It’s a tight race in the NFC.

No, really.

The Los Angeles Rams, Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers all have nine wins. The current No. 1 seed Chicago Bears also have as many wins as the No. 7 seed 49ers. A banged-up Washington Commanders team and weak NFC South means the Philadelphia Eagles and Tampa Bay Buccaneers can take their divisions with less dominant performances (though that won’t mean it’s easy since the Panthers are just one-half game back of Tampa Bay) but it’ll take more than 10 wins to capture the NFC West this time around.

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Just how many wins will get it done?

“I think it’s possibly going to need 13 wins,” Seahawks Draft Blog’s Rob Staton said Tuesday during his weekly conversation with Bump and Stacy. “I do think the rest of Seattle’s schedule is enticing with the opportunity. I like the fact they’ve got to play the Rams and Niners again. I don’t want to go into the postseason without having beaten either of those two teams. If they lose both of those games or lose to the Rams, then you can measure your expectations for the playoffs.

“But before the season began, I thought 11 wins would win you the NFC West. I don’t think that’s going to be enough. I think maybe 12 might not be enough. It is such a tough division.”

Staton mentioned the rest of Seattle’s schedules and the opportunities therein, so let’s talk about it!

Remaining schedule winners and losers

The Seahawks have the toughest remaining schedule of the three contending NFC West teams, with four of five games against opponents with winning records. The Rams have just two opponents over .500 while the 49ers have three.

Here’s what Seattle’s got on tap:

Week 14: at Falcons (4-8)
Week 15: vs Colts (8-4)
Week 16: vs Rams (9-3)
Week 17: at Panthers (7-6)
Week 18: at 49ers (9-4)

The Rams will host the Lions and then head to Seattle to face the Seahawks in back-to-back weeks, and otherwise play the Cardinals twice and the Falcons (both teams have seven wins combined).

Three of the 49ers’ remaining opponents are over .500, but they’ll face just four teams instead of five thanks to a very late (and much needed) bye week. They’ll pick up with a contest against the lowly Tennessee Titans before taking on the Colts, Bears and Seahawks — a tough stretch.

Important tiebreakers

A loss to the Bucs could haunt Seattle weeks later, but they can also keep that from mattering.

Both the Seahawks and 49ers lost to Tampa Bay, but the Rams beat the Bucs, which could end up serving as a tiebreaker. So too could a game against the Panthers or the Colts — the Rams beat the Colts but lost to the Panthers, both of whom Seattle still needs to play.

As a reminder, tiebreakers for division titles between two clubs are settled first by a head-to-head record, but then by:

2. Win-loss-tie percentage in the division
3. Win-loss-tie percentage in common games
4. Win-loss-tie percentage in the conference
5. Strength of victory
6. Strength of schedule

It goes on all the way up to a coin toss for the 12th tiebreaker, but rarely will this be the case, so we’ll stop here.

The Rams hold the current tiebreaker thanks to a head-to-head win over Seattle. The Seahawks must beat the Rams and 49ers to avoid losing out on a division tiebreaker (the Rams and 49ers split this season). The 49ers and Seahawks swept the Cardinals (the Rams have yet to play Arizona). So a few things have yet to be settled when it comes to that tiebreaker with quite a few divisional matchups still to play.

Here’s what you need to know

The Rams are slight favorites to win the division. With three games against the Cardinals and Falcons, that makes sense. But the Rams and Seahawks are the two heaviest favorites to win Super Bowl LX. Not the Eagles, not the Bills, not the Packers. The Rams and Seahawks.

It’ll take more than 10 wins to get the No. 1 seed — your best bet to get to the Super Bowl — and NFC West crow, but this Seattle team also looks and feels like a team that’s capable of getting 12 or 13 wins.

Mike Macdonald doesn’t seem keen on doing that math right now. He brushed off a question about the division’s tight race Wednesday afternoon.

“It’s just like, alright, whatever,” he told reporters. “Let’s go beat Atlanta.”

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