I know I’m stepping on some toes here. We have a weekly feature where we look at the performance of the Iowa State rookie receivers. It isn’t my intention to overstep here, but I thought I would take a moment to look at the history of the Texans. The franchise is in it’s 24th season and as such there are certain positions where we have had more success than others. The current crop of defensive ends have to contend with the shadow of the legacies of both J.J. Watt and Mario Williams. However, there is probably no position with a longer track record of success than wide receiver.
Both Andre Johnson and Deandre Hopkins cleared 1000 career catches total and while Hopkins is still active, he seems to be winding down and may not play anymore football beyond this season. Nothing is guaranteed as far as Canton is concerned, but it seems like he would be a solid candidate for the Hall of Fame. That would give the Texans two Hall of Fame wide receivers in their brief history.
Nico Collins might be that third franchise receiver in the brief history of the franchise. He currently sits at 57 catches and 795 yards on the season. If you count his rushing touchdown from Sunday, he has five total touchdowns so far on the season. He has missed a game, so, he is averaging a little more than five catches a game and 72 yards per game. If we follow that formula through the end of the season, that will be 82 catches and 1155 yards on the season. It might also be as many as seven total touchdowns.
In five seasons in the NFL, Collins will be at 300 catches and over 4300 yards receiving. That puts him behind the pace that Johnson and Hopkins set, but not everyone can be a Hall of Fame receiver. It is in this vein that we look at the performance of Jayden Higgins. Receiver is one of the positions where players often struggle to get acclimated to the NFL game. All three of the previous number one receivers got off to relatively slow starts in their careers.
So, what we can do is look at the rookie seasons for each of those receivers and compare it to the season that Higgins has put up. Is he destined to be a similar receiver or will he be a different kind of receiver? Let’s take a look at the numbers and see how he compares with the three big receivers from franchise history.
Andre Johnson: 119 Targets, 66 catches, 55% catch rate, 976 yards, 8.2 yards per target, 4 TD
Deandre Hopkins: 91 targets, 52 catches, 57% catch rate, 802 yards, 8.8 yards per target, 2 TD
Nico Collins: 60 targets, 33 catches, 55% catch rate, 446 yards, 7.4 yards per target, 1 TD
Jayden Higgins: 50 targets, 32 catches, 54% catch rate, 359 yards, 7.2 yard per target, 4 TD
Past AVG: 90 targets, 50 catches, 56% catch rate, 741 yards, 8.2 yards per target, 2 TD
So, based on the average, Higgins would need to get 18 catches in the next five games to get to that average for catches on the season. He is catching a higher percentage of targets for fewer yards per target. So, he is a different kind of receiver than Johnson and Hopkins to this point, but it is also a different kind of offense than those two played in. The passing game is quicker and is predicated more on yards after the catch.
Obviously, the key is what happens in year two. Both Johnson and Hopkins eclipsed 1000 yards in year two. Collins eclipsed 1200 yards in year three. No one should ever give a definitive statement on draft grades through year one. We won’t know what Higgins ultimately is until after year three. We don’t know if he will be just a solid second wide receiver or whether he can turn into a Tee Higgins to a Nico Collins Ja’marr Chase.
Grading a draft is not an easy task. In economics we have a concept called “opportunity costs.” The general idea is that we have to look at everything that was possible with that selection. So, it’s not simply whether Higgins is a good football player or not. It is also what was available at other positions at that portion of the draft. For instance, if we determine that the Texans are deficient at center or guard then were there any solid guard or center prospects available at that portion of the draft?
We could also look at wide receivers themselves to see if he was the best receiver available at that point in the draft. I’m not doing that at this point because we want to wait until year two or three to do that. However, the way he has been performing lately, he looks like the best receiver available at that portion of the draft. He also looks like a useful player. The best you can hope for in any draft is to get a handful of useful players and it looks like the team has done that so far.