Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 14’s game between the Detroit Lions and the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday Night Football.

Thursday night in Detroit feels like a referendum on where these two brands actually stand. The Lions opened the year as a rising NFC darling, now wobbling into December with questions about their defense. Dallas brings louder star power and sharper passing tape, yet still fights a reputation for unraveling in big spots. Ford Field will not care about narratives, only whether explosive plays and red-zone trips cash into points. I expect this one to play like a playoff preview disguised as a short-week showcase. Below is my prediction for NFL Week 14’s game between the Detroit Lions and the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday Night Football.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

Under the hood, the numbers say these offenses live in the same neighborhood, but the streets look different. Detroit averages about 376 yards per game, with roughly 252 through the air and 138 on the ground. Dallas sits closer to 393 yards per game, throwing for about 280 and running for roughly 122. By EPA, both attacks grade as true top-tier units, with the Lions at +0.086 per snap and the Cowboys at +0.097. The passing split leans slightly Dallas, +0.187 pass EPA to Detroit’s +0.161, while Detroit owns the marginal edge on the ground with -0.008 rush EPA against Dallas at -0.035. In the red zone, Detroit has turned 23.4% of its snaps into touchdowns versus 20.3% for Dallas, a small but real edge when drives compress.

Goff brings about 70% completions, 3,025 yards, 25 touchdowns, five interceptions and a clean eight yards per attempt. Prescott answers with about 69% completions, 3,261 yards, 25 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Running back Jahmyr Gibbs and running back David Montgomery have stacked 1,562 rushing yards and 16 scores, giving Detroit a backfield that can attack light boxes. Running back Javonte Williams offers real volume for Dallas, but his efficiency lags and leaves more of the heavy lifting on Prescott’s arm.

Recent form pushes even harder toward a Dallas passing edge. Over the last four weeks, Detroit has actually posted the better overall EPA per play, sitting at +0.078 to Dallas at +0.053, but the split matters. The Lions have enjoyed positive rushing efficiency and about 164 rushing yards per game, with +0.074 rush EPA, while their passing sits near +0.080. Dallas owns the more explosive recent passing line, throwing for roughly 314 yards per game with a blistering +0.252 pass EPA, while the rushing attack slumps at -0.195. Prescott has delivered eight touchdowns and two interceptions in that stretch, with +0.154 EPA per play and a 51.6% success rate. Goff has matched the eight touchdowns with only two picks himself, posting +0.102 EPA per play and a 47.3% success rate.

Detroit’s offense has pumped out 427.3 yards per game in this window, while Dallas has edged them at 437, mostly through that vertical passing surge. Detroit’s defense has allowed 359 yards per game in this sample, even with Hutchinson flashing 17 recent pressures off the edge. Dallas has surrendered only 312.3 yards per game, tightening against the run and cutting opponents to 69.7 rushing yards per game while still living with some downfield shots. Defensive tackle Quinnen Williams headlines Dallas’s interior rush, with 18 pressures and ten hurries, paired with corner Daron Bland’s sticky coverage outside. Receivers George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb have played like efficiency cheats, combining for 631 yards and four scores recently on sky-high EPA and success rates. Jameson Williams and Amon-Ra St. Brown answer with explosive Lions production, but Dallas still owns the cleaner passing matchup.

Cowboys vs. Lions pick, best bet

The best Lions case starts with their full season profile, which still looks stronger than Dallas on several fronts. Detroit allows only 316.2 yards per game against 376.2 for Dallas and owns the clear season-long edge in defensive EPA. They sit at -0.035 defensive EPA per play overall with +0.012 against the pass and -0.095 versus the run. Dallas, by contrast, lives at +0.123 defensive EPA per snap, with +0.155 against the pass and +0.080 versus the run. Their run defense belongs in elite company, holding opponents to 103.7 rushing yards per game and negative rush EPA. Detroit converts a higher share of red-zone snaps into touchdowns than Dallas, 23.4% of plays versus 20.3%. That edge has carried through the last four games as well.

They also lead in sacks and takeaways over the season, with 32 sacks and 13 turnovers forced. Dallas sits at 28 sacks and nine takeaways. Goff has protected the ball better than Prescott, throwing five interceptions to Prescott’s eight on similar volume. This version of Detroit can grind with Gibbs and Montgomery, stay ahead of the sticks and lean on red-zone poise. The market leans into that résumé, hanging Detroit as a 3-point favorite in their own controlled environment. I respect that side, but the recent trend lines and matchup details tilt me toward taking the points instead.

I expect Dallas to treat this like a passing showcase, attacking Detroit’s secondary early and forcing lighter boxes for Williams. Prescott should lean into three-receiver sets and motion, chasing the +0.252 recent pass EPA edge against Detroit’s +0.277 allowed. Receivers Pickens and Lamb should live on isolation routes and crossers, stressing Detroit’s corners and safeties in space. Jake Ferguson works underneath as a third-down and red-zone outlet, especially when Quinnen Williams collapses pockets from the inside. Detroit answers with Gibbs in every phase, using motion, angle routes and outside runs to punish aggressive Dallas fronts. Montgomery handles the dirty work, keeping them in manageable thirds while Jameson and St. Brown hunt explosives downfield.

That structure favors a tight, high-scoring game where one or two Cowboys drives against soft coverage decide the cover. Give me the points with the hotter passing operation and the diverse receiving room in a building that rewards offense.

Final score: Cowboys 31, Lions 30, with Dallas +3 live all the way through a volatile fourth quarter.

Best bet: Cowboys +3 (-110) at Lions

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For a prop lean, my favorite way to ride this script is through CeeDee Lamb’s volume. CeeDee Lamb over 83.5 receiving yards at -115, playable to 88.5 or -125, fits how Dallas should attack Detroit’s coverage. Over the last four weeks, Prescott has thrown for 942 yards with eight touchdowns, two interceptions, +0.154 EPA per play and a 51.6% success rate. Lamb owns 27 targets, 16 catches, 253 yards, two touchdowns, +25.03 total EPA and an 87.5% success rate in that same window. Detroit’s pass defense has sprung real leaks, allowing 245.3 passing yards per game over the last four and a brutal +0.277 EPA per pass. Dallas, meanwhile, sits at +0.252 pass EPA, throwing for roughly 314 yards per game in that stretch and leaning fully into three-receiver sets. The Lions’ run defense is good enough to push Dallas even further toward the air, and game script tilts toward four quarters of throwing in a tight spread.

Best prop lean: CeeDee Lamb o83.5 total receiving yards (-115)

Tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!