Seems awfully early to have a must-win game, but that’s exactly where the Houston Texans find themselves this week.

Only 7 teams from each conference make the post season. The Texans are currently 8th in line. Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs are 9th.

If you’ve been paying attention to H-Town pro ball at all over the last decade, you know the Chiefs have ruined Houston’s playoff hopes more than once. In memory-searing, painful ways. In fact, the Texans haven’t beaten them since 2019.

Thankfully for all of us, the 2025 Texans are built different. This isn’t Bill O’Brien’s never-ready-for-prime-time bunch. This is Demeco’s Dawgs, on the hunt.

EDGE specialists Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. have a combined 21.5 sacks and 26 tackles for loss this season.

The Texans are currently tied for 2nd in turnover differential with +9. The Chiefs are +2. Calen Bullock, Jalen Pitre and Derek Stingley Jr. have a combined 11 interceptions so far. Bullock also has a forced fumble.

Now, KC’s coach Andy Reid and OC Matt Nagy run a far better offensive scheme than Houston’s Nick Caley. So, the sacks, TFLs and takeaways are going to be the key to victory for the Texans this week.

The Chiefs have scored 305 points so far this season – good enough to rank 10th in the league. The Texans defense? The only unit in the NFL to have surrendered under 200 points right now. And, obviously, that’s #1.

Unfortunately, Caley’s offense is 22nd in scoring with only 263 points.

The blundered final drive to end last week’s first half against the Indianapolis Colts was a prime example of Caley’s game management and play calling deficiencies. Even all-world Texan J.J. Watt, who was providing color commentary for the game, was completely bewildered by the self-induced offensive stall.

That sort of Not-For-Long game management won’t get the job done in the playoffs. Hopefully, C.J. Stroud’s leadership instincts kick in and he pushes the envelope and gets this offense firing on all cylinders in spite of his OC.

Now, despite how unsuccessful Dan Orlovsky was as an NFL QB, his game analysis and predictions have pushed him to the front of the line in the NFL talking heads world. He sees improvement with Caley, which is great to hear. Just not sure I agree that this is Caley’s doing, when all the same issues of struggling to pick up red zone yards, poor clock management and other plagues from the first few weeks remain.

Houston Texans Week 14 Stats

TEXANS ranks 1st in yards allowed per game (265.7) & points allowed per game (16.5).QB C.J. STROUD completed 22 of 35 atts. (62.9 pct.) for 276 yards in Week 13. Aims for his 5th in row in primetime with 205+ pass yards. Completed 19 of 28 atts. (67.9 pct.) for 245 yards in 2024 AFC-D at KC.RB WOODY MARKS (rookie) rushed for 64 yards last week. Aims for his 5th in row with 50+ scrimmage yards.RB NICK CHUBB rushed for 34 yards & TD in Week 13. Had 101 scrimmage yards (83 rush, 18 rec.) & 2 rush TDs in his last game at KC (9/12/21 w/ Cle.).WR NICO COLLINS had 5 catches, 105 scrimmage yards (98 rec., 7 rush) & 1st- career rush TD last week. Has TD in 4 of his past 5 on road & 75+ scrimmage yards in 4 of his past 5 overall. Had 5 catches for 81 yards in 2024 AFC-D at KC.WR JAYDEN HIGGINS had 5 catches for career-high 65 yards in Week 13. Aims for his 3rd in row on road with 55+ rec. yards.TE DALTON SCHULTZ had 7 catches for 55 yards last week. Aims for his 5th in row on road with 5+ catches & 50+ rec. yards. Had 5 catches for 45 yards & TD in last reg. season meeting.DE WILL ANDERSON JR. had 4 tackles & TFL in Week 13. Is 1 of 2 (Brian Burns) with TFL in 11 games this season. Has sack in 6 of his past 7. Had 2 sacks in 2024 AFC-D at KC.DE DANIELLE HUNTER has sack in 3 of his past 4. Has 2+ TFL in 2 of his past 3 & 4+ tackles in 3 of his past 4.LB HENRY TO’OTO’O had 5 tackles & TFL in Week 13. Has TFL in 4 of his past 5. Had 10 tackles & TFL in last reg. season meeting.LB AZEEZ AL-SHAAIR led team with 8 tackles last week. Aims for his 6th in row with 5+ tackles. Had 6 tackles in 2024 AFC-D at KC.S CALEN BULLOCK had 7 tackles & PD in Week 13. Aims for his 3rd in row with 5+ tackles & PD.

Hopefully Ed Ingram rubs off on the rest of the offensive line and we see more of this against the Chiefs:

Kansas City Chiefs Week 14 Stats

QB PATRICK MAHOMES completed 23 of 34 atts. (67.6 pct.) for 261 yards & 4 TDs with 129.7 rating in Week 13. Ranks 2nd in AFC in pass yards (3,238) & TD passes (22) in 2025. Has 250+ pass yards in 10 games this season, tied-most in NFL. Surpassed HOFer Dan Marino (46) for most games with 3+ TD passes in 1st 9 seasons. Aims for his 8th in row in primetime with 210+ pass yards & TD. Completed 28 of 41 atts (68.3 pct.) for 260 yards & had 2 TDs (1 pass, 1 rush) in last reg. season meeting.RB KAREEM HUNT had 80 scrimmage yards (58 rush, 22 rec.) last week. Aims for his 5th in row with 55+ scrimmage yards. Has TD in 4 of his past 5. Aims for his 5th in row vs. Hou., incl. playoffs, with TD.WR RASHEE RICE had 8 catches for 92 yards & career-high 2 TDs in Week 13. Aims for his 3rd in row with 8+ catches & 90+ rec. yards. Has rec. TD in 3 of his past 4 at home.WR XAVIER WORTHY had 74 scrimmage yards (61 rec., 13 rush) last week. Aims for his 4th in row at home with 45+ scrimmage yards. Had 75 scrimmage yards (65 rec., 10 rush) & rec. TD in last reg. season meeting.TE TRAVIS KELCE had 5 catches for 45 yards & TD last week. Needs 81 rec. yards to join HOFer Jerry Rice as only players with 800+ rec. yards in 12 consective seasons. Had 7 catches for 117 yards & TD in 2024 AFC-D vs. Hou.DE CHRIS JONES had 4 tackles & TFL in Week 13. Has TFL in 2 of his past 3. Had 4 tackles & sack in 2024 AFC-D vs. Hou.DE GEORGE KARLAFTIS had 5 tackles & 3 sacks in 2024 AFC-D vs. Hou.LB NICK BOLTON led team with 11 tackles & had 2 PD last week. Aims for his 6th in row with 6+ tackles. Had 4 tackles, TFL & FF in last reg. season meeting.CB TRENT MCDUFFIE had 7 tackles & FF in Week 13. Aims for his 3rd in row vs. Hou., incl. playoffs, with 4+ tackles & PD.CB JAYLEN WATSON had 6 tackles & INT last week. Aims for his 3rd in row with PD.

A lot of conversation this season has revolved around the question “Is the Chiefs Dynasty over?”

While the polls I’ve seen clearly show most people think so, this is still the team (and the refs – /s) who dominated the AFC for the last several years. Regardless of the stats, momentum, good/bad mojo, the Texans are still the underdogs on this one.

Hope is one of those things that raises spirits and makes a lot of things possible. As a Texans fan, it’s also been the precursor to a lot of frustration and dismay. Should we hope this team is finally ready to get over the hump? Is this the year that H-Town gets back to an AFC Championship after waiting 45 years? A huge chunk of Texans fandom wasn’t even alive in 1980 when the Houston Oilers played in their last Championship game.

Last weekend was a test, and Demeco’s Dawgs passed!

This weekend is the next test – and they can pass it too.

Texans vs Chiefs prediction

Defense wins championships. We’ve all heard that saying far too many times. Well, this IS a championship defense. If the offense can at least elevate to the level of “average” the Texans can take it all the way this season.

Can this team overcome the weak link of OC Nick Caley? They’ve done so for the last 4 weeks. But, in order to get in to the post season, there’s no margin for error. That 4 game win streak needs to be a 5 game streak by the end of Sunday Night Football.