Is it time for the Raiders to move on from Pete Carroll?

NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport confirmed this week that Carroll is on the hot seat in Las Vegas, but it seems like most around the team still believe the Raiders want to give him another year.

Carroll has taken a lot of criticism in his first year with the Raiders, but from the standpoint of in-game decisions, he has performed as well or better than most of his predecessors.

For example, from an analytics standpoint, the game hasn’t passed by the 74-year-old head coach when it comes to decision-making on fourth down.

The graphic below from The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin suggests Carroll has been the NFL’s no. 1 decision maker in term of what analytics say to do on fourth down.

But while it’s encouraging to see Carroll making good decisions on fourth down, it seems like he is still held captive by a defensive scheme that many consider to be outdated.

A decade ago, Carroll’s ‘Legion of Boom’ defenses were known for their heavy Cover 3 tendencies, but the vast majority of defensive coaches have moved away from heavy Cover 3 game plans because they require a highly effective four-man pass rush and offenses have learned how to attack the Cover 3.

The Raiders don’t have an effective pass rush, and they haven’t been good in their soft zone coverages this year.

Nevertheless, Carroll’s defense has been trending toward more Cover 3 concepts as the season moves on, and in the last six weeks no team has come close to running as much Cover 3 as the Raiders.

According to Fantas Points Data, the Raiders have run Cover 3 on 55 percent of pass plays in the last six weeks and that’s 11 percent higher than the next closest team.

It’s no secret that Carroll has been a big influence on Patrick Graham’s defense this year, and one of the strongest indicators has been the shift in coverages.

Last year, Graham called Cover 3 concepts on about 26 percent of defensive snaps and that was right around the league medium. Now the Raiders call more Cover 3 concepts than any team in the league.

If Carroll returns in 2026, he will presumably want to build on those Cover 3 tendencies, and that isn’t particularly exciting.

So while the focus of the next four weeks will undoubtedly be on the Raiders’ offense, the defense belongs under the microscope, as well.

If the Raiders are going to go into the 2026 season with a Cover 3 heavy defense, it would be nice to see the Cover 3 hold back a few offenses before the 2025 season comes to a merciful end.

x: @raidersbeat