The circumstances are about as ideal as could be for a potential J.J. McCarthy bounce-back performance this weekend. The Vikings are playing at home, which is still theoretically helpful even if McCarthy is 0-3 in his career at U.S. Bank Stadium. Their opponent is the 3-9 Washington Commanders, who have lost seven in a row and might have the NFL’s worst defense at this moment.
The Commanders haven’t won a game in two months. Since Week 6, they’ve gone 0-7 with a -94 point differential that is the NFL’s worst. They’ve allowed 31.7 points per game in that span and rank dead last in opponent EPA (expected points added) per play.
This is a Commanders defense that doesn’t consistently get after the quarterback, ranking 29th in pressure rate over the last two months. Dorance Armstrong was their top pass rusher, but he suffered a season-ending injury in Week 7. Their leaders in pressures are journeyman veteran Jacob Martin and 36-year-old Von Miller, who is nearing the end of the line in his career.
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It’s also a Commanders defense that doesn’t create many takeaways; they’re tied for second-to-last in the NFL with just seven of them all season. Marshon Lattimore, their top cornerback who has one of their six interceptions, is on injured reserve. So is second-round rookie Trey Amos, another starter at CB. That leaves Mike Sainristil and veteran linebacker Bobby Wagner as the only healthy players on the defense with at least one INT.
All of that information brings us to this conclusion: If McCarthy can’t at least put together a decent performance this Sunday, it’ll be time to crank up the panic/concern meter even higher. There’s simply no better setup for a quality quarterback performance than facing this Washington defense at home. It’s unclear if Donovan Jackson and Aaron Jones will play, but neither absence would be a valid excuse for another poor game. Christian Darrisaw will be back, which matters far more. Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson, and Jalen Nailor are all healthy.
Kevin O’Connell laid out the directive for McCarthy on Wednesday: Just go play quarterback and make good decisions. Don’t worry about mechanics or overthink things. That can wait for the offseason. Just go read the defense, throw the ball to your playmakers, and make sure to slide or get out of bounds if you decide to scramble.
Most importantly, he needs to take care of the football. McCarthy has six touchdown passes and ten interceptions in his first six NFL starts. This can’t be another two-pick game from him. There’s no reason that should happen against this defense.
McCarthy showed plenty of flashes throughout training camp and in his first five games before the disaster in Green Bay. The stage is set for the best game of his career (the bar for that basically being 200 passing yards and a touchdown or two without an interception). If it doesn’t happen this week, it’ll become increasingly hard to believe that it ever will.
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