The numbers say that the Colts playoff chances will take a big hit if they cannot beat the Jaguars in Week 14.
Sunday’s Week 14 matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars comes with a lot at stake for the Indianapolis Colts.
For starters, the winner of this game takes control of the AFC South division race, holding sole possession of first place. The victor will also have the better division record and hold the head-to-head tie-breaker.
However, according to PFF, it’s not only the division lead that is on the line for the Colts, but their playoff chances could be as well.
With a win over the Jaguars, the Colts’ playoff chances sit at 78%. But a loss, and they plummet to only 34%.
As the current sixth seed in the AFC, the Colts share the same 8-4 record with the fifth-seed Chargers and the seventh-seed Bills.
Just on the outside looking in of the playoff picture are the Texans at 7-5. Houston beat the Colts this past Sunday, but the two teams will meet once more this season.
The Colts have lost their last two games and three of their last four. Both sides of the ball have areas where they can improve, but getting back into the win column starts with better play from the offense.
Can’t put it any simpler than this: The Colts’ offense is unraveling at the worst time.
Week 1-8 / Since Week 9
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Points: 33.8 (1st) / 21.8 (18th)
EPA: 102.5 (1st) / -0.96 (16th)
Yds/gm: 385.3 (1) / 355.8 (11th)
3rd downs: 45.3% (4th) / 32.7% (26th)
— Stephen Holder (@HolderStephen) December 1, 2025