The Detroit Lions (7-5) come into Thursday night trying to steady itself after a rough Thanksgiving loss, and the pressure only grows with several key players sidelined. Sam LaPorta and Brock Wright are out, thinning the tight end room, and the secondary remains shorthanded without Kerby Joseph. The Lions still lean on Jared Goff and a backfield led by Jahmyr Gibbs, but the offense has fewer reliable options and a banged-up line that could struggle against Dallas’ pass rush. Detroit needs early rhythm to keep the game from tilting toward long passing downs, where protection becomes a real concern.

The Dallas Cowboys (6-5-1), meanwhile, arrive with momentum after three straight wins, including a tight victory over Kansas City. Dak Prescott has been sharp, and a receiving duo highlighted by CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens gives the Cowboys a consistent edge in the passing game. Their defense has also tightened up, creating pressure packages that match up well against Detroit’s depleted front. With both teams chasing playoff position, this game sets up as a critical NFC matchup where Dallas’ balance and health give it a slight early edge, but Detroit’s urgency at home keeps it compelling.

With both clubs fighting for playoff positioning, Thursday night won’t just be a regular-season game, it could shape the rest of the NFC narrative.

Lions vs. Cowboys betting preview

Utilize the interactive widget below to discover the current spread, total, and moneyline betting odds and probabilities for the Lions-Cowboys matchup at Ford Field.

Game details

Key information on the Giants vs. Patriots matchup, including where the game is and what time it kicks off.

OddsSpread: Lions favored at -3Total (Over/Under): 53.5Moneyline Odds: Cowboys +145, Lions -168

The odds and lines presented in this article are the best available from selected sports betting sites at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Expert Prediction: Lions vs. Cowboys

Dimers’ 10,000-simulation model gives Detroit a 60 percent win probability and projects a tight finish at Ford Field. The model’s predicted score lands at Lions 28, Cowboys 25, reflecting Detroit’s slight edge in offensive efficiency and red-zone conversion rate. Dallas keeps it close behind Dak Prescott’s passing volume, but the simulations lean toward the Lions controlling the fourth quarter at home.

Best Bet: Lions Moneyline (-168)

With Detroit favored in both win probability and the projected final score, the straight moneyline is the safest alignment with the model. The Lions’ offensive balance, combined with superior touchdown probability in key positions, supports this pick.

NFL Player Props: Anytime Touchdown Probabilities

Cowboys

Javonte Williams — 57.5%George Pickens — 45.5%CeeDee Lamb — 44.9%Jake Ferguson — 34.8%KaVontae Turpin — 14.3%

Lions

Jahmyr Gibbs — 68.1%Amon-Ra St. Brown — 47.3%Jameson Williams — 46.0%David Montgomery — 44.1%Brock Wright — 24.4%Projected Player StatsQuarterbacksTeamPlayerProjected YardsCowboysDak Prescott272LionsJared Goff249Rushing

Cowboys

PlayerTD %Projected YardsJavonte Williams57%72Dak Prescott10%10

Lions

PlayerTD %Projected YardsJahmyr Gibbs68%84David Montgomery44%42Receiving

Cowboys

PlayerTD %Projected YardsGeorge Pickens45%82CeeDee Lamb45%80Jake Ferguson35%45Javonte Williams57%15KaVontae Turpin14%14

Lions

PlayerTD %Projected YardsJameson Williams46%82Amon-Ra St. Brown47%63Jahmyr Gibbs68%37Brock Wright24%21David Montgomery44%16Conclusion: Lions vs. Cowboys

The analytics point to a competitive matchup, but Detroit holds clear statistical advantages in win probability, rushing efficiency, and touchdown projection. The Lions’ balanced attack and stronger late-game simulations make Lions Moneyline among the best actionable plays.

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