week to rest and prepare for a critical home game against Buffalo.

Denver escaped with an overtime road win in Washington and is heavily favored in Las Vegas this week. Armed with a two-game advantage over the third-best AFC team, four straight weeks against playoff hopefuls will ultimately determine Denver’s push for the top seed — including an important closing stretch at Kansas City and hosting the Chargers.

After losing three of their last four games, the Indianapolis Colts (+1500) fell from +1000 odds. Looking dominant through eight games, the recent Indianapolis slide gives Jacksonville and Houston momentum in the crowded AFC South race.

The Colts need to figure things out quickly with their final five games all coming against teams in the playoff picture — including two against the Jaguars and traveling to Houston for the final game of the season.

Even though both teams lost on Thanksgiving to move to 6-6, the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens (both +1700 odds) are still top 10 in Super Bowl odds. The Ravens are tied for the AFC North lead with Pittsburgh and have a much better track at a playoff spot — particularly with two matchups still looming against the Steelers.

Kansas City hosts Houston and the Chargers over the next two weeks and likely needs to win both to feel comfortable about a playoff spot.

Number of contenders growing

Losses from so many top contenders completely opened up the second tier of contenders.

The top NFC team at one point this season, the Detroit Lions (+2200) fell to fifth in the conference — and 11th overall — after its Thanksgiving loss to Green Bay. Road matchups against the Rams and Bears — the NFC’s top two seeds — give Detroit ample opportunity to win its way back up the list.

The San Francisco 49ers (+2500), which are one game behind the Rams and Seahawks in the loss column in the NFC West, jumped from +3000 odds. A late-season bye and only one more road matchup mean the Niners leave the Bay Area only once until January.

Following Week 8’s loss to the Lamar Jackson-less Ravens, the Chicago Bears (+3000) looked out of playoff contention while sitting at +15000 odds. The eye-opening road win in Philadelphia gives Chicago newfound credibility as a playoff threat. Now atop the NFC standings, the Bears play a critical stretch with two games in three weeks against the rival Packers.

Christian Cipollini, senior trading manager at BetMGM, told The Athletic there’s a reason the Bears aren’t higher up the odds board yet.

“The Bears have a great record, but they are not a great team,” Cipollini said. “For example, Chicago has the point differential of a .500 team. Their future odds reflect this discrepancy.”

Similarly left behind were the Houston Texans (+3000). Surviving an 0-3 start and three additional games without quarterback C.J. Stroud, Houston willed its way back into the AFC South race during its four-game winning streak.

Sunday night’s matchup in Kansas City gives Houston an opportunity to enhance its playoff chances while also hurting the Chiefs in the process.

Three more teams have +4000 odds — the Jacksonville Jaguars, Los Angeles Chargers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Chargers host Philadelphia on Monday night.

Jacksonville hosts Indianapolis, with the winner taking over the AFC South lead entering the last four weeks.

Tampa Bay got back on track against Arizona and leads the NFC South. A favorable final stretch gives the Buccaneers no games against Super Bowl contenders while only leaving Florida once for a matchup in Carolina.