It’s not hyperbole to call tonight the season’s first unofficial playoff game. The Lions (7-5) and Cowboys (6-5-1) sit outside the playoff picture. The odds are against them, too; our Simulator gives Detroit just a 30 percent chance at the postseason, with Dallas at 23 percent.

Inside: The implications of the crucial Cowboys-Lions game, Dianna Russini dishes on head-coaching candidates and an update on two recovering star quarterbacks

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Pivotal night for the NFC

Barring a tie, the result of “Thursday Night Football” will drastically shape the remainder of 2025 for both teams.

If Detroit wins: Its playoff odds jump to 46 percent, while the Cowboys’ chances fall to 9 percent, all but eliminating them.
If Dallas wins: Its odds bump up to 41 percent, and the Lions drop to a nearly elimination-level 13 percent.

Campbell’s Lions are three-point home favorites in the game beginning at 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video. Here’s what I’m watching for:

Detroit’s high-powered offense, sans stars. Tight end Sam LaPorta is on the IR, while star receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown (ankle) missed every practice this week and likely sits. Expect the Lions to lean heavily on Jahmyr Gibbs and Jameson Williams while rookie receiver Isaac TeSlaa gets more looks.

Dallas’ passing offense. The Cowboys’ passer rating is below average against Cover 1 defenses, and the Lions lean heavily on that physical, press-heavy style due to their talented secondary, which has allowed the fewest yards of separation in the NFL. But George Pickens doesn’t need separation, and should be peppered with targets tonight.

The Lions defensive line. Detroit must get more from this group. As our Lions beat writer Colton Pouncy explained, Detroit has the slowest time to pressure in the NFL and is allowing the fifth-highest explosive pass rate for opposing quarterbacks when under pressure. Prescott has led the league in yards per dropback when pressured.

The Cowboys’ improved run defense. Defensive tackle Quinnen Williams has transformed everything. Allowing 1.83 yards before contact (29th) from Weeks 1 to 9, this group now allows a league-best 0.32, having successfully limited Saquon Barkley (2.2 yards per carry) and Ashton Jeanty (1.2). The interior of Detroit’s offensive line is its weakest link, and that’s where Dallas is strongest.

Winners of three straight, the Cowboys have the momentum and maybe the talent edge, given Detroit is also missing All-Pro safety Kerby Joseph. I’ll take Dallas by six. Let the upsets continue.

For more, my colleagues Jon Machota and Colton Pouncy, who cover these two teams, shared an insightful game preview here. Over to Dianna for a word on 2026 coaching candidates.

What Dianna’s Hearing: Few standouts so far

Last January, Ben Johnson and Mike Vrabel were at the top of every team’s head-coaching wishlist. Through 13 weeks, it’s easy to see why. Johnson and Vrabel have the Bears and Patriots atop their respective conferences in December.

So who could be the 2026 hot-shot candidate? We’re still waiting for that name to emerge.

I would expect Kansas City offensive coordinator (and former Bears head coach) Matt Nagy to garner interest.
Same for veteran defensive coordinators Lou Anarumo (Colts) and Robert Saleh (49ers).
Younger defensive names, including the Jaguars’ Anthony Campanile and the Rams’ Chris Shula, could generate buzz as well.
I’ll be interested to see if the Giants make a call to Washington, looking into whether Kliff Kingsbury wants to work with a different young NFC East quarterback: Jaxson Dart.

From what I can gather, at this point in the cycle, no candidate has separated themselves from the pack quite yet. Back to you, Jacob.

Burrow and Herbert: Tough as they come

Andrew Luck felt invincible, until he wasn’t. His shocking retirement came at age 29, after six seasons, 86 regular-season games and 174 sacks, with a swath of punishing injuries to show for it.

Could Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert relate?

The 28-year-old Burrow has taken 28 more sacks than Luck in 14 fewer games, and he’s had at least four significant injuries across six seasons, ranging from a shredded knee as a rookie to a significant turf-toe injury this year.
In six seasons with the Chargers, the (somehow still only) 27-year-old Herbert’s taken seven more sacks than Burrow, albeit in more games. Among other injuries, Herbert’s broken his collarbone, fractured a rib, broken some fingers and, just last week, broken a bone in the back of his non-throwing hand.

Yet Herbert’s only missed four games in his NFL career (Burrow’s missed 23, though that isn’t meant to imply he should’ve played without, you know, a knee), and threw a touchdown right after the latest break. As my colleague Daniel Popper wrote in his story on how Herbert plans to play on Monday, just days after ongoing surgery to stabilize the fracture, the Chargers quarterback is a fighter.

💬 “He fractured his rib cartilage in Week 2 of 2022 and played the next week. He suffered a high ankle sprain in Week 2 of last year and played the next week. Herbert broke his left middle finger in Week 4 of 2023 and did not miss a game.”

As for Burrow, how back is he? The 4-8 Bengals’ franchise quarterback made an emotional return on Thanksgiving, winning despite completing just 52.2 percent of his passes. In Derrik Klassen’s Quick Outs column, he explains that the league’s second-highest-paid player was rusty, for sure, but was better than that completion percentage suggests.

💬 “Truthfully, I was worried that Burrow had rushed back and wouldn’t look stable in the pocket right away. That couldn’t have been further from the truth. Burrow far outplayed his simple counting stats. Maybe it’s too little, too late for that version of him to turn the Bengals’ season around, but it’s nice to see him play at that level nonetheless.”

Tomorrow, we’ll preview the weekend’s biggest games. For more on that, Austin Mock shares six games that could shape the 2025 postseason, all occurring this week.

Extra Points

📈 Who you got? Drake Maye or Matthew Stafford? With five weeks to go, The Athletic compared the MVP credentials of the NFL’s top two passers.

▶️ Yesterday’s most-clicked: Dane Brugler’s first 2026 mock draft, which has six receivers going in the first round.

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