SportsLine NFL expert Jeff Hochman’s betting system did not hit in Week 13 for the Tennessee Titans and the Las Vegas Raiders but he’s finding compelling evidence to go back to the well in Week 14 of the 2025 NFL season. Here’s a look at what Hochman is lining up for this week’s schedule when it comes to his betting system, which looks at underdogs in games where there isn’t projected to be much scoring. 

NFL underdogs with low totals (over/under 42 or less)Win Rate: 206-153-10 ATS (57.3%)Sample Size: Since 2018Criteria: Underdogs of 6.5 or more points with a total of 42 or lessEdge: Weeks 10 to 15

Why does this work?

My job involves researching the best NFL systems that have a proven track record of generating profits. I focus on systems with a win rate of at least 60%. There aren’t many options in Week 14, so we’ll revisit this system that went 0-2 last week.

When the total is 42 points or lower, the betting market expects a defensive battle or limitations in offensive performance. However, sportsbooks often do not adjust point spreads to reflect this lower scoring expectation. A larger point spread in a game with a total of 42 points or less represents a significantly greater percentage of the expected final score compared to a 6.5-point spread in a game with a total of 50 points. The betting market prices in the favorite’s superiority as if normal scoring will occur, but the low total constrains how many points the superior team can actually generate. This has always been one of the sharpest NFL betting systems for underdogs, especially as the season progresses.

Week 14 qualifiers

New Orleans Saints +8.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Confidence: 4 out of 5 

This total is currently set at 42.5 points. Watch for any dips in this total; otherwise, at 42.5 points, it won’t qualify. I just wanted to bring it to your attention.

The Buccaneers dominated New Orleans on the scoreboard with a convincing 23-3 victory as 4-point road favorites in Week 8. The Saints outgained Tampa Bay 275-212, but a -3 turnover differential hampered their efforts. Tampa Bay has won seven of the previous ten matchups, but the Bucs are just 5-5 against the spread. The Bucs are 0-4 ATS since defeating New Orleans.

Both teams trend heavily toward the Under, which makes taking the points very appealing. Seven of the last 10 meetings have gone Under the total, and the Saints are 3-8-1 to the Under this season. New Orleans’ injury report looks concerning. Wide receiver Chris Olave is dealing with back spasms, tackle Taliese Fuaga has a new ankle injury, running back Alvin Kamara has injuries to both his knee and ankle and safety Justin Reid is also out with a knee injury. None of these players practiced on Wednesday. All of these injuries are baked into the line.

The Buccaneers’ secondary has struggled recently, but it’ll face a Saints offense ranked 30th in scoring offense at just 15.5 points per game. However, the Saints’ passing defense operates at a significantly higher level than Tampa Bay’s secondary. New Orleans ranks seventh in passing defense, while the Buccaneers check in at a vulnerable 29th. Most of the Buccaneers’ advantage is reduced by familiarity in division games.

Las Vegas Raiders +7.5 vs. Denver Broncos | Confidence: 3 out of 5

Here we go again with the Raiders, who pop up in this article weekly. They were +8.5 when these teams met in Denver, with the Broncos escaping with a narrow 3-point win in Week 11. Fast forward three weeks and they are getting +7.5 points at home. It reveals everything you need to know about the oddsmakers’ perception of Las Vegas.

The talent gap between these franchises is substantial. Denver stands at 10-2 with a +66 point differential while Las Vegas sits at 2-10 with a -129 point differential. The Broncos are just 5-6-1 ATS this season, while the Raiders are 3-8-1 ATS. My model considers Denver to be one of the most overrated 10-2 teams in recent history. It’s just so hard to support this Raiders team right now, with a 1-9 SU record and a 2-8 ATS mark in the last ten games.

The main reason the Broncos are 7.5-point favorites is their elite defense, which targets Las Vegas’ most significant weakness. Denver has recorded 51 sacks through Week 13. The Broncos use a defensive scheme under coordinator Vance Joseph that emphasizes man coverage on 63% of plays, which is significantly higher than the league average, while maintaining a blitz rate of only 27.3%. This means Denver generates pressure through alignment and edge talent rather than five-man rushes.

I liked Denver in the first meeting, thinking the Raiders couldn’t score. I was right but the Broncos’ offense is unpredictable. Denver has won three games in which the team scored 18 points or fewer. Las Vegas tends to play the Broncos closely, covering eight of the last 10 meetings, five of which were in the underdog role. Denver may be looking ahead to its home contest against Green Bay next Sunday as it plays its second consecutive road game.