Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs against the NFL’s No. 1 defense
Coming off an absolute barnburner of a loss against the Cowboys, in which he threw for 261 yards and four touchdowns, Patrick Mahomes could not be getting a more polar-opposite matchup in Week 14. The Texans are, quite frankly, terrifying. They rank first in NFL Pro’s overall passing defense efficiency, as well as against play action, short passes, long passing, passing without pressure and passing without a blitz. They’ve surrendered the league’s lowest passer rating (74.2), allowed an awful 12-to-12 touchdown-to-interception ratio and held opponents to -0.20 EPA/dropback, the lowest mark in the league. No QB has cracked 20 fantasy points against Houston, and fantasy studs like Josh Allen and Matthew Stafford both fell short of 14 points in this matchup.
Will all that be enough to stop Mahomes? He and the Chiefs rank third in overall offensive passing efficiency on NFL Pro and hold the number one spot against pressure. The former MVP has scored 22+ fantasy points in eight games this season … but he did struggle in the matchup most similar to Houston, with 13.34 points against Denver in Week 11. He’s also thrown one or fewer touchdown pass in three of his last four games, but bracketed those three games with three or more TDs on repeat. His and Kansas City’s best bet will be diagnosing and beating the pressure brought by Will Anderson Jr. and the Texans pass rush, but it will be a tall task with Derek Stingley Jr. and company roaming on the back end.
Fantasy Fallout: Mahomes has ultimately been too good too often to sit him for just any streamer, even given the horrible matchup. But if you have another strong option, like Jared Goff against Dallas, it might be worth considering. Also, expect Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce to rack up catches in the short area as Mahomes looks for his quick outlets against pressure.