At long last, the New England Patriots’ bye week is here. For the second year in a row the Patriots have the latest bye week in the NFL, Week 14.
That might have been the toughest part of the Patriots’ schedule so far. But, they worked through the grind and are now in great position heading into the stretch run, sitting at 11-2 holding onto the top seed in the AFC and having a chance to clinch the AFC East with a win over the Buffalo Bills when they return from the bye next Sunday.
The bye week also provides a good chance to step back and look at the big picture after the week-to-week nature the team has been in so far. This week’s Patriots Mailbag reflects that, with questions covering a wide range of topics. Let’s get started…
No, I did not. I had them at nine or 10 wins. What’s the difference? There looked to be more winnable games on their schedule, but realistically even the best teams don’t win every single game they should. Consistency is one of the hardest things to master in the NFL, and an off day or two can create upsets.
That’s where the Patriots deserve a ton of credit. It’s not just the level of play they’ve shown this year, but the consistency of which they’ve shown it. After a couple of bumps early in the season (that Week 1 Raiders game sure does look weirder every week, doesn’t it?) they’ve been steady for over two months now. The closest they came to a slip-up was against the Bengals, but they managed to pull that one out after an early 10-point deficit.
This is something I discussed with David Andrews on the Patriots Hub Podcast earlier this week. Realistically when you get down near the goal line, you want to be able to run the football. Yet, the Patriots haven’t gotten the necessary push to do so. This issue extends beyond the goal line – the Patriots have struggled in short-yardage situations in the middle of the field as well. They’re actually tied for 25th in the league at converting 3rd/4th & 1 plays, at 51.2% (although they rank eighth and second respectively in third and fourth down conversion percentage overall).
A receiver with more size obviously wouldn’t hurt, but Drake Maye has shown good touch on fades at times and they’ve still been able to score on a few of those plays. Still, it’s a low-percentage throw and not something you want to count on.
At tackle, that should be Will Campbell’s job whenever he’s ready to come back. He was playing well before the injury, and it should take more than one game from Vederian Lowe for the team to consider a change. Campbell has looked like a true professional all year, and I trust his ability to be ready.
As for the guard spot, rust shouldn’t be an issue as current reporting projects Jared Wilson to be back before the playoffs (the team also didn’t place him on IR last week when they did Campbell, which could be a sign they don’t expect him to miss four or more games). That being said, Ben Brown played well once again filling in for him last week.
It does look like the Patriots are managing Stefon Diggs’ snaps right now. The last two weeks he played 47% of the offensive plays, his first two games of the year under 50%.
Diggs hasn’t been on the injury report, so that’s not necessarily injury related. It’s possible the Patriots are simply managing the workload of an older player – something Mike Vrabel has talked about being a consideration this season.
But to your point, Diggs is still on the field and coming up in big spots. Of this three catches against the Giants two went for first downs, and a third set up a 3rd & 1.
After signing Marcus Jones to a contract extension last month, the Patriots’ list of pending free agents is thin at just six players. That list is highlighted by K’Lavon Chaisson, Khyiris Tonga, and Jaylinn Hawkins.
With a shorter list of pending free agents the Patriots might have some more flexibility to work on extensions. This offseason the 2023 draft class becomes extension eligible. That includes Christian Gonzalez, Kayshon Boutte, and DeMario Douglas. Gonzalez is an obvious extension candidate. Boutte’s situation will be an interesting one, given he’s a sixth-round pick who didn’t have significant production right away. Maye won’t be extension eligible until the 2027 offseason.
Cory Durden has been one of the players on this Patriots team that has exceeded expectations, but he didn’t look to be in for a major role when the team added him after roster cuts. He’s been good as a rotational player, but that’s a long way from being the impact player that Christian Barmore is. Both Durden and Farmer are good depth players, but they’re not replacements for Barmore.
If we’re going to look ahead – pass rusher, right tackle, safety, linebacker, running back, tight end, and a coverage-dictating wide receiver are needs for the Patriots this offseason. Some like right tackle, tight end, and wide receiver make more sense as draft picks though. Pass rusher and a linebacker/safety that can cover tight ends are two logical spots to fill through free agency. Running back could be too in what’s expected to be a strong free agency class at the position.
You’re going to want to direct this one to @_TyAnderson. He’ll give you a much better answer than I can.